Texas Fall 2017

[weatherdude1108]

This weeks forecast is killing me. 51 tomorrow and then 80s, including some upper 80s through the rest of the week.

No kidding! I saw the latest discussion from our weather service. Looks like an iffy time for tricky treating, then the temps revert back to September averages.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Showers increase further Tuesday (Halloween) evening into night as
lift is the strongest due to the weakening upper level low passing
nearby along with the deepest moisture. Evening activities may be
impacted due to the rain and possible isolated thunderstorms. The
upper level low gets sheared as it moves off to the east with lift
weakening allowing rains to end from west to east on Wednesday. Zonal
flow aloft prevails the remainder of the week with an upper level
ridge building north from Mexico next weekend. Southerly lower level
flow prevails, as well. There may be enough lift and moisture for
isolated showers northeast of Austin Thursday night as a weak upper
level disturbance moves across Texas. Well above normal temperatures
are expected Thursday through next weekend. Some high temperatures
may approach record levels.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[CaptinCrunch]

I love these type discussions when your really not sure what the models are picking up on or not...lol

NWS FTW

By Thursday, it appears as if a dryline will begin to sharpen
across our western counties as a weak surface low materializes
near the Rolling Plains ahead of a stalling cold front in
Kansas/Oklahoma. This dryline looks to diurnally oscillate to
and fro along the I-35 corridor Thursday and Friday, and could
serve as a focus for some afternoon shower and thunderstorm
development. Run-to-run model consistency has been lackluster to
say the least during this extended portion of the forecast, made
more difficult by the presence of several subtle and fast-moving
perturbations within the flow aloft.

One such disturbance could zip across the region late on
Thursday. GFS forecast soundings reveal the presence of surface-
based CAPE values on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg across our
easternmost counties where dewpoints will be climbing towards 70
degrees during the afternoon and evening hours. Add this mid-
level wave to the mix, and effective deep layer shear values of 40
kts or so are also realized. Several days of southwesterly flow in
the 700-850 mb layer will, however, transport a pretty stout
capping inversion above the roughly 1-km thick layer of moist
air. The convective parameterization schemes of coarse resolution
guidance such as the ECMWF and GFS seem hesitant to convect both
Thursday and Friday afternoons, and this cap seems to be playing a
central role. Given the low chances of pinning the spatiotemporal
overlap of these surface and upper-level features, 20% afternoon-
evening thunderstorm chances east of I-35/35E will suffice for
now. Given the shear and instability parameters, the potential for
some severe storms cannot be discounted here during the end of
the week, but I wouldn`t hang my hat on any individual model
solution at this point given these predictability issues.

Dry and warm conditions are anticipated next weekend as southerly
winds continue to keep an unseasonably warm and moist airmass in
place across North and Central Texas.

[Brent]

lol GFS has a 90 for DFW Thursday

89 Friday

The all time November high is 89..

[Ntxw]

Man, its crazy how easy it is to hit 90 or more now year long. Oct has seen some extreme temp swings second half

[Tireman4]

Man, its crazy how easy it is to hit 90 or more now year long. Oct has seen some extreme temp swings second half

Sigh....

[JDawg512]

This rain miser will be in celebration mode tomorrow evening. My famous Halloween display (by my neighborhood standards) that we've been doing for 20 years will have the added natural special effect of rain. It will surely help amplify the 3D special effects projector that we will be adding for the first time. Sure there may not be as many trick or treaters out but a little rain is not going to keep them all away. This is Austin after all, Halloween is in our blood.

[weatherdude1108]

Hoping my 5-year old daughter won't mind a little rain tomorrow evening while being dressed up. I figure we'll all carry umbrellas. Should make for an adventure!

000
FXUS64 KEWX 301959
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 PM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

Main weather focus is centered on the increasing rain chances for
Halloween (Tuesday) afternoon and evening. Showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms could occur during the afternoon and into the
evening/overnight hours along and east of the U.S. 281 corridor and
especially along and east of I-35. While no weather hazards are
expected, with many outdoor planned activities, caution is advised as
some thunderstorms and pockets of moderate rain could make certain
activities more vulnerable to impact.

Current water vapor and RAP analysis depict dry air over the region
with a modestly strong shortwave trough over southern California and
a long-wave trough across the Great Lakes. The surface high pressure
system in the Gulf of Mexico is aiding low-level south flow with the
initial hint of moisture return to the area. However, this south
flow will be short lived as the trough across the Great Lakes region
will shift a cold front into the area overnight. The temperature and
dewpoint gradient will increase right over the region (frontogenesis)
early Tuesday morning. Cooler, denser air will filter south through
the day Tuesday yielding abundant cloud cover and cooler conditions.
Given the shallow nature of the front, the 925-850mb flow remains
south to southwest yielding isentropic upglide lift. Greater
saturation of the low levels coupled with this lift looks to best
align by Tuesday afternoon. With limited upright instability, general
showers are mostly expected during the afternoon. However, as
evening approaches, greater amounts of dynamic lift will overspread
the region as the shortwave, now over CA, swings across Texas 24-30
hours from now. The combination of the upglide plus the dynamic lift
could result in a few pockets of moderate showers and isolated
thunderstorms along and east of U.S. 281 halloween evening. Have
placed the highest rain chances 50-80% along and east of the I-35
corridor during this time frame.

As the shortwave trough passes through Texas by early Wednesday and
with lift decreasing, shower coverage will reduce. The front will
initially slide south of the region Tuesday but by Wednesday slide
back north as a warm front, allowing for moist and warmer air to
return.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

No large highlights in the long-term outside the above normal
temperatures expected through the late week and weekend with limited
to no rain chances expected through Monday. Some high temperature
records could be challenged late week as we return to a warm pattern.

The front will shift back north over the region Wednesday and
dissipate as near H5 zonal flow occurs across south-central Texas.
Dewpoints are projected across multi-model guidance to increase back
into the 60s by Thursday. A briskly moving shortwave will traverse
Texas and act to sharpen a temperature/dewpoint gradient Thursday but
sounding analysis shows a stout cap in place and likely should keep
showers/storms at bay across the region.

For Friday through the weekend, a weak sub-tropical H5 ridge will
develop over north Mexico into south Texas and help aid south to
southwest mid-level flow. This warm pattern will drive temperatures
up to near record levels in the upper 80s to low 90s. A pattern
change looks to be on the horizon early to mid next week but models
are not fully in agreement on front or trough strength.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Forecasted rain chances decreasing for tomorrow and temps are warmer for the rest of the week. Terrible.

[CaptinCrunch]

Forecasted rain chances decreasing for tomorrow and temps are warmer for the rest of the week. Terrible.

Please accompany Sir William on a private tour of the "Pit of Misery" for you sir..

DILLY DILLY

[CaptinCrunch]

.LONG TERM...
/Tuesday Onward/

The main focus of the forecast is Tuesday afternoon and evening
(Halloween) with trick-or-treaters eager to know if they`ll need
an umbrella. There will be some substantial isentropic lift ahead
of the second stronger shortwave progged to move through the
region Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a result, a swath of
showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms should develop across
West TX Tuesday morning. This should arrive in our western zones
by late morning and move eastward through the forecast area during
the afternoon and evening hours. While many locations are likely
to receive rain at some point on Tuesday, a bit of good news is
that this activity should be fairly fast moving as westerly mid-
level flow increases to 50-60 kts associated with the shortwave.
The back edge of the rain shield may be approaching the I-35
corridor by as early as 7-8pm which would mean some folks would
still have the opportunity for rain-free holiday festivities
during the evening hours. However, there will be an area probably
along or east of I-35 that will see rain for much of the evening
and into the overnight hours. Another concern of course is the
potential for lightning. Lapse rates are expected to be rather
unimpressive, and therefore so is the elevated instability, but
there will still be the potential for a couple lightning strikes
within the broad precipitation shield. Temperatures throughout
Tuesday will be considerably cooler than today, in part due to the
cooler post-frontal air but also due to mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures Tuesday evening will predominantly be in the 50s with
some 40s possible across our northwestern zones. Rain will
continue overnight across our eastern zones, but should be
tapering off by early Wednesday morning.

[Tejas89]

FWD doesn't have the record highs in the afternoon package. Although well above normal through the weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

Forecasted rain chances decreasing for tomorrow and temps are warmer for the rest of the week. Terrible.

Please accompany Sir William on a private tour of the "Pit of Misery" for you sir..

DILLY DILLY

[Brent]

Temps could be pushing 90 for several days Thursday through next Monday.

Gonna have to be some good cold later in the month or we know where that heads.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are pretty "meh" all the way to mid-Dec with above normal temps and below normal precipitation...

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro completed it's slow fold to the the other models. It has really not been good in the medium range when it comes to precipitation placement, esp. for the DFW area.

[bubba hotep]

Wow, talk about scary! 00z Euro forecast highs starting Thursday the 2nd, 91, 88, 90, 87, 89, 90!

[CaptinCrunch]

Friday through the weekend looks to be quiet as mid level ridging
builds back into the region. Temperatures will continue to be
warm with afternoon highs in the mid 80s areawide. This is about
10-12 degrees above normal for early November. There is some
indication of the upper ridging breaking down by the middle of
next week with another front sliding into the area.

Local forecast has Thursday as the warmest in the 5 day @ 89, but then it's a slow decline in the highs thru the weekend with highs in the lower 80's. In the 10 day high temps are back down into the mid & upper 70's beginning on Tuesday next week thru Friday with chance of rain starting on Wednesday.

Nothing unusual to start November, and also we set the clocks back to daylight savings this weekend.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wow, talk about scary! 00z Euro forecast highs starting Thursday the 2nd, 91, 88, 90, 87, 89, 90!

Going to be a pretty miserable opening weekend for rifle season. Hot and a full moon never provides good results.

[DonWrk]

Might not see a freeze the entire month of November!

[JDawg512]

Happy Halloween! I hope everyone has a fun but safe evening. Enjoy this weather while you can since it's not sticking around for very long.