ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Associated with the extratropical cyclone in the mid-Atlantic.

[Newbie]

What does this mean? I didn't think storms generally formed there this time of year. If this turns into something, is there any prediction of where it would head this time of year? Thanks!

[CyclonicFury]

This could develop into a short-lived, highly sheared tropical (or subtropical) depression/storm. I don't see this becoming anything strong, and it should remain far from any land areas. Models may not be able to accurately resolve systems like this (as we saw with Lee's regeneration, which no model predicted much at all).

[Nimbus]

Could be the last tropical system to watch in 2017?

[Alyono]

Could be the last tropical system to watch in 2017?

no, likely 1 more Caribbean system

[Alyono]

What does this mean? I didn't think storms generally formed there this time of year. If this turns into something, is there any prediction of where it would head this time of year? Thanks!

Development over cold waters is typical of late fall and winter

[wxman57]

This one isn't likely to get classified. I think the season is over.

[SFLcane]

Could be the last tropical system to watch in 2017?

no, likely 1 more Caribbean system

Na...season just about over now.

[CyclonicFury]

Could be the last tropical system to watch in 2017?

no, likely 1 more Caribbean system

Na...season just about over now.

A majority of Atlantic hurricane seasons have a storm form in November, but they usually don't affect the U.S.

[TheStormExpert]

Season’s more than likely just about over if it isn’t already. We’ve lucked out this October when compared to how busy and intense August and September were, hopefully next season isn’t the same.

[sky1989]

This one isn't likely to get classified. I think the season is over.

I respectfully disagree. Philippe this year reminds me of Nicole in 2010, and we had 5 more hurricanes after that point that year (granted Nicole was a month earlier in the end of September). Being a La Nina year I'd be very surprised if we didn't have at least slightly more activity to come in November and December, although it's highly unlikely the U.S would be hit.

[WeatherGuesser]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak, non-tropical area
of low pressure located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
remain disorganized and are displaced well to the east of the low's
center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds. Subtropical
or tropical development of the low is not expected while it moves
westward at 5 to 10 mph during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[EquusStorm]

Are we seriously discounting any possibility of November development this early on? A hyperactive early La Nina season without a November storm would be extremely abnormal, statistically.

[CyclonicFury]

Are we seriously discounting any possibility of November development this early on? A hyperactive early La Nina season without a November storm would be extremely abnormal, statistically.

Agreed. I don't get why the month of November often gets treated like an offseason month. It's had more hurricanes than July even!

[wxman57]

I wouldn't rule out another semi-tropical storm in the Subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks (like 94L), but I think more likely than not, the season is over.

[CyclonicFury]

I wouldn't rule out another semi-tropical storm in the Subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks (like 94L), but I think more likely than not, the season is over.

Is there a specific reason as to why you don't think November will have much, if any, activity?

[wxman57]

I wouldn't rule out another semi-tropical storm in the Subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks (like 94L), but I think more likely than not, the season is over.

Is there a specific reason as to why you don't think November will have much, if any, activity?

Strong shear developing across the Basin is the primary reason. Doesn't matter what the state of La Nina is if the atmosphere across the Atlantic is very hostile toward development. I've been following the tropics closely for 50+ years. The Atlantic has that end-of-season look now. Can't rule out a stray semi-tropical storm in the open subtropical Atlantic, I know.

There is a chance that something might develop over the next 2-3 weeks in the SW Caribbean, another place to watch for November development. The long-range GFS, which you can almost never trust, is indicating a hurricane there in 12-14 days. We'll see about that...

[galaxy401]

I wouldn't rule out another semi-tropical storm in the Subtropical Atlantic over the next couple of weeks (like 94L), but I think more likely than not, the season is over.

Is there a specific reason as to why you don't think November will have much, if any, activity?

Strong shear developing across the Basin is the primary reason. Doesn't matter what the state of La Nina is if the atmosphere across the Atlantic is very hostile toward development. I've been following the tropics closely for 50+ years. The Atlantic has that end-of-season look now. Can't rule out a stray semi-tropical storm in the open subtropical Atlantic, I know.

There is a chance that something might develop over the next 2-3 weeks in the SW Caribbean, another place to watch for November development. The long-range GFS, which you can almost never trust, is indicating a hurricane there in 12-14 days. We'll see about that...

Makes the 1932 Cuba hurricane look even more insane. Active in the Caribbean during the first week of November and was a category 5 for 3 days straight.