AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7N 79.5E, APPROXIMATELY 124 NM NNW OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 300909Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALED DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 99B IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT) WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT LEADING TO HIGHER SHEAR VALUES (>25 KT) IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTH. SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION WITH SRI LANKA AND THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT IS DISADVANTAGEOUS FOR THE DISTURBANCE AT THE MOMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION PERSISTING, BUT DEPICT IT FALLING APART OR ONLY WEAKLY INTENSIFYING SURFACE WINDS AT THE END OF THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD, 4-5 DAYS, DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
