WPAC: DAMREY - Dissipated

[wxman57]

Good chance this will become a typhoon before it reaches Vietnam Saturday morning. Interesting that JTWC is ignoring this system, for which JMA is issuing advisories and calling it a depression.

Not ignored but up to MEDIUM.

Ignoring, in a sense that JTWC issued a TCFA on a weakening 95W while not issuing anything on a clearly organizing 96W. I think 96W will become a TS within the next 12-18 hrs. If we could just get an ASCAT hit, it would be helpful. 96W is the system to watch, not 95W.

[euro6208]

WTPN22 PGTW 312030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310130Z OCT 17//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 310130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 122.0E TO 12.2N 114.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5N 121.4E, 860 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, CURRENTLY
TRANSITING WESTWARD OVER THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AND BROAD MIDLEVEL
TURNING. A 311317Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS ONE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO A CENTER, THOUGH DIFFERENTIATION OF
LOW LEVEL FEATURES IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY IS DIFFICULT DUE TO LAND
EMISSION FROM THE PHILIPPINES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 96W IS LOCATED IN AND MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT
28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DISTURBANCE TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND REACH TS STRENGTH WITHIN SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH VARYING RATES OF DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012030Z.

[doomhaMwx]

Those in Cambodia need to prepare as well... 96W will be mostly a heavy rainfall threat when it arrives there...

[doomhaMwx]

ASCAT caught the LLCC over the Sulu Sea @ around 01Z today... Weak in terms of winds, but it's already a well-defined/closed circulation...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.1N 120.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE VORTICES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 010150Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LLCC.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

28W is here.

WDPN31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
235 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO
CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 1800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (20 TO 30 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 28W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THE JET LOCATED OVER
CHINA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD 28W WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD AND KEEP THE TRACK OF TD 28W WESTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN VIETNAM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AS TD 28W TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA IT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND REMAIN IN
FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS TD 28W APPROACHES THE
UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED OVER CHINA. THIS INTERACTION WILL ALLOW FOR
TD 28W TO INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
VIETNAM JUST AFTER TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL TD 28W WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE INTERACTION WITH LAND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TD 28W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AS IT REMAINS OVER LAND
AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

Upgraded to TS Damrey by JMA.

[doomhaMwx]

Tropical Storm "Damrey"...

TS 1723 (Damrey)
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 2 November 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 2 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°35' (12.6°)
E117°30' (117.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)

[euro6208]

Now Tropical Storm Damrey. Peak of 75 knots (could possibly be higher) before making landfall near Nha Trang, a city with a population close to 500,000.

WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AND ORGANIZE AROUND AN OBSCURED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED
UP WITH THE MOST RECENT BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETRY PASS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW
AND SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS ALSO BEGINNING TO OPEN UP ALONG THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TS 28W WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL REFLECTION
OF THE STR ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA WILL SEAMLESSLY ASSUME
STEERING. AS TS 28W TRACKS OVER THE WARM SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ENHANCED
BY THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AND PEAK TO 75 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER, BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD,
INTERACTION WITH LANDMASS WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. TS 28W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN VIETNAM NEAR NHA
TRANG JUST BEFORE TAU 48, THEN DRAG ACROSS RUGGED TERRAIN INTO
CAMBODIA THEN DISSIPATING OVER EASTERN THAILAND. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Landfall intensity will probably be very close/similar to the intensity of Typhoon Doksuri, from Sept of this year, when it also made landfall over Vietnam...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Landfall intensity will probably be very close/similar to the intensity of Typhoon Doksuri, from Sept of this year, when it also made landfall over Vietnam...

Possibly higher. This may develop a pinhole or much smaller eye than Doksuri and traverse over more favorable conditions

[mrbagyo]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The spiral bands are looking better organised.


Only thing that would keep this system in check appears to be ohc.

[euro6208]

40 knots and peak upwards to 80 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED LOOP ALSO SHOWS A
POSSIBLE FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 020226Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX OF
T3.0 FROM PGTW, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT WIND BARBS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 28W HAS
GOOD OUTFLOW BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS IT TAPS INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TS DAMREY IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 28W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A STR LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS TS 28W TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND EXPERIENCES ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT
WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, EVENTUALLY PEAKING AROUND 80 KNOTS BY TAU
36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND AS IT
APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 48.
CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE INDO CHINA
PENINSULA WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL DISSIPATION
BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 021225

A. TROPICAL STORM 28W (DAMREY)

B. 02/1200Z

C. 13.62N

D. 114.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/27HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .85 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.5 DT. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0812Z 13.08N 116.08E SSMS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

Latest EURO coming in weaker. Only shows a 995 mb storm making landfall over Vietnam.

GFS also weaker...968 mb.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2017 Time : 124000 UTC
Lat : 12:34:23 N Lon : 115:07:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 991.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -78.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.3 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

HWRF much weaker.

[euro6208]

Interesting.