Texas Fall 2017

[Tejas89]

While "snowy" years have always been an exception, a few doses of ice/sleet and some arctic fronts used to be more common each winter. Anyone who's lived in DFW for more than 20 years can attest.

[CaptinCrunch]

2017 Halloween Analogy

October 2017 ended with an average temp of 69.6 degrees which is +2.1 above the monthly mean. October 31st (Halloween) ended with H-60/L-48 which average @ -9, with .04 of precipitation @ DFW airport.

So based on my analogy, if Halloween was colder/warmer than average then the following winter would be the same. Based off the avg temperature of October 31st since 2002 not including 2017, 12 of the last 15 winters were accurate.

Other interesting facts

The last time there was an October that averaged in the 60’s (68.4) and had rain on Halloween was 2013. Winter 2013/14 (Neutral) was the 5th coldest on record (55 freezes) since 1899.
This Winter is forecast to be a (La Nina), so does that mean a warmer/drier winter? The answer is not really! Since 1970 there have been 18 (La Nina) Winters, and only 8 were warmer than average (about 48%).

**NOTE**
Since 1899 there has not been 3 consecutive winters with less than 20 officially recorded freezes. The closest I could find was 1930-1934 where 3 of 4 had 19 or less freezes just not in a row. I also only found 3 times since 1899 that back to back winters had 19 or less freezes. (15/16-16/17), (98/99-99/00), (30/31-31/32)

Cold (La Nina) (# freezes) Average # freezes during Winter for DFW is 32
70/71 (44)
73/74 (31)
75/76 (35)
83/84 (51)
84/85 (39)
88/89 (35)
95/96 (46)
00/01 (46)
08/09 (30)
10/11 (39)

Warm (La Nina)
71/72 (22)
74/75 (25)
98/99 (18)
99/00 (14)
05/06 (21)
07/08 (25)
11/12 (14)
16/17 (11)


So I hereby Proclaim Winter 2017/18 to be colder than average with average precipitation…..DILLY DILLY

[Ntxw]

I like your juju! I actually like your forecast.

There is a difference going on the past few weeks. Sure we're going to get a warm spell, and sure warm spells have been warm of late but this is not the same. There is truly cold air lurking in Canada. The EPO ridge is meandering but fairly stationary over the broad scale. At some point the dam is going to break. It's not like previous seasons where heat just dominates from the pole to the equator on the continent. The east based nina I think will throw a wrench in forecasts. I do see some wave patterns not too different than 2013. Don't forget, ECMWF was looking at a torch Halloween a week ago, that did not happen. Why? Because the dense cold air mass came in a second wave that the model completely missed.

Some kind of front will likely make it down middle of next week.

[Ralph's Weather]

I have no doubt that we will have plenty of cold spells as the -EPO seems to be established. Hopefully a couple of those sync up with a good moisture feed.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hopefully this brief heat spell is the last for 2017, as I see highs in the upper 60's by Wednesday of next week.

The main change in the forecast or potential for additional change
comes on Friday. It was originally thought that persistent west-
southwest flow aloft from 850-700 mb and a generally flat pattern
through the central CONUS would keep things rather warm and dry
across the region on Friday. While this will still be the case for
much of the area, it now appears likely that the passing shortwave
troughs (both tonight and early Friday) will be sufficiently
strong to allow the surface cyclone (currently in southwest
Kansas) to move eastward into eastern Oklahoma during the day on
Friday. This would allow a cold front to seep southward and cross
the Red River early on Friday with some much cooler air behind it.
The 3km NAM is most aggressive with this scenario, but it does
have support from most of the high-resolution guidance which tend
to handle shallow cold fronts much better. The strong west-
southwest flow off the surface should help mix the leading edge of
the cooler air and will limit the southward push through the day.
For now, we have lowered high temperatures across the north and
northwest parts of the CWA into the low to mid 70s. Further
adjustments downward may be needed later today. South of the
front, it will remain warm with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
Precipitation chances look minimal on Friday and Friday evening
even with the frontal boundary in place. Moisture will be high
across the eastern counties, although a stout capping inversion is
expected to remain in place. We can`t rule out some isolated light
showers beneath the cap during this time.

The cooler air will quickly erode on Saturday as stronger
southerly flow prevails. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s
Saturday and Sunday. Another weak front looks like it will
approach the area on Monday and temperatures may edge downward a
few degrees, but it`ll be the middle of next week before any
significant front makes it into the region. A strong shortwave
trough will swing through the northern Plains on Tuesday and allow
a strong cold front to slide south into Texas. This will bring
temperatures back down closer to normal for this time of year.

[bubba hotep]

Also, the 1st half of Nov is looking extremely dry for DFW. Things may at least shift back to seasonally cool by the middle of next week but any big rain seems hard to find with this current pattern.

[Ntxw]

Also, the 1st half of Nov is looking extremely dry for DFW. Things may at least shift back to seasonally cool by the middle of next week but any big rain seems hard to find with this current pattern.

I think our rainy luck ended with the summer. The east based Nina fits well with the wet summers but then very dry fall and winters. Major hurricane hit goes with that ideal as well.

[bubba hotep]

Also, the 1st half of Nov is looking extremely dry for DFW. Things may at least shift back to seasonally cool by the middle of next week but any big rain seems hard to find with this current pattern.

I think our rainy luck ended with the summer. The east based Nina fits well with the wet summers but then very dry fall and winters. Major hurricane hit goes with that ideal as well.

The analogs that I like best are dreadful for Nov, bone dry. Then they show little relief for the winter months, but they do trend colder starting in mid-Nov. So, I would go below normal for both precip and temps. However, the last few years have totally busted any analogs that showed below normal temps.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

I like your juju! I actually like your forecast.

There is a difference going on the past few weeks. Sure we're going to get a warm spell, and sure warm spells have been warm of late but this is not the same. There is truly cold air lurking in Canada. The EPO ridge is meandering but fairly stationary over the broad scale. At some point the dam is going to break. It's not like previous seasons where heat just dominates from the pole to the equator on the continent. The east based nina I think will throw a wrench in forecasts. I do see some wave patterns not too different than 2013. Don't forget, ECMWF was looking at a torch Halloween a week ago, that did not happen. Why? Because the dense cold air mass came in a second wave that the model completely missed.

Not picking on you ntxw - just a general observation. If the GFS blew a forecast, social media would light up about how much the GFS sucks and how superior the ECMWF is. Yet you never see these incidents when the ECMWF blows a forecast.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM only gets DFW to 89 but the latest HRRR run hits 93. It looks like the HRRR is mixing the dry line east a little fast and tends to have a warm bias.

[aggiecutter]

[bubba hotep]

I like '95 and '05 but the QBO removes '08 and '10 from my set.

[Brent]

Euro is near 90 Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with lows barely below the average high in the low 70s...(records, records, and more records), then Wednesday is in the low 50s during the day with maybe some light rain(Halloween-like?)

The GFS DFW lows get close to shattering the warmest November low ever(74, last year), and are above the average high in this stretch

[bubba hotep]

Euro is near 90 Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with lows barely below the average high in the low 70s...(records, records, and more records), then Wednesday is in the low 50s during the day with maybe some light rain(Halloween-like?)

Those high lows are how the anomaly really gets juiced up.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It may be really warm right now but from an outdoors and agricultural perspective, cold weather isn’t far away. Starting today, wasps are trying to get in every nook and cranny everywhere they can. From every small space in my barns, to my tractors, to around the windows, to inside my Well house, to electrical junction boxes and breaker boxes. Usually when this happens cold weather isn’t far away. Nature usually doesn’t lie.

[Brent]

DFW has hit 90 for the first time ever in November

Now every calendar month has hit 90...

[somethingfunny]

DFW has hit 90 for the first time ever in November

Now every calendar month has hit 90...

I wouldn't be surprised if we get one or two more of them this week...

[CaptinCrunch]

I like '95 and '05 but the QBO removes '08 and '10 from my set.

Lose 2005, and the rest is golden

[Brent]

93 at DFW, shattered today's record by 6 degrees already

Edit: 94 at 4pm...

[gpsnowman]

Unreal. I have been running the a/c since I got home from work. It was quite warm inside. Not supposed to happen in November!!!! At some point this month the Canadian dam will break and send Texas a beautiful cold front. Not a cool front but a cold cold cold front. This current pattern sucks and it is making me upset!!!!