Portastorm wrote:Do you like those very technical seasonal forecasts? If so, here's one to check out:
http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1509722707103.pdfThis person is an enthusiast and not a professional met but he/she clearly knows some things. Not sure how accurate it will be but I will say the thoughts in this forecast are fairly similar to Larry Cosgrove's forecast for winter issued last weekend. Seems like January may be the best month for us to experience a good wintry event or two.
Enjoy the reading and if y'all see other forecasts for winter, post 'em in this thread.
Yes, thank you for sharing this information, and as I read it I found several of his "Key" notes to be very intresting regarding QBO progression. The winters he noted 83-84, 00-01 are 2 of the coldest La Nina winters (for NTX), he also noted 62-63, and 81-82 were similar, both of which were colder than average neutral winters. 11-12 was the odd year out as it was top 3 warmest La Nina winters for NTX.
Another intresting area was his take on the AO/NAO with regards to the solar cycle/flux, in his charts he highlighted 5 years in Yellow, 1963, 1977, 1987, 1996 and 2010, ALL cold winters for NTX.
The yellow highlighted years are the 5 years with the combination of: 1) the frontend of
the -QBO (either Neutral & Falling or Negative & Falling), and 2) solar flux minimum.
2018 is also highlighted as the anticipation is that we will add a 6th year to that list this
winter. For the 5 highlighted winters, 16 of 20 months had a -AO/NAO, the highest
percentage for any QBO/Solar Flux combo. The stars aligned during the 09-10 winter as
all solar parameters were very low in concert with a frontend -QBO
He noted 95-96
"QBO wasn’t as far into the negative phase as the other highlighted years"
this was also a cold winter.
Very Intresting indeed!