2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z GFS MUCH weaker with long-range Caribbean development, even pushes back timeframe some.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS and CMC are stronger at 0Z, but are trending more westward. Showing a very strong ridge north of the system
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- CourierPR
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Gatorcane, according to that 12Z GFS, there is strong high pressure to the north. Interesting setup.
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12Z Euro shows a strong ridge over the Eastern US along with lowering pressures in the Caribbean. It also shows a persistent area of vort developing over the SW Caribbean by late next week. We may have one last Caribbean system to watch.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
i want see more support we now into month of nov
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The long-range 06Z GEFS is quite enthusiastic:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
his Puerto Rico and the NE Islands on the 0Z run
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- EquusStorm
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.
Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.
Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
EquusStorm wrote:Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.
Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.
a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4
west to east tracks occur about once a decade
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- EquusStorm
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Alyono wrote:EquusStorm wrote:Obviously still too early to sound the alarm bells, but I'm hooked on each new run. Remembering Lenny there is of course precedent for such a track, but I'm waiting on more model runs before really getting into it. I really don't want to see any more Caribbean destruction this year, but as Lenny occurred all the way back on my 9th birthday, it would be interesting to see what a west-east track in the Caribbean would look like with today's technology.
Hopefully, it won't look like a destructive and deadly Caribbean hit... again.
a west to east track is NOT that uncommon late in the year. Happened with Klaus in 1984, Lenny in 1999, and Omar in 2008 (Omar was a miracle as it tracked between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin providing little impact to both locations despite being a cat 4
west to east tracks occur about once a decade
True. I do remember Omar well, that track should've been catastrophic but came out far better than expected. Paloma the next month also moved northeast if I recall (but in the WCarib where that's very common) but Lenny still intrigues me the most with less northward component than the others, though. Not that it's a super special track, just really interesting.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This looks like a Paloma (2008) track up to Cuba (not the rest of it though)
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- wxman57
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Weaker, later, weaker, later - a sign of a bogus development prediction. Still an area to keep an eye on late season, but development chances are low.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
This is Casey Kasem with American (Model) top 40 (Forecast Busts), counting down yet another familiar old fashioned love song. Whether you simply love, or love to hate its over-reaching tropical beat, the GFS is back with yet another "384hour-acane"
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017110600&fh=384
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017110600&fh=384
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Just one more reason some of us Floridians cant help but enjoy the GFS 384 hr. forecast..... Some like it Cold, while others a bit more "Tropical Bold". In terms of wish-casts though, the GFS seldom fails to deliver
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS going cat 5 into bangladesh. Seeing more signs in the models that there will be a significant cyclone in the Bay of Bengal
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
EC seems lost, as is almost always the case with monsoon trough genesis
UKMET also showing a significant cyclone
UKMET also showing a significant cyclone
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