WPAC: HAIKUI - Dissipated

[mrbagyo]

Finally.

99W INVEST 171108 0000 10.7N 130.8E WPAC 15 NA

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY
580 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BELOW AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A
071756Z 85GHZ SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SINGLE BAND OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLC, BUT WITHOUT CLEARLY-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL INFLOW TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION. 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH SHEAR
VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
GENERALLY EASTERLY WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY AND STORM MOTION OF 99W,
WITH GFS THE MOST AGRESSIVE AND PREDICTING 99W REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES ON 9 NOVEMBER.
OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK OR NO DEVELOPMENT AFTER 99W MAKES ITS
PHILIPPINE CROSSING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[doomhaMwx]

99W INVEST 171108 1200 11.3N 126.8E WPAC 20 1007




Vietnam and/or Hainan island may get affected after 99W crosses the Philippines, but what sort of impacts are still uncertain at this time...

[ManilaTC]

Looks like an upgrade will be in order in a bit.

99W INVEST 171109 0000 12.8N 124.4E WPAC 25 1002

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

30W THIRTY
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 08, 2017

[euro6208]

TCFA from earlier.

WTPN21 PGTW 081930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 126.0E TO 14.8N 117.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 125.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 130.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.6E, 313 NM ESE OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION COVERING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 080910Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
DISTURBANCE, AND LOOSE ORGANIZATION AROUND A BROAD CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 081307Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION INDICATED CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING, WITH WINDS 5-10
KNOTS IN THE SE QUADRANT AND AN ISOLATED REGION OF 20 KT WINDS IN
THE NE QUADRANT, THOUGH SOME WIND BARBS ARE FLAGGED FOR
CONTAMINATION. A RADAR MOSAIC FROM PAGASA SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CLEAR ROTATION, AND FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING AROUND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CENTER CLEAR OF CONVECTION. 99W IS
CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH SHEAR VALUES INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH.
WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, TOWARDS WHICH 99W IS PROPAGATING,
IS ALSO LOW. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS IMPROVED. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE PHILIPPINES MAY INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY AND STORM MOTION OF
99W, WITH GFS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC AND PREDICTING 99W REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES IN
APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS. OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK DEVELOPMENT IN LATER
TAUS, OR DO NOT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION AT ALL, AFTER 99W TRACKS
OVER THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091930Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081921NOV2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.8N 124.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 124.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.8N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.7N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 17.3N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.8N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.9N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 123.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 081930).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 226 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH IS BASED ON A 082305Z 89GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWING A LOW
REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE WITH A BURST OF STRONG CENTRAL
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS AND IS
BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO 2.0 (25 TO 30
KNOTS). A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CATARMAN, PHILIPPINES IS
REPORTING A STATION PRESSURE OF 1002 MB WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ROBUST AS IT TAPS INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY
JET, WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL DIFFLUENCE.
CURRENTLY TD 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO
THE NORTH
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE STR. OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS TD 30W WILL TRACK OVER THE PHILIPPINES. DESPITE
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
ARCHIPELAGO WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION, AND TD 30W
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THIS TIME.
BETWEEN TAU 18 AND 24 THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
VERY FAVORABLE AND TD 30W WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS AROUND TAU
48. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY COMPACT WITH THE 34-
KNOT WIND RADII REMAINING CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM CENTER.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TD 30W WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOWER
SSTS, THIS COMBINED WITH DETERIORATING UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING JUST BEFORE TAU 72. AROUND TAU
96 THE STEERING RIDGE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO CAUSE A
TRACK SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST STEERING TD 30W OVER HAINAN AND
CLOSER TO THE WESTERLY JET. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASED WIND
SHEAR WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE. HOWEVER THERE ARE SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THAT ORIGINATE FROM THE INITIAL 12 HOURS
AND IN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK WHILE OVER THE PHILIPPINES. BY
TAU 96 AND 120 MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT POSITION
AND TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me or this depression looks more like a TS already? That banding feature to its north looks impressive. Interesting that it's got that look while crossing the Samar-Bicol region. Though I would like to see the field reports in Bicol to be more confident, no word yet regarding the situation there.

[mrbagyo]

Are PAGASA radars not functioning again or it's just data transmission issue?

Is it just me or this depression looks more like a TS already? That banding feature to its north looks impressive. Interesting that it's got that look while crossing the Samar-Bicol region. Though I would like to see the field reports in Bicol to be more confident, no word yet regarding the situation there.

Legazpi
AAXX 09071 98444 41465 81802 10259 20243 30031 40049 5//// 76062 84277 333 56999 84818 87459 88270
2 Knot wind
1004.9 mb SLP

Masbate.
METAR RPVM 090700Z 13003KT 100V160 9999 FEW020 BKN100 30/24 Q1006 NOSIG RMK A2971
3 knots / 29.71 inHg

FOR MORE WEATHER OBS - Weatherph.org's WEATHER STATION NETWORK

[doomhaMwx]

Next name's "Haikui"...

[doomhaMwx]

Are PAGASA radars not functioning again or it's just data transmission issue?

Is it just me or this depression looks more like a TS already? That banding feature to its north looks impressive. Interesting that it's got that look while crossing the Samar-Bicol region. Though I would like to see the field reports in Bicol to be more confident, no word yet regarding the situation there.

Legazpi
AAXX 09071 98444 41465 81802 10259 20243 30031 40049 5//// 76062 84277 333 56999 84818 87459 88270
2 Knot wind
1004.9 mb SLP

Masbate.
METAR RPVM 090700Z 13003KT 100V160 9999 FEW020 BKN100 30/24 Q1006 NOSIG RMK A2971
3 knots / 29.71 inHg

FOR MORE WEATHER OBS - Weatherph.org's WEATHER STATION NETWORK

That same station (98444) in Legaspi recorded a SLP of 997.6 mb and wind speed of 25kph @ 03Z(11am PhT) today...

[doomhaMwx]

30W THIRTY 171109 0600 13.2N 122.6E WPAC 30 1000

[Sciencerocks]

Is it just me or this depression looks more like a TS already? That banding feature to its north looks impressive. Interesting that it's got that look while crossing the Samar-Bicol region. Though I would like to see the field reports in Bicol to be more confident, no word yet regarding the situation there.

I agree 100%. Looks to be around 40 knots based on the banding features.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[mrbagyo]

Here are some data near the "core" as of 8:00 PM local time.

[euro6208]

That is at least a moderate strength TS already. Quite compact. Dvorak keeping this from getting upgraded as it is stuck at 2.0 and . Any ASCAT?

[NewbieAboutcyclones]

Tropical Depression #30W (#SalomePH) has intensified into Tropical Storm #HAIKUI (T1724) in the vicinity of #Batangas...

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO has some very limited intensification over the SCS. 993mb and 994mb as it starts to dissipates.

[doomhaMwx]

TS "Haikui"...
Centered over Batangas province in Southern Luzon, and will emerge into the South China Sea shortly...

TS 1724 (Haikui)
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 9 November 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 9 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°50' (13.8°)
E121°20' (121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30' (14.5°)
E119°05' (119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E117°00' (117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 992 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20' (16.3°)
E114°20' (114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E112°30' (112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 30 m/s (55 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40 m/s (80 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM