Texas Fall 2017

[Ntxw]

It is finally chilly again. No more 90s for awhile I hope. I think 60 will be a stretch today so well below normal since highs are about 70. Front is making its way toward central TX and will get a stronger push this afternoon.

Temps will fall to the 40s this evening and likely won't move much tomorrow. Rain forms late morning and continues throughout the day solid 0.50" or more for the I-20 corridor, some snow in the panhandle

[TexasStorm]

What I got from the recent posts:

1. May not get to 60 degrees today
2. Rain tomorrow - around an inch, more further south
3. Cold and wet tomorrow
4. Snow in the panhandle
5. Ntxw is making gumbo for everyone

[Tireman4]

What I got from the recent posts:

1. May not get to 60 degrees today
2. Rain tomorrow - around an inch, more further south
3. Cold and wet tomorrow
4. Snow in the panhandle
5. Ntxw is making gumbo for everyone

Meanwhile, we are looking at another record breaker for temperatures in the holler today. 88, set back in 1969, maybe in trouble. The front is still s..l..o...w...l...y....working its way to us.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hopefully this very thick cloud deck prevents another record breaking day.

Some amateur analysis here: I was looking at the CHI anomaly. Measures upper air convergence and divergence in the atmosphere. Feel free to correct me if i'm wrong experts, (im sure im off.) It seems in a normal state of la nina, there is an area of upper level convergence (high pressure) in mexico which has been keeping us warm. In the maritime continent, where the focus on warm water, there is upper air convergence (low pressure.) It seems for this pattern to REALLY change, and help us out this winter, we need help from the MJO. Last week, there was an MJO event which helped usher down much colder air. Hopefully i'm on the right track here.

With MJO helped, timed with some Polar blocking, maybe we can get funky in the southern US.

[Ntxw]

La La.Land GFS has a major trough middle Thanksgiving week. It varies run to run but perhap sneak peak early?

[Yukon Cornelius]

What an awesome day after a weekend in the 90s. Currently 51 with a wind chill of 45. An 80% chance of rain forecasted for tomorrow with a high of 45.

[Ntxw]

What a glorious day, 50s and northerly breeze under cloud deck. Stroll watching the birds and leaves changing. These days make surviving summer worth it.

[Brent]

only took 2 months but it finally resembles fall out

[gboudx]

What a glorious day, 50s and northerly breeze under cloud deck. Stroll watching the birds and leaves changing. These days make surviving summer worth it.

Yeah it's nice. I did a 3 mile run and it was nice seeing the fall color and hearing the crackle of leaves under my feet. Or maybe that was my knees, ankles and hips. Anyway, it's nice.

[Tireman4]

What a glorious day, 50s and northerly breeze under cloud deck. Stroll watching the birds and leaves changing. These days make surviving summer worth it.

Yeah yeah yeah..gloat why dont you...sigh...that front is slower than molasses...

2:28 PM CST on November 7, 2017 (GMT -0600) | Updated a few seconds ago

86° | 60°
89 F
FEELS LIKE 92°

Mostly Cloudy
N2
Wind ESE
Today is forecast to be COOLER than yesterday.

Ha..see the last remarks...it has jokes....It is warmer than yesterday....oh wait...wait..we broke the record..of 88 set in 1969...kill me now..

[Ntxw]

Some snow cover tabular numbers to date relative to previous years, week 44. Numbers are in Million Sq km per Rutgers snow-lab site. N America does not include Greenland

Week 44 (most current includes beginning of November)

2017
NHEM- 31.74
Eurasia- 17.06
N America- 12.53

2016
NHEM- 31.48
Eurasia- 20.47
N America- 8.86

2015
NHEM- 29.67
Eurasia- 19.08
N America- 8.44

2014
NHEM- 29.00
Eurasia- 17.75
N America- 9.10

2013
NHEM- 26.32
Eurasia- 14.80
N America- 9.36

2012
NHEM- 30.83
Eurasia- 18.52
N America- 10.16

2011
NHEM- 29.85
Eurasia- 17.52
N America- 10.18

2010
NHEM- 25.05
Eurasia- 13.78
N America- 9.12

2009
NHEM- 29.66
Eurasia- 18.26
N America- 9.25

Keep going back and on the records since 1966 week 44 has one year higher in 1991. Notice here Asia is just having a so-so snow growth year. North America is holding up the strong NHEM pace.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting to be sketch of the SAI. Perhaps its more influential if the snowpack started earlier in Canada like we are seeing. Maybe it creates the core of the cold building up which can lead to lower heights in the region. Essentially what we expect in Siberia but in Canada, at a much closer proximity.

Based on the data posted by Ntx above, there isnt a great correlation behind this thought, but it couldnt hurt. So many different dynamics involved of course.

Thanks for the post Ntx!

[Ntxw]

Starting to be sketch of the SAI. Perhaps its more influential if the snowpack started earlier in Canada like we are seeing. Maybe it creates the core of the cold building up which can lead to lower heights in the region. Essentially what we expect in Siberia but in Canada, at a much closer proximity.

Based on the data posted by Ntx above, there isnt a great correlation behind this thought, but it couldnt hurt. So many different dynamics involved of course.

Thanks for the post Ntx!

The SAI (if I read correctly) is determined by Eurasian October snowfall. It hasn't predicted the AO well the past 2-3 years. That's why this year is a negative anomaly. It doesn't correlate with N Am snow cover. The extent however does show cold has tended to build and move over North America rather than N Asia the past 30-40 days. CFSv2 has been moving goal posts from wall to wall warmth to cold centered over N America during DJF. Related? Perhaps it is seeing something.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Starting to be sketch of the SAI. Perhaps its more influential if the snowpack started earlier in Canada like we are seeing. Maybe it creates the core of the cold building up which can lead to lower heights in the region. Essentially what we expect in Siberia but in Canada, at a much closer proximity.

Based on the data posted by Ntx above, there isnt a great correlation behind this thought, but it couldnt hurt. So many different dynamics involved of course.

Thanks for the post Ntx!

The SAI (if I read correctly) is determined by Eurasian October snowfall. It hasn't predicted the AO well the past 2-3 years. That's why this year is a negative anomaly. It doesn't correlate with N Am snow cover. The extent however does show cold has tended to build and move over North America rather than N Asia the past 30-40 days. CFSv2 has been moving goal posts from wall to wall warmth to cold centered over N America during DJF. Related? Perhaps it is seeing something.

I see. Well with a big snow pack there, i dont see how it could hurt, just concerned about the correlation. If we can hold the snow pack in NA i think thats a positive for us. Should keep heights down.

So many things to analyze and ponder. The arctic will have a colder than normal winter i think, we just need to find a way to tap into it and lock it in. Those are the most important dynamics.


Also, look at the lack of sea ice north of Scandanavia/Russia. Wow. That could certainly impact heights near the poles.

[katheria]

La La.Land GFS has a major trough middle Thanksgiving week. It varies run to run but perhap sneak peak early?

May this will come true..we can dream....

24th-27th.
Fair followed by a significant snow for the high terrain of New Mexico, northern Texas/Oklahoma.
28th-30th.
Snow continues to fall and accumulate.

[gpsnowman]

Nice fall day today. Wind has picked up a bit adding a little wind chill this evening. Tomorrow we finally see some all day rain!! Can't wait for the chill and rain. And according to NBC 5, pleasant fall weather sticks around with no 80's or 90's in the forecast. Thank goodness and good riddance. Hope everyone enjoys the early taste of winter tomorrow!

[gatorcane]

Long-range 18Z GFS torches Texas. That Thanksgiving week trough is nowhere to be seen this run. Good news for cold weather enthusiasts is that it may bring it back in subsequent runs since it is all long-range.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty good agreement across the models on .75-1.5" rain across the DFW area. Not a total washout but some much need and widespread rain. Hopefully, we can pull a setup like this in late December or Jan/Feb. This setup would favor a winter weather event with colder air.

[Brent]

yeah, I'm pulling for this setup around Christmas...

In less interesting news, the 0z GFS has near record highs(mid 80s) end of next week

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This little overrunning action would be great a month from now. Had no idea it would even be this cold out there. Interesting setup for La Nina.