2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
We could see yet another non-tropical low form in the central subtropical Atlantic next week that will need to be watched for possible TC/STC genesis.
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NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
re Alyono Bangladesh cyclone.
Ukmet also has shown intense cyclones in the bob over past seasons that don't verify.
Wait and see i guess but its EC for me.
Ukmet also has shown intense cyclones in the bob over past seasons that don't verify.
Wait and see i guess but its EC for me.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CyclonicFury wrote:We could see yet another non-tropical low form in the central subtropical Atlantic next week that will need to be watched for possible TC/STC genesis.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_27.png
Tis' the season of subtropical slop
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- Vince_and_Grace_fan
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
A weak subtropical storm still looks possible on the next week south of the Azores (maybe similar to the unnamed storm in 2013 which also formed in that area).
GFS:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567104-1/gfs ... ics_21.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567101-1/gfs ... ics_21.png
GEM:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567098-1/gem ... ics_18.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567095-1/gem ... ics_18.png
NAVGEM:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567107-1/nav ... ics_17.png
GFS:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567104-1/gfs ... ics_21.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567101-1/gfs ... ics_21.png
GEM:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567098-1/gem ... ics_18.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567095-1/gem ... ics_18.png
NAVGEM:
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27567107-1/nav ... ics_17.png
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Maybe this bad season is over at last.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
emeraldislenc wrote:Maybe this bad season is over at last.
Possibly. However, it would be very "2017 like" if we could squeeze in 3 more TC formations and run the list out.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Very strong signal from the GFS and GEFS in the long-range:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
FIM has it as well.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
GFS showing development again (don't know what happened at 00z run).
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Nothing at 12z GFS.
Strong development at 18z. (images)
Strong development at 18z. (images)
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Don't know about 00z run.
06z showing development.
Trending later tough.
06z showing development.
Trending later tough.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Visioen wrote:Don't know about 00z run.
06z showing development.
Trending later tough.
Probably a phantom
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
season is near a end!!!! thank goodness!! I expect 2018 to be pretty active with no EL NINO!!!
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
stormlover2013 wrote:season is near a end!!!! thank goodness!! I expect 2018 to be pretty active with no EL NINO!!!
Way too soon to even begin to speculate on what the 2018 Atlantic season might be like as last year at this time people were starting to say another El Niño would occur this season. Currently we are in yet another La Niña instead.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
6z showing a well defined TS at hour 174 swinging SW, then moving W through the subtropics before weakening
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Upper air really doesn't look Nina like yet.
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- Vince_and_Grace_fan
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The latest GFS and ECM runs are persistently show a possible subtropical or tropical low over the far East Atlantic, which is pretty strong in some runs (like now). The development also seems very rapidly (he estimated peak is around +72 hours now).
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