MED: NUMA - Subtropical Storm over the Mediterranean Sea

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

I never saw similar earlier, but five of the last six GFS runs develop consistently a subtropical cyclone within a few days near Sicily that later can transforme into a tropical storm south of Italy. Some of the runs showed pretty strong TS depend on the land interaction.

http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568769-1/gfs2017111100_mslp_wind_eu_180.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568772-1/gfs2017111112_mslp_wind_eu_198.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568775-1/gfs2017111118_mslp_wind_eu_168.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568778-1/gfs2017111200_mslp_wind_eu_144.png

The last two ECMWF run show the development too.

http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568763-1/ecmwf2017111112_z500_mslp_eu_144.png
http://gallery.site.hu/d/27568766-1/ecmwf2017111200_z500_mslp_eu_144.png

This is the current GFS run, which shows a strong TS again.

[doomhaMwx]

Whoa! Definitely gonna be interesting to follow.

[WAcyclone]

This system is indeed looking very interesting. ECMWF (left) and GFS (right) are in excellent agreement that there will be a (sub-)tropical storm south of Sicily on Wednesday:


Source: weather.us

And both indicate that the system will have a warm core:


Source: weather.us

The simulated IR forecasts are also quite interesting with both models showing an eye-like feature.
ECMWF:


Source: weather.us

GFS:


Source: tropicaltidbits.com

[terstorm1012]

this is about the right time of year for that development. will be worth watching!

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The latest model runs are trending toward a weaker cyclone, but the model support is higher than yesterday as GEM and ICON also develop the low at least to a subtropical cyclone.
Here is the latest ICON run (it shows weakening after the cyclone moves avay from Italy).

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The meteocenter-WRF now develops the cyclone at first time and immediately shows a strong TS with central pressure around 985 hPa and winds around 55 knots.
The 00Z GFS and ICON were stronger too, but the 06Z runs keep the cyclone weaker again as most of the yesterday's runs.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The Arpege model also found the cyclone - as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 kt sustained winds and 95-100 kt gusts.

[Alyono]

image did not load

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

image did not load

Thanks, I used wrong URL but I didn't notice that (the image was even so available to me). I changed it, so now it has to be good.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/thema_des_ ... 11/15.html
Deep NUMA

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 38.94,1667


https://weather.us/satellite/sicily/top ... .html#play



https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/88 ... re-weather
Media story

https://twitter.com/hashtag/medicane?src=hash&lang=en

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

It is organising quickly.

[Alyono]

ASCAT showed the strongest winds are a bit too far form the center to be a TC yet. However, if the convection persists for about 12 more hours, I expect this will make the transition

[DanieleItalyRm]

https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/ita ... .html#play

http://neige.meteociel.fr/satellite/anim_vis_it.gif

[DanieleItalyRm]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

Here is a full daytime animation from the cyclone.

[Sciencerocks]

Convection is starting to pop near the center so it is probably transition into a tropical cyclone.

Probably 35-40 knots.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Intensifies whilst doing a loop on the model.



A few anvils are shooting off.

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

The latest ASCAT pass missed the center but it measured 30 knots winds east of it.
S. Maria Di Leuca (norh of the center) also reported 10-min sustained winds near 30 knots in the last hours with 40-45 knots gusts, so it probably a weak storm now with 35-40 knots winds. http://ogimet.com/display_metars2.php?lang=en&lugar=liby&tipo=ALL&ord=REV&nil=SI&fmt=html&ano=2017&mes=11&day=17&hora=00&anof=2017&mesf=11&dayf=17&horaf=23&minf=59&send=send

The convection is starting to wrap around the center again as last night, and it seems that the southward turn is also has begun. However it is still unclear in what direction will the cyclone move because the predicted landfall location speard from the albanian-greek border to South Greece.

[DanieleItalyRm]

[DanieleItalyRm]