WPAC: KIROGI - Dissipated

[euro6208]

Upgraded to a TS.

WDPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES AND A 171450Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS BASED ON THE UPPER END
OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30-35 KNOTS),
AND A 171234Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 31W
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A STRONG RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCING
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN PHASE
WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AROUND 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY, TS 31W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-
WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 31W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL TO
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF TS 31W IS FORECAST TO
REACH 50 KNOTS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM BY TAU 36.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER DUE
TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ26 KNES 172108
TCSWNP

A. 31W (NONAME)

B. 17/2030Z

C. 11.6N

D. 115.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SIX-TENTHS BANDING
FEATURE. THIS YIELDS A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.5 BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO

[euro6208]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

What is that?

The image was not showing up. I was hoping Ryan would chime in back at that point.

[euro6208]

31W KIROGI 171118 0000 11.7N 115.0E WPAC 40 993

Up to 40 knots. Given the name Kirogi by JMA.

[doomhaMwx]

TS 1725 (Kirogi)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 18 November 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 18 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°55' (10.9°)
E115°00' (115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 18 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°25' (11.4°)
E112°40' (112.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 19 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°10' (11.2°)
E110°10' (110.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 20 November>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N10°50' (10.8°)
E104°05' (104.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH DEEP FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND A 172001Z
89GHZ AMSU-B IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
WHICH IS BASED ON MULTI- AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0
TO T3.0 (30-45 KNOTS) AND A 172002Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 31W SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A STRONG
RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AROUND 29 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TS 31W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 31W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL TO
FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WITH MODERATE WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF TS 31W IS FORECAST TO REACH 50
KNOTS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WATER DUE
TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 31W (KIROGI) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AN
180154Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER. A RECENT
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE AND AN OSCAT BULLS-EYE IMAGE SHOW 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS,
WHICH IS ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. TS 31W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 31W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 18. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY
TAU 12 BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 NOV 2017 Time : 104000 UTC
Lat : 11:45:18 N Lon : 112:27:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1006.6mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 2.8

Center Temp : -65.7C Cloud Region Temp : -51.4C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.7 degrees

****************************************************

[NotoSans]

Downgraded to TD by JMA.

[doomhaMwx]

JMA downgraded it into a Tropical Depression @ 18Z, while JTWC is still carrying it as a low-end Tropical Storm at the moment (JTWC's estimate looks more appropriate to me... but it is possible that the system may have weakened into a TD earlier, but back to TS strength now).

[doomhaMwx]

Kirogi is weak wind-wise, but the combined effects of the storm and the seasonal NE winds/monsoon will bring another round of heavy/copious rainfall threat to Central Vietnam, quite similar to what happened during Typhoon Damrey.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 31W (KIROGI) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 31W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 11.5N 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 11.8N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 11.7N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 108.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 31W (KIROGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 31W MADE
LANDFALL AT 19/06Z APPROXIMATELY 30NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAM RANH
BAY (VVCR), WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20
KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 1006MB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-WEAKENING, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM KNES.
TD 31W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Kirogi has made landfall over the South Central Coast region of Vietnam this Sunday afternoon(Vietnam time) according to the JTWC.

[doomhaMwx]

Models indicate that the remnants will emerge into the Gulf of Thailand tomorrow(Monday) and then hit/cross the Malay Peninsula, but without any regeneration/redevelopment into a Tropical Cyclone even in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal.

[doomhaMwx]

Models indicate that the remnants will emerge into the Gulf of Thailand tomorrow(Monday) and then hit/cross the Malay Peninsula, but without any regeneration/redevelopment into a Tropical Cyclone even in the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal.

[doomhaMwx]

Area of convection over the Gulf of Thailand is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Kirogi. Redevelopment
into a Tropical Cyclone is not expected. The remnants are expected to cross the Malay Peninsula on the next 24hrs or so,
then completely dissipate over the Andaman Sea or Bay of Bengal.

[1900hurricane]

A bit less impactful than the last system to occupy the 31W designation.