Texas Winter 2017-2018
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The 12z Euro EPS only has one member that comes to close to freezing on one day at DFW... 11 Months without a freeze looks pretty much locked in now.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
bubba hotep wrote:The 12z Euro EPS only has one member that comes to close to freezing on one day at DFW... 11 Months without a freeze looks pretty much locked in now.
Accuweather's forecast(I know I know but there's literally no other weather) doesn't have a freeze at DFW for another month... 2 days before Christmas and even then its barely.
Looking at January(again I know I know) some icy days to rain but nothing extreme on temps
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
For the 2nd run in a row, the Euro Weeklies are showing a flip to colder and wetter (normal to slightly above normal) come mid-Dec.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
GFS looks interesting in fantasy land(when isn't it fantasy land)
close calls 288-300 hours and at 372 hours a brief mix appears at the end of precip around Dallas
Bigger story is rain events!!! Too bad even that's not til day 11-12
close calls 288-300 hours and at 372 hours a brief mix appears at the end of precip around Dallas
Bigger story is rain events!!! Too bad even that's not til day 11-12
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The Euro & EPS continue to keep rain out beyond D10. I can't put any faith in that until they start to move the pattern change up in time.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
12z GFS has a wet start to Dec with over 2" of rain at DFW during the first part of the month.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
0z GFS has a cold core low beyond 300 hours that has snow from West Texas to DFW
Even snows in Mexico
Also a good rain event ahead of that but this is all fantasy land
Rick Mitchell did hint at a possible pattern change beyond the first week of December on the 10pm news
Even snows in Mexico
Also a good rain event ahead of that but this is all fantasy land
Rick Mitchell did hint at a possible pattern change beyond the first week of December on the 10pm news
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- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Models continue to come into agreement that things will turn active as we move into December. It also looks like the we should finally see some cold by mid month.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- wxman57
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Boy, this thread is dead. 12Z GFS has snow across Texas the weekend after next! Hey, I'm trying to get you guys some snow this winter, after I enjoyed last "winter" so much. It's not my fault that the atmosphere isn't cooperating.
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
South Texas Storms wrote:12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.
What the 12Z GFS giveth, the 18Z GFS taketh away...
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
wxman57 wrote:South Texas Storms wrote:12z model guidance continues to indicate that we could see widespread rain across much of Texas and possibly a threat of frozen precip in northern parts of the state around the second weekend of December.
What the 12Z GFS giveth, the 18Z GFS taketh away...
Heat miser!! I should have known!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
not much rain on the 0z but cold in fantasy land(no frozen precip)
Maybe someday it'll be in forecasting range
Worried about a dry NW flow when the pattern does change though with the cold more east based, where is the SE ridge?
0z Euro finally shows a storm system moving in at day 10 the end of the run with colder air in the Panhandle
Maybe someday it'll be in forecasting range
Worried about a dry NW flow when the pattern does change though with the cold more east based, where is the SE ridge?
0z Euro finally shows a storm system moving in at day 10 the end of the run with colder air in the Panhandle
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Pattern looks promising week 2 and 3 (through mid Dec). Maybe a couple of near miss storms to follow. The pattern looks blocky which spells winter storms potential.
Who wouldn't take Christmas Eve 2009 analogs? Long, Long way out though and let us hope it sticks. Should be interesting per GEFS and EPS.
Who wouldn't take Christmas Eve 2009 analogs? Long, Long way out though and let us hope it sticks. Should be interesting per GEFS and EPS.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
2009 would be terrific. With this November about to close out very warm, we just gotta be patient. Winter will get here at some point with at least some below normal temps and possibly........wait for it........a freeze!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
2nd week in Dec seems cold and maybe moisture...#FINGERSCROSSED N. TEXAS
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Yep ... all of the longer-range forecasters who I follow online are increasingly bullish about a major pattern change in the 10-15 day period. If they're right -- and as Ntxw showed above -- we will see much colder, stormier conditions for the central and eastern CONUS. Just in time for Christmas!
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
So who tracks the polar vortex for us? I keep seeing chatter about it on the interwebz but I've never put much effort into reading up on it.
It looks like DFW might see it's first freeze of the season b/w the 7-9th as the ensembles are driving some Canadian air deep into the Central US. Then after that, eyes turn back towards the Pacific. Will we see the Pacific jet reload and flood the US with another batch of warm Pacific air or will we see it calm down allowing for a prolonged period of more seasonal weather? The Euro Weeklies have been showing a prolonged stretch of seasonable weather stretching all the way into January, after the upcoming pattern flip.
We missed out on really cold air the with the 1st go round of blocking but this time looks better for us:
It looks like DFW might see it's first freeze of the season b/w the 7-9th as the ensembles are driving some Canadian air deep into the Central US. Then after that, eyes turn back towards the Pacific. Will we see the Pacific jet reload and flood the US with another batch of warm Pacific air or will we see it calm down allowing for a prolonged period of more seasonal weather? The Euro Weeklies have been showing a prolonged stretch of seasonable weather stretching all the way into January, after the upcoming pattern flip.
We missed out on really cold air the with the 1st go round of blocking but this time looks better for us:
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
The 12z GFS and CMC both have a more active pattern by early next week(finally inside 10 days!), the CMC even brings in rain next weekend and the LR GFS remains cold and unsettled behind that initial storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018
Coastal counties need rain bad. Burn ban is in effect in some parts. Less than half an inch since Harvey at our place in Matagorda county.
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