NIO: OCKHI - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

91B INVEST 171127 0600 6.0N 85.2E IO 15 1010

[doomhaMwx]

91B INVEST 171128 0600 6.1N 82.9E IO 20 1006

Recent satellite images and an ASCAT pass indicates that this system has become better organized in the last 24hrs.




Gradual additional organization and strengthening is possible after it passes over Sri Lanka on the next 24-48hrs, once it is back over waters. The system may also move into the Arabian Sea later this week.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

May run into ideal conditions in the arabian sea. And the wpac may also fire up latter next week.

[doomhaMwx]

91B is now analyzed to be a (Tropical)Depression by the JTWC and IMD. The system is the subject of a TCFA by the JTWC.

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 83.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 81.7E, APPROXIMATELY 121 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. A 290043Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CURVED, DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER BOTH THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTURBANCE, AND A 281614Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE, AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH LAND, AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[doomhaMwx]

Today's 00Z GFS and ECMWF runs have it approaching and passing through India's Lakshadweep islands in the Arabian Sea as a Typhoon/Hurricane-strength system on the next couple of days.

[Alyono]

ASCAT shows a veryy large area of TS winds, so IMD upgrades to deep depression...

[1900hurricane]

JTWC is now classifying it as Tropical Storm 03B, making it their first NIO system since Mora in May.

[doomhaMwx]

Tropical Storm 03B by JTWC for quite some time now.

[doomhaMwx]

@ 03Z today(8:30am IST), a station located near the southern tip of India recorded a wind speed of 41kph, and a SLP near 1001mb.

[doomhaMwx]

Finally named "Ockhi" by the IMD...

Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the deep depression over Comorin area
moved west-northwestwards with a speed of 38 kmph during past 06 hours and intensified into a
cyclonic storm ‘OCKHI’ and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 30th November, 2017 over
Comorin area and neighbourhood near Latitude 7.5º N and Longitude 77.5º E, about 340 km westnorthwest
of Galle (Sri Lanka), 60 km south of Kanyakumari, 120 km southwest of
Thiruvananthapuram and 480 km east-southeast of Minicoy. The system is very likely to move westnorthwestwards
towards Lakshadweep Islands and intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm
during next 24 hours.

[doomhaMwx]

Radar image of Ockhi, clearly showing the storm's center...

[mrbagyo]

Latest microwave

[mrbagyo]

appears to be on RI phase

[Alyono]

a well formed eye is present, so IMD has it at 35 kts...

[Yellow Evan]

Also dead wrong

TPXS11 PGTW 301456

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (DAHLIA)

B. 30/1430Z

C. 9.48S

D. 107.61E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .65 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1118Z 9.22S 107.42E SSMS
30/1132Z 9.30S 107.45E SSMS


LEMBKE

[euro6208]

03B OCKHI 171201 0000 8.7N 74.2E IO 60 988

[mrbagyo]

can SSD source their images for this area from INSAT instead of Himawari8

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC has just upgraded it into a Category 1 Cyclone @ 06Z today. Eye/center is now near/over India's Lakshadweep islands.

03B OCKHI 171201 0600 8.8N 73.5E IO 70 970

[wxman57]

Remember, the JTWC is not the official RSMC for any basin. The IMD is the RSMC. They are still classifying Ockhi as a tropical storm (severe tropical cyclone). I'm not saying they're correct, but they're the official source. I think winds are in the 70-80 kt range now.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the system may have hit a snag with some dry air. There haven't been any good microwave passes recently, but even the impressive AMSR2 pass from a little while ago showed a wedge of higher brightness air (dry air) closing in on the system from the west. I feel like chances are good that we have already observed peak intensity.