Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

It appears a lot of the forecasts that were calling for cold air have moved more toward seasonal temps.

[Brent]

It appears a lot of the forecasts that were calling for cold air have moved more toward seasonal temps.

GFS dropped the snow on the 18z and yeah, nothing impressive on cold. Rain isn't that great either

A freeze in Florida but DFW doesn't even make the 30s

[starsfan65]

It appears a lot of the forecasts that were calling for cold air have moved more toward seasonal temps.

it will change

[Snowman67]

It appears a lot of the forecasts that were calling for cold air have moved more toward seasonal temps.

Wash, rinse and repeat

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think the Euro is too far east with the ridge in the NW territories. We will see.

Any particularly reason why you think this or just a wild guess ?

Mostly wild guess, but also looking at the strength and position of the trough pumping it.

[Ralph's Weather]

It appears a lot of the forecasts that were calling for cold air have moved more toward seasonal temps.

GFS dropped the snow on the 18z and yeah, nothing impressive on cold. Rain isn't that great either

A freeze in Florida but DFW doesn't even make the 30s

With the pattern on the 18Z GFS I would still expect a freeze for E TX, likely low to mid 20s in the favored spots. Hopefully the SW trough pans out so we can get our decent rains we should know more on that this weekend. Our best cold is still going to be once the pattern retrogrades west next weekend and the following week especially. Still no above normal byond Monday for a long while.

[Brent]

well the 336 hour winter storm is still there, plenty of time for it to disappear lol

Channel 8 has temps closing in on 70 next weekend

[TheProfessor]

November will probably fall below normal here in Ohio(totally different from Texas) We had a few above normal days but we had so many days where the high was around 45-48 degrees when the average high is around 52-54 this time of year. Foliage got off to a quick start then stalled from September to just before Halloween and then really ramped up in November(way more than the past 2 years.) Looks like we could get some real cold in the coming weeks and the GFS has a clipper train occurring(which was seriously missing last winter) as well.

[Ntxw]

You mean the same models calling for lots of rain a few days ago? Yeah they have a clue

The cynicism is becoming unreal around here with each model run for something that hasn't even happened yet

[davidiowx]

You mean the same models calling for lots of rain a few days ago? Yeah they have a clue

The cynicism is becoming unreal around here with each model run for something that hasn't even happened yet

For real! People will drive themselves mad if they look at every model run and believe it lol. Let it play out. As we all know in this part of the world, models tend to under estimate cold. Just because the forecast for day 6 changes, it doesn’t mean it won’t go right back to where it was (or even lower) by Saturday/Sunday into early next week!

Give it time people. Watch the patterns, not a single run or two for that matter. Plus Winter is just starting. We got a long way to go

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Seriously, im loving this pattern. We had this one time last year, maybe twice. Been since Jan for true cold weather, im pumped. Getting the PWS all cleaned up for it.

It's working again since it got performance anxiety the day harvey hit. Smh

[Texas Snowman]

You mean the same models calling for lots of rain a few days ago? Yeah they have a clue

The cynicism is becoming unreal around here with each model run for something that hasn't even happened yet

Yup, I've been thinking the same thing. If only I had a dollar for every mood swing here as each day's model runs occur.

[Brent]

I think a lot of my cynicism or whatever it is comes from the fact of how boring the weather has been lately... and how prevalent the warmth has been. Nothing has happened in months that has been good. I want a pattern change too but its just like, I'll believe it when I see it sometimes.

I still have nightmares of last winter too which was over in early January

[Ntxw]

I think it's a fair call to be skeptical and believe it when see it mentality. In fact it's advised . But at least we're seeing something, even if it's cooler NW flow, it beats being hot all the time, it gets old. it can get to 90 in December... Least we got a shot at a good pattern. Lets wait and see how it plays out, or at least until Sunday or Monday if the models look so so by then, it would be a good call to back off on it some.

In other news,

All winter discussions is pretty much officially now in this thread for DJF! Technically midnight but might as well call it now! Let the meteorological winter season start!! Fall thread is closed for discussion.

[bubba hotep]

Euro Weeklies are pretty unimpressive...

[Brent]

I don't think it helped some posts in here a few days ago were hyping some big pattern that has produced big time cold before... I mean at best here we're probably gonna get something typical in early December... which I agree, it's about time given the warmth lately but still, it doesn't offset all this warmth of late...

[starsfan65]

I don't think it helped some posts in here a few days ago were hyping some big pattern that has produced big time cold before... I mean at best here we're probably gonna get something typical in early December... which I agree, it's about time given the warmth lately but still, it doesn't offset all this warmth of late...

No cold weather?

[JDawg512]

Sure we should pay closer attention to the ensembles but look at it this way, at least the thread stays active with each model run.

[starsfan65]

When is the 0z GFS run?

[aggiecutter]