Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Dang, the GFS is just hammering the midwest with repeated shots of frigid air all the way through the end of its run. What’s up with that? None of these want to move due south. All east or southeast. I find that hard to believe.

[Brent]

Dang, the GFS is just hammering the midwest with repeated shots of frigid air all the way through the end of its run. What’s up with that? None of these want to move due south. All east or southeast. I find that hard to believe.

yeah that bugs me

PNA too strong is my guess?

the 0z GFS has no freeze at DFW the entire run, out to a week before Christmas

with all that cold floating around

[Cpv17]

Dang, the GFS is just hammering the midwest with repeated shots of frigid air all the way through the end of its run. What’s up with that? None of these want to move due south. All east or southeast. I find that hard to believe.

yeah that bugs me

PNA too strong is my guess?

the 0z GFS has no freeze at DFW the entire run, out to a week before Christmas

with all that cold floating around

The PNA would be my guess too, but something just seems off. It’s fishy to me.

[Brent]

Dang, the GFS is just hammering the midwest with repeated shots of frigid air all the way through the end of its run. What’s up with that? None of these want to move due south. All east or southeast. I find that hard to believe.

yeah that bugs me

PNA too strong is my guess?

the 0z GFS has no freeze at DFW the entire run, out to a week before Christmas

with all that cold floating around

The PNA would be my guess too, but something just seems off. It’s fishy to me.

Yeah I dunno

the 0z Euro looks like a dumpster fire already

it's warmer than the 12z through Thursday which was already a terrible run

Friday the coldest day, DFW touches the 30s briefly, then 70s next weekend woohoo winter

the end of the run has really no cold air nationwide, in fact the 850 temps are WARMER north of us

[Ralph's Weather]

As we always say don't pay attention to the surface forecast this far out. This pattern will bring cold air, it always does. Most of E TX has been in the 20s multiple times this year with far worse patterns.

As I posted yesterday, I think the GFS had the PNA way too strong. Once it comes to reality the surface should start looking better. I have been wrong before though so maybe I am just biased.

[DonWrk]

Latest GFS run bringing some below 0 temps along with precip for the Dec. 15th timeframe. Let’s go!

[Cerlin]

Mixed bag with the 6z, love the winter storm and the fact that the cold air built up manages to reach down into Texas, bringing us some really cold temps. However, before that, we get kind of torched with quite a few days in the 70s which is definitely not ideal for December. Hopefully that cold air will continue to get down here sooner.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Me personally, I don't think it has really anything to do with cynicism or anything. I think a lot of us don't want to believe the reality that we do live in Texas, where warmth wins 9 out of 10 times, especially lately. Even more the further south you go. The winters we all remember as a kid unfortunately seem to be a thing of the past. With the past 2 winters being really warm, we are all grasping onto anything that shows cold, the hype picks up and we are usually let down. I love cold weather just as much as most of us but with the past 2 winters its hard to believe anything until it happens. Lucy has pulled that football too many times in the past.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight Teleconnection Indices (-EPO /+PNA /-AO Regime) as well as the Long Range Ensembles suggest no significant changes regarding the Pattern Change ahead. The first shot of Canadian Air push in after a Cold Front arrives Tuesday with the Canadian front following Wednesday. The is a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday as the cold front arrives. The fly in the ointment is some over running moisture looks possible as the Canadian Front arrives Wednesday with a chilly rain chance continuing into Thursday.

The Medium and Long Range ensemble guidance continue to advertise a series of Canadian Air dropping South every few days as a piece of the Polar Vortex becomes established near Hudson Bay at the Upper Levels with its Anticyclonic spin tapping into pieces of Upper Level Disturbances dropping South on the East side of a potent Upper Level Ridge building across the NE Pacific into Alaska creating a 'bridge' which will tap into some very cold Siberian Air that appears to plunge across the Artic into Canada and at least the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. Expect each additional Cold front following next week to progressively bring colder shots of Polar/Canadian Air into the Lower 48 through at least the 15th to 17th of December. I will not take a shot at talking about precipitation beyond next week, but needless to say the Analogs of past similar patterns suggest someone across Texas and possibly Louisiana may see precipitation of the wintry type in such an Upper Air Pattern.

[wxman57]

The 11-12 day GFS has an ice storm for SE TX the 13th/14th. Highs in Houston only near 30. See? I told y'all that it would be icy in Texas this winter.

[orangeblood]

The overnight Teleconnection Indices (-EPO /+PNA /-AO Regime) as well as the Long Range Ensembles suggest no significant changes regarding the Pattern Change ahead. The first shot of Canadian Air push in after a Cold Front arrives Tuesday with the Canadian front following Wednesday. The is a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday as the cold front arrives. The fly in the ointment is some over running moisture looks possible as the Canadian Front arrives Wednesday with a chilly rain chance continuing into Thursday.

The Medium and Long Range ensemble guidance continue to advertise a series of Canadian Air dropping South every few days as a piece of the Polar Vortex becomes established near Hudson Bay at the Upper Levels with its Anticyclonic spin tapping into pieces of Upper Level Disturbances dropping South on the East side of a potent Upper Level Ridge building across the NE Pacific into Alaska creating a 'bridge' which will tap into some very cold Siberian Air that appears to plunge across the Artic into Canada and at least the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. Expect each additional Cold front following next week to progressively bring colder shots of Polar/Canadian Air into the Lower 48 through at least the 15th to 17th of December. I will not take a shot at talking about precipitation beyond next week, but needless to say the Analogs of past similar patterns suggest someone across Texas and possibly Louisiana may see precipitation of the wintry type in such an Upper Air Pattern.

Great post....yes, mid month looks very promising and if we want to be greedy with sustained cold, I'd like to see more blocking over Greenland to keep the pattern locked in over North America. If not, these cold blasts might be very transient

[Ralph's Weather]

The above pattern has delivered some very cold air in past seasons (more -EPO than +PNA). I expect the pattern to continue to retrograde even a bit more after mid month as we move back to a -WPO pattern with Aleutian ridging.

[Tireman4]

The 11-12 day GFS has an ice storm for SE TX the 13th/14th. Highs in Houston only near 30. See? I told y'all that it would be icy in Texas this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_46.png

Yeah yeah yeah...and you also say the long range forecasts are so reliable ( sarcasm), but only if it is forecasting 90's...and to top it off, you still have that bi-polar avatar up...who do we believe sir? LOL

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Me personally, I don't think it has really anything to do with cynicism or anything. I think a lot of us don't want to believe the reality that we do live in Texas, where warmth wins 9 out of 10 times, especially lately. Even more the further south you go. The winters we all remember as a kid unfortunately seem to be a thing of the past. With the past 2 winters being really warm, we are all grasping onto anything that shows cold, the hype picks up and we are usually let down. I love cold weather just as much as most of us but with the past 2 winters its hard to believe anything until it happens. Lucy has pulled that football too many times in the past.

It goes the other way too. You can't just take the warm runs when there is no support behind it either and just say it is right when the pattern matches cold. It's just as objective as going extremely cold. If there was support from modality of zonal flow, a deep trough over the Pacific northwest then sure it's a torch pattern. But you can't just assume it's right when no model backs it. It's as much hype that way as saying record cold is coming from one or two runs of the GFS, going warm.

These pattern changes can be notoriously slow and often guidance and forecasts may be a little too quick. It doesn't happen overnight. Heck it hasn't even happened yet we are still in a mild pattern. It doesn't start to change until middle of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Great post....yes, mid month looks very promising and if we want to be greedy with sustained cold, I'd like to see more blocking over Greenland to keep the pattern locked in over North America. If not, these cold blasts might be very transient

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... hem_54.png

Looking at the 00Z GEFS Day 11+ Super Ensemble Analogs, there is a "hint" of a Greenland Block. We know that this far out things will change but overall I find this Hemispheric Pattern Change looking rather believable and likely not a one or two shot and done situation. Time will tell.

[Theepicman116]

I like the look of the GEF model!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

LR block over Alaska. Love it. Could be a December to remember if this pattern holds.

[wxman57]

The 11-12 day GFS has an ice storm for SE TX the 13th/14th. Highs in Houston only near 30. See? I told y'all that it would be icy in Texas this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_46.png

Yeah yeah yeah...and you also say the long range forecasts are so reliable ( sarcasm), but only if it is forecasting 90's...and to top it off, you still have that bi-polar avatar up...who do we believe sir? LOL

There, is that avatar better? I told you that I had my winter last year and that this winter would be much colder (and icy). In fact, I love the cold.

[Tireman4]

The 11-12 day GFS has an ice storm for SE TX the 13th/14th. Highs in Houston only near 30. See? I told y'all that it would be icy in Texas this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_46.png

Yeah yeah yeah...and you also say the long range forecasts are so reliable ( sarcasm), but only if it is forecasting 90's...and to top it off, you still have that bi-polar avatar up...who do we believe sir? LOL

There, is that avatar better? I told you that I had my winter last year and that this winter would be much colder (and icy). In fact, I love the cold.

You know, I want to believe you. I really do, but we have been left at the altar for so long now, I am just..well skeptical. You are partly to blame sir. You have made us all skeptics. LOL. You taunt us ( especially poor Porta), laugh at us, chortle uncontrollably when there are even hints at winter weather. I know you say you love cold, but sheesh. I know you said Winter would be much colder this year, but last year..well that was not a Winter.