Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

From FW

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/936574998550073345

[Yukon Cornelius]

Me personally, I don't think it has really anything to do with cynicism or anything. I think a lot of us don't want to believe the reality that we do live in Texas, where warmth wins 9 out of 10 times, especially lately. Even more the further south you go. The winters we all remember as a kid unfortunately seem to be a thing of the past. With the past 2 winters being really warm, we are all grasping onto anything that shows cold, the hype picks up and we are usually let down. I love cold weather just as much as most of us but with the past 2 winters its hard to believe anything until it happens. Lucy has pulled that football too many times in the past.

It goes the other way too. You can't just take the warm runs when there is no support behind it either and just say it is right when the pattern matches cold. It's just as objective as going extremely cold. If there was support from modality of zonal flow, a deep trough over the Pacific northwest then sure it's a torch pattern. But you can't just assume it's right when no model backs it. It's as much hype that way as saying record cold is coming from one or two runs of the GFS, going warm.

These pattern changes can be notoriously slow and often guidance and forecasts may be a little too quick. It doesn't happen overnight. Heck it hasn't even happened yet we are still in a mild pattern. It doesn't start to change until middle of next week.

I appreciate the response. As I’ve stated in the past, I know very little of the science behind patterns and changes. Most of my post are purely based off observations or are shared things from trusted folks with more knowledge than myself. However, from y’all and this site I have learned a few things which help more than anyone could imagine as my job is 100% controlled by the Weather; farming and ranching. My only frustration, along with probabaly many others is I wish forecasts and models were more reliable. For instance, when I come on here and see talk of cold coming, I have to plan all of my work around that, which takes numerous days to get things rearranged and planned out and when it vanishes, it’s like crap! Anyways, sorry to ramble, just wanted to give a little insight into my thinking. Like always, bring on the cold!

[wxman57]

You know, I want to believe you. I really do, but we have been left at the altar for so long now, I am just..well skeptical. You are partly to blame sir. You have made us all skeptics. LOL. You taunt us ( especially poor Porta), laugh at us, chortle uncontrollably when there are even hints at winter weather. I know you say you love cold, but sheesh. I know you said Winter would be much colder this year, but last year..well that was not a Winter.

I am a man of my word - you will get your cold and icy winter here in Texas this Dec-Feb. However, the spring, summer, and fall belong to me!

[Snowflake7]

Well I hope we actually get a winter. I'm getting discouraged already. Please winter gods, I beg you!!!!!!!!!

[Tireman4]

You know, I want to believe you. I really do, but we have been left at the altar for so long now, I am just..well skeptical. You are partly to blame sir. You have made us all skeptics. LOL. You taunt us ( especially poor Porta), laugh at us, chortle uncontrollably when there are even hints at winter weather. I know you say you love cold, but sheesh. I know you said Winter would be much colder this year, but last year..well that was not a Winter.

I am a man of my word - you will get your cold and icy winter here in Texas this Dec-Feb. However, the spring, summer, and fall belong to me!

Well sir, I hope you are right. Porta deserves this. He literally has been bereft of anything Winter related.

[Cpv17]

According to Joe B and his daily update today, he thinks that the cold blast that was forecasted by today’s 6z GFS is too far to the west and would go more towards the east and southeast rather than come straight south down to TX. Then whaddya know, the 12z run does just that. Pushes it more east rather than south. Sigh but that’s in fantasy land anyway so it doesn’t matter what the models are showing past 240 hours. Plus, I’m pretty sure Joe B thinks every cold blast is coming his way in the northeast.

[starsfan65]

According to Joe B and his daily update today, he thinks that the cold blast that was forecasted by today’s 6z GFS is too far to the west and would go more towards the east and southeast rather than come straight south down to TX. Then whaddya know, the 12z run does just that. Pushes it more east rather than south. Sigh but that’s in fantasy land anyway so it doesn’t matter what the models are showing past 240 hours. Plus, I’m pretty sure Joe B thinks every cold blast is coming his way in the northeast.

What does that mean?

[Cheyenne ridge]

According to Joe B and his daily update today, he thinks that the cold blast that was forecasted by today’s 6z GFS is too far to the west and would go more towards the east and southeast rather than come straight south down to TX. Then whaddya know, the 12z run does just that. Pushes it more east rather than south. Sigh but that’s in fantasy land anyway so it doesn’t matter what the models are showing past 240 hours. Plus, I’m pretty sure Joe B thinks every cold blast is coming his way in the northeast.

I stopped listening to that man years ago.Ive never seen a weather met literally wish cast.There are some good Mets on this board,and others on social media such as Larry Cosgrove who are unbiased.

[Cpv17]

Big changes on today’s 12z Euro. Looking much better for some cold weather around here next week according to this run. Has the core of the cold now going into the eastern third of TX and into Louisiana.

[CaptinCrunch]

Joe B is East bias, so yes it's only the NE that ever see's a winter...lol

[Cheyenne ridge]

Joe B is East bias, so yes it's only the NE that ever see's a winter...lol

lol right!!He is complaining because the euro shows it snowing down to the gulf coast late next week haha.

[orangeblood]

Big changes on today’s 12z Euro. Looking much better for some cold weather around here next week according to this run. Has the core of the cold now going into the eastern third of TX and into Louisiana.

Yep, according to this run, DFW's first freeze of the season would be next Friday morning Dec. 8th

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account
@BigJoeBastardi
1h1 hour ago
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Euro has it snowing all the way to the gulf coast late next week.
Interesting

[CaptinCrunch]

Big changes on today’s 12z Euro. Looking much better for some cold weather around here next week according to this run. Has the core of the cold now going into the eastern third of TX and into Louisiana.

Yep, according to this run, DFW's first freeze of the season would be next Friday morning Dec. 8th

haha, that's what I posted yesterday......Glad to see the models are finally getting abord the Crunch Train....

[Ntxw]

While lots of focus has been the beginning changes middle to late week (rightfully so as the North American pattern flips via the Pacific) the actual poleward progression of the -EPO isn't until Dec 10th-15th frame. That's likely when we will be watching for the first big high pressure dome of the season and will be of origin much further north.

As for the first front in a few days depending on what guidance you look at appears to be a Tuesday passage. GFS blast it through over night Monday and has been trending a bit chillier than prior runs with a strong North/Northwest wind. NAM doesn't go full out that far yet but looking upstream it is much tighter with the gradient, 30s behind the front and 60s just ahead of it so it suggests we may be in for quite a drop.

[Tejas89]

FWD is very ho-hum about next week.. cool front and moderating by Friday. No freeze in the metro.

[Yukon Cornelius]

While lots of focus has been the beginning changes middle to late week (rightfully so as the North American pattern flips via the Pacific) the actual poleward progression of the -EPO isn't until Dec 10th-15th frame. That's likely when we will be watching for the first big high pressure dome of the season and will be of origin much further north.

As for the first front in a few days depending on what guidance you look at appears to be a Tuesday passage. GFS blast it through over night Monday and has been trending a bit chillier than prior runs with a strong North/Northwest wind. NAM doesn't go full out that far yet but looking upstream it is much tighter with the gradient, 30s behind the front and 60s just ahead of it so it suggests we may be in for quite a drop.

Blue Norther?

[Ntxw]

While lots of focus has been the beginning changes middle to late week (rightfully so as the North American pattern flips via the Pacific) the actual poleward progression of the -EPO isn't until Dec 10th-15th frame. That's likely when we will be watching for the first big high pressure dome of the season and will be of origin much further north.

As for the first front in a few days depending on what guidance you look at appears to be a Tuesday passage. GFS blast it through over night Monday and has been trending a bit chillier than prior runs with a strong North/Northwest wind. NAM doesn't go full out that far yet but looking upstream it is much tighter with the gradient, 30s behind the front and 60s just ahead of it so it suggests we may be in for quite a drop.

Blue Norther?

Not quite that magnitude I don't think for the first one. GFS and Euro does have 0C or lower at 850s so surface should reflect close since it is a fairly deep airmass. Second front late week has deeper cold -6/-10C at 850s. That should easily translate to 20s.

[BigB0882]

Can anyone post a graphic of the Euro run showing snow down to the gulf coast? I know it’s too far out but down here sometimes a model graphic IS our biggest winter event. I would hate to miss it.

[Brent]

18z gfs keeps most of the fun east of us including a snowstorm down to the gulf coast in fantasy land

No freeze at DFW but temps below zero into north Georgia

Oh and i didnt see any snow down to the coast on the euro unless i missed something