#259 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:41 pm
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
If I were to reanalyze Isabel using what we have learned about storms in recent years, here is what I would change it to: (red - stronger, green - weaker, blue - additional points)
The biggest changes are pre-Recon, but I do think it was a bit weaker in the period from September 15 to 17, as it was undergoing major structural changes. No changes are made at landfall, as the 90 kt intensity is supported by then-experimental SFMR readings.
AL132003, ISABEL, 58,
20030906, 0000, , TD, 13.8N, 31.4W, 30, 1009, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030906, 0600, , TS, 13.9N, 32.7W, 35, 1008, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030906, 1200, , TS, 13.6N, 33.9W, 40, 1006, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030906, 1800, , TS, 13.4N, 34.9W, 45, 1004, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030907, 0000, , TS, 13.5N, 35.8W, 55, 999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030907, 0600, , TS, 13.9N, 36.5W, 60, 996, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030907, 1200, , HU, 14.4N, 37.3W, 65, 992, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030907, 1800, , HU, 15.2N, 38.5W, 70, 988, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030908, 0000, , HU, 15.8N, 39.7W, 80, 982, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030908, 0600, , HU, 16.5N, 40.9W, 95, 970, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030908, 1200, , HU, 17.1N, 42.0W, 110, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030908, 1800, , HU, 17.6N, 43.1W, 115, 954, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030909, 0000, , HU, 18.2N, 44.1W, 120, 951, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030909, 0600, , HU, 18.9N, 45.2W, 125, 948, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030909, 1200, , HU, 19.4N, 46.3W, 125, 947, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030909, 1800, , HU, 20.0N, 47.3W, 120, 950, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030910, 0000, , HU, 20.5N, 48.3W, 115, 954, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030910, 0600, , HU, 20.9N, 49.4W, 115, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030910, 1200, , HU, 21.1N, 50.4W, 120, 948, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030910, 1800, , HU, 21.1N, 51.4W, 125, 944, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030911, 0000, , HU, 21.2N, 52.3W, 140, 932, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030911, 0600, , HU, 21.3N, 53.2W, 145, 927, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030911, 1200, , HU, 21.4N, 54.0W, 150, 922, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030911, 1800, , HU, 21.5N, 54.8W, 160, 910, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030912, 0000, , HU, 21.6N, 55.7W, 150, 914, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030912, 0600, , HU, 21.7N, 56.6W, 150, 914, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030912, 1200, , HU, 21.6N, 57.4W, 145, 918, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030912, 1800, , HU, 21.7N, 58.2W, 140, 920, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030913, 0000, , HU, 21.8N, 59.1W, 135, 927, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030913, 0600, , HU, 21.9N, 60.1W, 125, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030913, 1200, , HU, 22.1N, 61.0W, 135, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030913, 1800, , HU, 22.5N, 62.1W, 145, 932, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030914, 0000, , HU, 22.9N, 63.3W, 140, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030914, 0600, , HU, 23.2N, 64.6W, 135, 939, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030914, 1200, , HU, 23.5N, 65.8W, 135, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030914, 1800, , HU, 23.9N, 67.0W, 140, 933, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030915, 0000, , HU, 24.3N, 67.9W, 130, 937, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030915, 0600, , HU, 24.5N, 68.8W, 120, 940, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030915, 1200, , HU, 24.8N, 69.4W, 110, 946, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030915, 1800, , HU, 25.3N, 69.8W, 105, 949, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030916, 0000, , HU, 25.7N, 70.2W, 95, 952, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030916, 0600, , HU, 26.3N, 70.5W, 90, 955, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030916, 1200, , HU, 26.8N, 70.9W, 90, 959, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030916, 1800, , HU, 27.4N, 71.2W, 85, 959, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030917, 0000, , HU, 28.1N, 71.5W, 85, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030917, 0600, , HU, 28.9N, 71.9W, 85, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030917, 1200, , HU, 29.7N, 72.5W, 90, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030917, 1800, , HU, 30.6N, 73.0W, 90, 955, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030918, 0000, , HU, 31.5N, 73.5W, 95, 953, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030918, 0600, , HU, 32.5N, 74.3W, 90, 956, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030918, 1200, , HU, 33.7N, 75.2W, 90, 956, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030918, 1700, L, HU, 34.9N, 76.2W, 90, 957, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030918, 1800, , HU, 35.1N, 76.4W, 85, 958, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030919, 0000, , HU, 36.7N, 77.7W, 65, 969, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030919, 0600, , TS, 38.6N, 78.9W, 50, 988, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030919, 1200, , EX, 40.9N, 80.3W, 35, 997, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030919, 1800, , EX, 43.9N, 80.9W, 30, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
20030920, 0000, , EX, 48.0N, 81.0W, 25, 1000, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,
Last edited by
CrazyC83 on Mon Dec 11, 2017 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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