Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Hey maybe this will be like hurricanes i quit believing those could happen too

But seriously i am concerned we'll flip to a warm pattern after this month which is why i feel like we have a few weeks or its not happening

[Brent]

GFS much colder next weekend, DFW comes very close to a freeze and highs only in the 40s

Also a band of 3-7" of snow just south of San Angelo Wednesday Night



CMC has no snow outside the Panhandle

[Yukon Cornelius]

Big ring around the moon for the last two nights.

[Brent]

the Euro has been consistent with about a half inch of rain at DFW Monday Night, so there's that

does not agree with the GFS next Saturday and has temps near 70, looks to have fropa Saturday Night

Mid 30s Sunday morning, so close and highs closer to 50 Sunday

[dhweather]

the Euro has been consistent with about a half inch of rain at DFW Monday Night, so there's that

does not agree with the GFS next Saturday and has temps near 70, looks to have fropa Saturday Night

Mid 30s Sunday morning, so close and highs closer to 50 Sunday

If I've learned one this so far this Fall/Winter, it is that you count on warm and dry, so at the moment, I believe the GFS. I blindly say that, haven't looked at any models, but the last month has shown me the light.

[gpsnowman]

A record high minimum is forecasted for Monday morning. Oh boy! Just hope we can get a little rain with the humidity in place and the cold front, which will get us to slightly below normal, will be a blessing. It is better than nothing.

[Ntxw]

It does look like guidance has been continuing the trend of cold air core to the east with the broad +PNA coming into the west. After draining the cold from Canada to slide southeast, said ridge warms W-Can up mildly. They glance Texas (eastern Texas) with cold shots.

Hopefully trends will reverse

[hriverajr]

To be honest.. after this Tuesday Morning Front.. its not like its going to be overly warm. The last several years it seems models have consistently been promising cold in the long range.. and rarely delivering.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What is the chance that the ridge and warmth locks in and stays put? It’s been a strange fall. I’ve never seen a first half of deer season so warm. I haven’t even had to wear medium weight or heavy weight gear. It’s been pretty miserable sweating while hunting. Also, looking at some of the extended forecasts, all of the cold that was forecasted is gone and replaced with 50s and 60s and only a couple light freezes. Sigh..

[gboudx]

What is the chance that the ridge and warmth locks in and stays put? It’s been a strange fall. I’ve never seen a first half of deer season so warm. I haven’t even had to wear medium weight or heavy weight gear. It’s been pretty miserable sweating while hunting.

It’s hard to bet against warmth. My expectations are tempered to just wanting highs in the 60s.

[Brent]

Only positive i can see at least it wont be 80 for a couple weeks

Beyond that i'm still waiting for winter

Like i said earlier DFW will get in the running for latest freezes ever mid month

[Ralph's Weather]

At least some of Texas looks to get decent snow outta this system. The Permian Basin and Hill Country could get 1-3 inches with local bigber amounts. We will see if it can sneak into SW N TX Wed night.

[JDawg512]

I'm desperately stretching out my arms to the east in a futile attempt to draw the area of rain back this way to no avail.

[Brent]

Long range gfs is warm warm and more warm

[starsfan65]

Long range gfs is warm warm and more warm

I hate warm!!!!!!

[gboudx]

The overnight Teleconnection Indices (-EPO /+PNA /-AO Regime) as well as the Long Range Ensembles suggest no significant changes regarding the Pattern Change ahead. The first shot of Canadian Air push in after a Cold Front arrives Tuesday with the Canadian front following Wednesday. The is a chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday as the cold front arrives. The fly in the ointment is some over running moisture looks possible as the Canadian Front arrives Wednesday with a chilly rain chance continuing into Thursday.

The Medium and Long Range ensemble guidance continue to advertise a series of Canadian Air dropping South every few days as a piece of the Polar Vortex becomes established near Hudson Bay at the Upper Levels with its Anticyclonic spin tapping into pieces of Upper Level Disturbances dropping South on the East side of a potent Upper Level Ridge building across the NE Pacific into Alaska creating a 'bridge' which will tap into some very cold Siberian Air that appears to plunge across the Artic into Canada and at least the Eastern 2/3rds of the United States. Expect each additional Cold front following next week to progressively bring colder shots of Polar/Canadian Air into the Lower 48 through at least the 15th to 17th of December. I will not take a shot at talking about precipitation beyond next week, but needless to say the Analogs of past similar patterns suggest someone across Texas and possibly Louisiana may see precipitation of the wintry type in such an Upper Air Pattern.

I'm still clinging to hope that what srain posted here actually happens.

[aggiecutter]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

TPBTrader: Got heavier. Station is pretty accurate but wow. Takes about 15 minutes to calculate. pic.twitter.com/R0l5GWE9nA
https://twitter.com/tpbtrader/status/937463224278179841

That is not a typo. 7" an hour rainfall rate for me at my station today in Missouri city. Pool overflowed. It was DUMPING. Takes 15 minutes to calculate the rainfall rate too. Crazy

[Brent]

I love the anomalies above normal over DFW on the GFS while it's snowing in Mexico...

[Ntxw]

Only a mere 300+ hours out after a near miss snowstorm to the north