Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Interesting NAM. These systems come in colder than progged typically. Whats the typical bias on the NAM again? Is it higher dewpoints?

NAM pushes the 850 MB OC isotherm past the gulf coast Thursday morning. We shall see.

The Crazy Canadian had snow down to the gulf coast of Alabama and MS. But it is the Canadian...

[gpsnowman]

Front is coming through Irving. Big wind shift and lightning in the distance. Already much cooler.

[Brent]

Sitting in my car at work in Wylie and just had a huge wind gust from the north

Its here its here i already feel cool air

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the sounding, freezing layer isnt very far above the surface. I want to say its just below the 900 MB layer just SW of Houston.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the sounding, freezing layer isnt very far above the surface. I want to say its just below the 900 MB layer just SW of Houston.

Yeah, warm layer is near the surface. DFW would be a wintry precip event if there was moisture since it's only the immediate surface layer warm. Austin is pretty close, Houston is a little warmer but perhaps the northern burbs. It's a sounding that may produce sleet or graupel mixed in. Some of the colder profiles is helped by the upper level vorticity coming through that is currently diving SE in California.

[Garyhughes68]

Nice rain and it's cooling down nicely here in Arlington.

[Brent]

fropa saved DFW from a record highest minimum today

May this be the end of record highs for awhile....

[Ralph's Weather]

Sitting on back porch enjoying the sound of the rain on the roof sipping on some whiskey. I think I may sit out here and wait on the front.

[Brent]

Euro has a brief freeze at DFW Friday morning this run, then near 70 by Sunday

Otherwise pretty zzz 0z models since the probably way too hyped up NAM.. the GFS was not even close to a freeze the entire run again and lots of above normal temps after this week(though nothing insane like we just saw)

[Ntxw]

Sitting on back porch enjoying the sound of the rain on the roof sipping on some whiskey. I think I may sit out here and wait on the front.

Felt the good air and the rain passing by on the evening dog walk. Got a bit more than a quarter of an inch

[Ntxw]

You never know what can happen in the weather department. Being cautiously optimistic is the best way to go, but at the same time it’s best to keep your expectations tempered a bit to save you some heartbreak because this is Texas after all. It’s also very much possible that the front comes in 2 or 3 degrees colder with a lil more precip. A surprise for many of us could be in the works.

It's curiosity more than anything. Some good advice there about expectations.


A little off the topic and a friendly reminder,

As Portastorm used to say "moderator hat on..."

We do have to keep discussions progressive. Sure we are in a warmer climate and many areas are seeing relentless warm records but this is the winter thread. The purpose of this thread is to discuss when/or if there is anything or any sign of potential "winter" weather. It's not about being right or being wrong it is about sharing ideas that someone else may or may not see. We should not antagonize warmth as if it is at fault of someone/something or the discussion, it is nature that none of us control. If we didn't discuss winter possibilities there would essentially be no need for a winter thread. It's no denying when we antagonize, we turn off the readers and discussion and it causes folks less likely to share their thoughts on potential. It's not as easy as you think to put together data and information and try to digest/share, it is personal time some seasoned folks do that they do not have to. I've seen this all too often in the tropical threads.

[somethingfunny]

We live in the South. It's usually pretty warm here

Every so often it can get cold for a little while and it's always a nice change of pace for me. I had sleet covering my porch in October! I'm not expecting any more wintry weather any more than I expected that last event.

[chaser1]

You never know what can happen in the weather department. Being cautiously optimistic is the best way to go, but at the same time it’s best to keep your expectations tempered a bit to save you some heartbreak because this is Texas after all. It’s also very much possible that the front comes in 2 or 3 degrees colder with a lil more precip. A surprise for many of us could be in the works.

It's curiosity more than anything. Some good advice there about expectations.


A little off the topic and a friendly reminder,

As Portastorm used to say "moderator hat on..."

We do have to keep discussions progressive. Sure we are in a warmer climate and many areas are seeing relentless warm records but this is the winter thread. The purpose of this thread is to discuss when/or if there is anything or any sign of potential "winter" weather. It's not about being right or being wrong it is about sharing ideas that someone else may or may not see. We should not antagonize warmth as if it is at fault of someone/something or the discussion, it is nature that none of us control. If we didn't discuss winter possibilities there would essentially be no need for a winter thread. It's no denying when we antagonize, we turn off the readers and discussion and it causes folks less likely to share their thoughts on potential. It's not as easy as you think to put together data and information and try to digest/share, it is personal time some seasoned folks do that they do not have to. I've seen this all too often in the tropical threads.

Boy, is THAT above statement ever so correct regarding some posters within the tropical threads lol. Like a number of "season cancels" around August 1 this past season LOL! Anyway, wishing you Texas folk a nice mixed bag of frozen precip! Trust me, us Florida peeps know what "Winter Envy" feels like. Looking at the 0Z GFS this eve., its my impression that mid level heights appear to be digging further south and southwest deep into Texas a good deal more than forecast a couple days ago. Here's to hoping that we all might keep this pattern around for a while!

[TexasF6]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS SAYING THAT WE MAY HAVE FROZEN PRECIP IN AUSTIN TX!!!!!

[Tejas89]

Yuck another record high at DFW yesterday.

We set the record for earliest last freeze This year... jan 8. Might we set the record for latest freeze... in the same year? absolutely crazy warmth we’ve had.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I'm trying to watch the video and for some reason it wont load, but by the graphics, it appears the weather channel is forecasting above normal warmth for all of December for Texas. I don't know how believable it is since they seem to change their winter and monthly forecasts almost daily.

[Snowman67]

Like some on here were saying- chance for a rain/snow mix in central Texas tomorrow afternoon/evening.


National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
427 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

TXZ141>144-156>161-174-175-052100-
Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-
Falls-Limestone-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton,
Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Lampasas, Copperas Cove,
Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia,
Groesbeck, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert
427 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

...Rain/Snow Mix Possible across Central Texas Wednesday afternoon
and Evening...

Areas of light rain are expected to develop late Tuesday night
into Wednesday across much of Central Texas. Temperatures are
expected to continue to cool through the day Wednesday. By
Wednesday afternoon, some light snow could mix with rain across
parts of Central Texas and continue into the evening hours before
all precipitation comes to an end. Surface temperatures are
expected to remain in the mid 30s during this time, so any wintry
precipitation should melt rather quickly. Any light accumulations
would be confined to grassy surfaces. As always, precautions
should be taken while driving on any elevated roads or bridges
when wintry precipitation is occurring.

[CentralTxAggie]

Yes, it is mentioned in the forecast for Fischer, Tx We'll see if it changes by this afternoon.
Wednesday - Rain. Temperature falling to around 37 by 5pm. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
Wednesday Night - Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

[CaptinCrunch]

The cold front felt good as it pushed through, as I was outside when it did and it was a sharp instant cold wind. As for any rain well it was a bust for my house, I did get some sprinkles but it was just enough to make the car dirty.

For the rest of this week we will be slighlty below average with temps in the mid to lower 50's for highs, mid 30's for lows and there will be some folks in the DFW area will see 32, just not at the airport.

[CaptinCrunch]

There will be a chance for a light rain/snow mix across western parts of Central TX on Wednesday. Impacts should be very minor with light accumulation of snow on primarily grassy surfaces. Caution is still advised on bridges, overpasses and other elevated surfaces. Otherwise, it'll likely just be a cold rain on Wednesday.