Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Garyhughes68]

:uarrow: I feel like this is a rouse, luring anglerfish at a school of surrounded red herring.

I don't condone violence, but let's send Gronkowski to visit him.....

[Ralph's Weather]

Getting lucky with a surprise small batch of moderate rain right now in Tyler. We are in for a raw couple days across the state. Not sure we get the out of the 40s today and pretty unlikely tomorrow.

[Tireman4]

Front passing through the Houston metro as we speak. Rain is lagging behind..Conroe area...

[Ntxw]

Front is definitely moving through the Houston area. Easy to pick out

[Rgv20]

12zNAM has a bullseye of 4" of Snow by Friday morning in my area....should I believe it??

[Rgv20]

12zCrazy Canadian has an inch of Snow and 5"+ just west of my area by Friday morning!

[Ntxw]

12zNAM has a bullseye of 4" of Snow by Friday morning in my area....should I believe it??

GFS has similar profiles but both models have surface temps above freezing. What I would take from guidance is a chilly rain possibly mixed, so worth keeping your eyes open

[Rgv20]

Yeap 12zGFS has 850mb Temps around -4 C Friday Morning but surface temperatures are in the mid 40s. My experience with the GFS is that it is almost always too warm with temperatures......if temperatures drop to the mid to uppper 30s we should see some mix fun down here come Thursday Night thru Friday morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Models may have under estimated low temps especially wednesday and thursday night. If over night lows for tonight go under forecasted temps, DFW may get to 32 by Thursday morning.

[Theepicman116]

Quick question y’all. Which NAM model on tropical tidbits is closes to what we’ll get near the surface? Because 32km, 12km And 3 km are all referring to the altitude level the model reads, right?

I’m new to this whole reading weather forecast models thing.

[Ntxw]

Quick question y’all. Which NAM model on tropical tidbits is closes to what we’ll get near the surface? Because 32km, 12km And 3 km are all referring to the altitude level the model reads, right?

I’m new to this whole reading weather forecast models thing.

The NAM models are the same. The difference is resolution. Guidance is programmed to be calculated in grids, the lower the value there is the smaller the grid boxes so the better the resolution. It's kind of like your tv in pixels, the more pixels you can fit on the screen the better your image. The numbers represents how small a "grid" is horizontally. The smaller the grid calculations the more grids boxes you can have to show a better picture. The larger the grid, the fewer and blurred resulting in lesser resolution.

That is why in close range the HI RES models are useful. Because they can paint a clearer picture that more broad globals like GFS may just try to blend things when really you can get pockets of sleet, snow etc while raining around elsewhere.

For the global models generally the ECMWF or Euro is superior in that department.

[Ralph's Weather]

Quick question y’all. Which NAM model on tropical tidbits is closes to what we’ll get near the surface? Because 32km, 12km And 3 km are all referring to the altitude level the model reads, right?

I’m new to this whole reading weather forecast models thing.

The numbers are the grid size, so 32km is pretty quick and dirty, 12km is pretty general and 3km is very small. I usually go with the 12km, the 3km sometimes overkill I feel like in many cases and it can give odd results around here beyond a day or so.

[Theepicman116]

Quick question y’all. Which NAM model on tropical tidbits is closes to what we’ll get near the surface? Because 32km, 12km And 3 km are all referring to the altitude level the model reads, right?

I’m new to this whole reading weather forecast models thing.

The NAM models are the same. The difference is resolution. Guidance is programmed to be calculated in grids, the lower the value there is the smaller the grid boxes so the better the resolution. It's kind of like your tv in pixels, the more pixels you can fit on the screen the better your image. The numbers represents how small a "grid" is horizontally. The smaller the grid calculations the more grids boxes you can have to show a better picture. The larger the grid, the fewer and blurred resulting in lesser resolution.

Ohh ok. Thank you so much for explaining that to me. I feel so enlightened now.

[wxman57]

Snow down to the Texas coast Thursday night/Friday morning - according to the 12Z NAM.

[Tireman4]

But but but..it is the NAM...LOL

[Theepicman116]

You know, models have been wrong in the past. In this case I hope the models are wrong and some parts of DFW get some accumulation. I don’t care if it’s just on the grass,bridges, overpasses and other elevelated surfaces. Some accumulation is better than no accumulation.


If not, then i guess just seeing snow flakes is fine too.

Edit: accumulation not acculturation.....

[Ntxw]

Snow down to the Texas coast Thursday night/Friday morning - according to the 12Z NAM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_47.pn

Even better right in your backyard on the Canadian! Sure why not right? You do love your snow

[stormlover2013]

models have a hard time with this stuff, you never know, it's always the surprising systems that you don't think its going to happen and then boom it does..

[wxman57]

Yep, the Canadian says Texas is going to get a lot of snow Thursday into Friday. It sucks for tropical cyclones, but what about winter weather?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Interested to see that sounding lol.

Are temps coming in cooler than guidance? Havent had time to check today. You Dallas folk have any data?