Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, the Canadian says Texas is going to get a lot of snow Thursday into Friday. It sucks for tropical cyclones, but what about winter weather?

I remember a few years ago when it had a huge win on a winter storm around here. Since then I have always at least paid attention to it, though with plenty of skepticism. It typically is overly aggressive with its totals. I like using the RGEM when the event is a couple days out to get an idea on the upper end potential. The NAM typically offers the low end of the wintery precip potential, but it is can pick out the fine details better than the global models and it is good with temps. The GFS doesn't really have a spot in my analysis for short range forecasting.

[gpsnowman]

Yep, the Canadian says Texas is going to get a lot of snow Thursday into Friday. It sucks for tropical cyclones, but what about winter weather?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_14.png

That has got to be one of the oddest looking snow maps I have ever seen.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It's a quite plausible map, just needs the temps to be 10 degrees cooler haha. No big deal.

[orangeblood]

Mid to Late Month is beginning to look much more favorable for wintry weather in the southern plains....Big Arctic HP's are beginning to break off in the 10-15 range coming down the back side of the Strong PV in Eastern Canada, and S/W energy potentially breaking through the Pacific Ridge. Also, Pacific Ridge in a much better position later this month, patience my fellow Storm2k friends!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Yep, the Canadian says Texas is going to get a lot of snow Thursday into Friday. It sucks for tropical cyclones, but what about winter weather?

That has got to be one of the oddest looking snow maps I have ever seen.

The upper levels are very cold and elevations are much higher out there so not super surprising then you add in precip falling during nighttime as it moves east and it is plausible. It will sure be interesting if it does happen. There will likely be more mixing and melting than the GEM indicates though so amounts outside of the mountains will likely be much lower. This can be seen using Tropical Tidbits new tools which shows positive snow depth change vs how much 10:1 snow it shows. Ratios will be more like 5:1 likely if that.

[stormlover2013]

what does euro show?

[Brent]

Lol there are some strange snow maps with this one

Wish the air wasnt so dry in DFW or I'd be more intrigued up here

[orangeblood]

According to the latest Euro, DFW's official 1st freeze will be this Friday, Dec. 8th

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I agree with Orangeblood, lots of potential coming. Liking some of the dynamics that are in place now, I think it gets even better for the last half of the month.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like my house will be barely within the rain/snow mix line. Hope so!

http://kxan.com/2014/02/25/daily-forecast-2/


An upper level disturbance will swing across Texas bringing a chance for a mix of rain and snow across the northern part of our forecast area Wednesday afternoon and night. We expect little or no accumulation over most of the area, but very light accumulation of snow is possible over the Edwards Plateau.


An upper level disturbance behind a strong cold front will create a chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday. Rain could be mixed with snow over the northern part of the area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Skies will clear Thursday night and this may allow for a freeze across portions of the area Friday morning. Sunny and warmer weather will move in for the end of the week.

[CaptinCrunch]

Wednesday........A 20 percent chance of rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Wednesday Night........Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. North northwest wind around 5 mph.
Thursday........Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. North northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday Night.........Mostly clear, with a low around 31. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest after midnight.

DFW will get our first official freeze, maybe 2

If so I called it on the 30th http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=118636&start=340
If not then you see nothing here....LMAO

[wxman57]

Yep, the Canadian says Texas is going to get a lot of snow Thursday into Friday. It sucks for tropical cyclones, but what about winter weather?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_14.png

That has got to be one of the oddest looking snow maps I have ever seen.

No, it's quite realistic. The Canadian develops a west Gulf low close to the coast. Overrunning moisture over the cold air at the surface produces precip, but only over coastal counties. The ECMWF has a west Gulf low, too, but it's way offshore. This leaves the TX coast high and dry (and cold). Canadian also has lows in the low 20s across Houston (mid teens Lafayette, LA). I'm not saying I believe the Canadian model. While I'd like to see snow here, I'm not holding my breath. More likely we'll see cold air (upper 30s to low 40s) and a bit of drizzle, if any precip at all by Thursday night.

[wxman57]

what does euro show?

Mid to upper 30s and dry for Lumberton. Not enough moisture for precip Thursday night.

[stormlover2013]

thanks my man, maybe it will change who knows lol

[wxman57]

One thing to watch for as far as snow in south Texas is the formation of a west Gulf low. This is a low that forms on the cold front off the TX coast. The key to the formation of the low is the 500mb vorticity max reaching west Texas. As a general rule of thumb, when the 500mb vort max reaches El Paso, the west Gulf low forms. This is indicated in the graphic below. Now this doesn't mean we'll always get snow, as one vital component is sub-freezing air in the lower few thousand feet. It's a very delicate balance. If the low forms too close to the coast, then the surface air will not be cold enough for snow. If the low forms too far offshore (like with the ECMWF), then we have the cold air but no precip.

Given the quite warm coastal water temps, I think that this will be a cold rain event for coastal counties. Maybe very little precip at all Thursday night. The precip may fall from about 10-15 thousand feet up and evaporate before reaching the ground.

[Portastorm]

Thank you sir for the nice map and synoptic explanation. We see this set up usually several times during the winter season and it's always intriguing to watch from a meteorological perspective. Just goes to show that it takes many, many factors to produce snow in areas where snow shouldn't fall.

I have noticed over the years that sometimes that upper level energy shears out as it crosses the state and seems to transfer energy into the lower levels and into a Gulf coastal low.

[Ralph's Weather]

Gulf low development during winter is always interesting to watch. Hopefully we get one this year closer to shore so inland areas can get a good snowstorm.

[Ntxw]

Mid to Late Month is beginning to look much more favorable for wintry weather in the southern plains....Big Arctic HP's are beginning to break off in the 10-15 range coming down the back side of the Strong PV in Eastern Canada, and S/W energy potentially breaking through the Pacific Ridge. Also, Pacific Ridge in a much better position later this month, patience my fellow Storm2k friends!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... hem_47.png

The flow has been changing. We've been seeing flow out of the southwest and west, that's shift now to Northwest and of N Pacific origin. We're still waiting on the wind direction coming out of the Arctic hopefully via big HP systems.

It's interesting that this system the northern part of the state is not seeing much action, because it is too cold aloft and everything is further south along the boundary of warm and cold

[Tireman4]

One thing to watch for as far as snow in south Texas is the formation of a west Gulf low. This is a low that forms on the cold front off the TX coast. The key to the formation of the low is the 500mb vorticity max reaching west Texas. As a general rule of thumb, when the 500mb vort max reaches El Paso, the west Gulf low forms. This is indicated in the graphic below. Now this doesn't mean we'll always get snow, as one vital component is sub-freezing air in the lower few thousand feet. It's a very delicate balance. If the low forms too close to the coast, then the surface air will not be cold enough for snow. If the low forms too far offshore (like with the ECMWF), then we have the cold air but no precip.

Given the quite warm coastal water temps, I think that this will be a cold rain event for coastal counties. Maybe very little precip at all Thursday night. The precip may fall from about 10-15 thousand feet up and evaporate before reaching the ground.

http://wxman57.com/images/GFS1.png

Drat...why can we not have mountains near the coast?

[weatherdude1108]

Mid to Late Month is beginning to look much more favorable for wintry weather in the southern plains....Big Arctic HP's are beginning to break off in the 10-15 range coming down the back side of the Strong PV in Eastern Canada, and S/W energy potentially breaking through the Pacific Ridge. Also, Pacific Ridge in a much better position later this month, patience my fellow Storm2k friends!!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... hem_47.png

The flow has been changing. We've been seeing flow out of the southwest and west, that's shift now to Northwest and of N Pacific origin. We're still waiting on the wind direction coming out of the Arctic hopefully via big HP systems.

It's interesting that this system the northern part of the state is not seeing much action, because it is too cold aloft and everything is further south along the boundary of warm and cold

I saw James Spann on his blog today mentioning how you would normally see severe weather along the front this time of year nearing Winter with such drastic change in air masses, but it's not the case this time, with just general thunder along it (talking about the Alabama area). He didn't question or explain why no severe weather, just mentioned it. Thought it was interesting. I wish he were in Texas. It's great to listen to his forecasts.