Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#661 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:33 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Curious, what are the factors contributing to a low being positive vs negative tilt?


A number of factors contribute. Usually when you have cold air already in place the energy will round about the base of the trough, it is during the front end (where cold meets warm) air is when systems are most likely to go negative tilt. Luck and timing.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#662 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 05, 2017 6:53 pm

18z gfs dumps the cold into Texas the week before Christmas

Subject to change next run
1 likes   
#neversummer

Garyhughes68
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:18 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#663 Postby Garyhughes68 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:51 pm

Wed.18z GFS shows some snow across Ntx. :wink:
1 likes   

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#664 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:03 pm

Brent wrote:18z gfs dumps the cold into Texas the week before Christmas

Subject to change next run


I hope it doesn't change. If we can just get some snow in here with it! :froze:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#665 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:05 pm

0z NAM

Image

Bet Porta isn't buying that!
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#666 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:25 pm

8 inches just west of austin on the nam

:roflmao:
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#667 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:30 pm

Highs Thursday 30s for most on the NAM. After 30s for some tomorrow in central Texas

And if that's remotely close you can say the globals missed it late last week in model runs. For which they have trended colder anyhow
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#668 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:38 pm

Just read several days of posts from the December 2013 winter event and I started drooling like a baby. Tonight is the 4th anniversary!!! I want a winter storm. :( I hope Porta sees some snow tomorrow.
4 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38090
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#669 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:46 pm

Snow in Brownsville and Corpus Christi on the nam :double:
1 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#670 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:While lots of focus has been the beginning changes middle to late week (rightfully so as the North American pattern flips via the Pacific) the actual poleward progression of the -EPO isn't until Dec 10th-15th frame. That's likely when we will be watching for the first big high pressure dome of the season and will be of origin much further north.

As for the first front in a few days depending on what guidance you look at appears to be a Tuesday passage. GFS blast it through over night Monday and has been trending a bit chillier than prior runs with a strong North/Northwest wind. NAM doesn't go full out that far yet but looking upstream it is much tighter with the gradient, 30s behind the front and 60s just ahead of it so it suggests we may be in for quite a drop.


I still stand by the above post from last week. The pattern has changed over the weekend and it's becoming more clear. The models were right the core of the cold will be east but they underestimated the breadth of cold coverage. The strong block in W-NW America has shifted the pattern. It's still looking like the retrogression of the ridge is likely with nearly all guidance still showing it moving offshore as it marches towards the favored Nina configuration in the Aleutians.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#671 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:18 pm

Surprisingly though this little system does have some tropical feed to it from the Pacific. Kind of odd given the cold Nina like waters. Except for one big caveat, the very warm waters extending just north of the ENSO regions that's kept the PDO from going negative.

Image

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#672 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:28 pm

:uarrow: That SST looks very similar to 95/96 which was a very good winter for winter weather lovers in southern plains particularly in Jan/Feb
3 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#673 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:35 pm

orangeblood wrote::uarrow: That SST looks very similar to 95/96 which was a very good winter for winter weather lovers in southern plains particularly in Jan/Feb

February 1996, the last single digit reading at DFW with an 8° low one morning I believe. We are way overdue for another. Good luck with urban heating.
1 likes   

User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#674 Postby gboudx » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:39 pm

Update from jeff:

Winter Storm will move into Texas Wednesday…accumulating snow likely over far SW TX into the extreme NW Hill Country, and NE MX.

Snow may mix with rain across the far northern portions of SE TX Wednesday night.

Snow may mix with rainfall across the coastal bend Thursday night/Friday morning.

Strong 110kt jet core approaching the Mexican border this evening with large area of lift starting to develop over TX. Radars show enhancing returns both near the coast and across central TX and this will increase in coverage and intensity overnight. Models have becoming much more aggressive in rainfall trends today with both the GFS and ECMWF showing widespread light to at times moderate rainfall and also extending rainfall into Thursday. Temperatures will continue to fall tonight and through much of the day on Wednesday given strong cold air advection along with rainfall and advecting drier air which will help lower wet bulb temperatures. Will go with temperatures steady in the mid 40’s on Wednesday.

Wednesday night:
Profiles start to become a bit more favorable for snow production across our northern counties Wednesday night as more dry air enters the region helping to cool the air column through precipitation evaporating. Expect surface temperatures north of a College Station to Livingston line to remain above freezing, but the air column above may locally cool enough to allow a rain/snow mix along and north of that line. Think most areas will stay as a very cold rain, but trends have been for both greater moisture and a slightly cooler air column and will need to monitor this on Wednesday for any additional cooling trends. Current thermal profiles are just a bit too warm to get much excitement over those northern counties on Wednesday night. Southward over the rest of SE TX, wet bulb temperatures are in the mid to upper 30’s which should preclude any significant cooling of the air column. Both NAM and GFS show the freezing level falling early Thursday morning, but it looks like rain will be ending by the time the thermal profile would support a rain/snow mix further southward over a larger portion of SE TX. Would not totally rule out some sleet Thursday morning, but thermal profiles really do not support it, but I have seen stranger things happen

Thursday night/Friday morning:
A cold upper level trough will move across south Texas and there appears to be just enough moisture in the atmosphere to potentially result in a rain/snow mix or even change to snow across portions of the middle TX into the Rio Grande plains and possible as far east as Corpus Christi. Think the local air mass over SE TX will have dried out enough by this time to prevent any precipitation this far north and without any evaporative cooling the thermal profile actuals warms some away from Matagorda Bay. While surface temperatures are expected to remain above freezing…if a full changeover to snow were to occur and any sort of meso banding develops snowfall rates could overcome the ground warmth and allow for some minor accumulations.

Uncertainty over the next 48 hours is large given the changing factors at play and the potential for locally enhanced cooling which could yield P-type changes over a large portion of the state. Additionally, advection of drier air surges from the NNE and overrunning moisture from the SW will compete allowing differences in where precipitation falls and how much.
1 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22785
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#675 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:40 pm

0Z GFS (includes sleet)

Image

Quite a snowstorm out in far west Texas. Alpine Texas is lovely this time of year, or any time of year. Will be picturesque with the white mountains in the background that are usually brown.
2 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
iorange55
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2388
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2008 9:47 pm
Location: Big D

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#676 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Quite a snowstorm out in far west Texas. Alpine Texas is lovely this time of year, or any time of year. Will be picturesque with the white mountains in the background that are usually brown.



Was just there in Alpine/Big Bend a few weeks ago! It was magnificent. Wish I was there now too!
0 likes   

JayDT
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 354
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 12:55 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#677 Postby JayDT » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:46 pm

Ntxw wrote:0Z GFS (includes sleet)

http://i68.tinypic.com/2ia77nd.png

Quite a snowstorm out in far west Texas. Alpine Texas is lovely this time of year, or any time of year. Will be picturesque with the white mountains in the background that are usually brown.


Am I seeing a little bit of accumulations closer to the DFW area in that map?? Or have the models been showing that for a while?
0 likes   

User avatar
EnnisTx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 896
Joined: Sat Dec 26, 2015 4:06 pm
Location: Albany, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#678 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:11 pm

JayDT wrote:
Ntxw wrote:0Z GFS (includes sleet)

http://i68.tinypic.com/2ia77nd.png

Quite a snowstorm out in far west Texas. Alpine Texas is lovely this time of year, or any time of year. Will be picturesque with the white mountains in the background that are usually brown.


Am I seeing a little bit of accumulations closer to the DFW area in that map?? Or have the models been showing that for a while?


Yep, it's not much, but things can happen in a hurry when trying to forecast winter weather. :D
1 likes   

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#679 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:56 pm

Nice moderate to heavy rain going on at the Weatherdude Center right now. :D
45 degrees.
:rain: :cold:
2 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3269
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#680 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:05 am

Precip so far tonight has been more widespread and intense than modeled. Temps are maybe a tad cooler, but nothing drastic. Big difference seems to be that the surface dewpoints are higher than they were modeled earlier. My temp here is 45 with a 28 dp and i am getting light rain at a RH of only 51%. Also seeing reports of sleet in the Metroplex already. Heavier precip should bring more of these reports later tonight and tomorrow morning.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests