Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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BigB0882
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#701 Postby BigB0882 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:20 am

NOAA.gov is showing a chance of rain/snow overnight Thursday with 40% and then 70% chance of rain/snow Friday morning in Baton Rouge. I don't even care that much since it wouldn't be an accumulating event and temps look to stay above freezing. I would like any reason for them to cancel school, though, this teacher wouldn't mind a 3 day weekend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#702 Postby davidiowx » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:25 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#703 Postby Tejas89 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:43 am

NWS forecast today for Waco is 80% wintry mix with some light accumulation. Expect some reports to show up here. :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#704 Postby WacoWx » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:01 am

Facebook reports of sleet falling in Waco.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#705 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:09 am

WacoWx wrote:Facebook reports of sleet falling in Waco.

Seeing plenty of mPING reports near Waco of sleet.

Everyone should log any wintery precip reports to that app. It is very useful in these events and the data gets integrated into research.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#706 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:13 pm

NWS FTW

Thursday is likely to be the coldest day over the next week as
another strong vort max rotates through the larger upper trough
and into North Texas. Strong deep layer cold advection will
persist for much of the day with brisk northerly winds at the
surface. In addition, there will be some mid level moisture which
will likely result in fairly extensive cloud cover. These clouds
are likely to hold temperatures in the low to mid 40s areawide
during the afternoon. The clouds are expected to clear out
Thursday night as the best moisture is pushed a little farther
south, however this is also the time that stronger forcing for
ascent begins to spread into North Texas as the shortwave crosses
the region. It appears that moisture will be significantly limited
to produce any precipitation and skies should remain mostly cloud
free. That being the case, temperatures should fall accordingly.
Winds are expected to remain high enough to inhibit optimal
radiational cooling, but it will be cold nonetheless. Most areas
should see temperatures fall into the mid 20s with DFW expecting
its first freeze of the season.


Forecast low is now 26 for DFW :cold: oddly enough Dec 8th last year was the first official freeze as well.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#707 Postby EnnisTx » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:17 pm

:uarrow:

I'll take lows in the 20s to get rid of these dang bugs!!! :grrr:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#708 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:28 pm

That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#709 Postby ronyan » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:30 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?


The average first freeze for DFW is November 22 per NWS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#710 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:30 pm

EnnisTx wrote::uarrow:

I'll take lows in the 20s to get rid of these dang bugs!!! :grrr:


I have found out over the years, bugs are very resilient. You get a die off but the larvae etc will come back out if it gets warm again. Even if it gets down to 14 degrees :lol:. Especially in the urban areas where warmth can be found even on cold nights.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#711 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:31 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?


DFW airport is in the midst of big urban development. It did manage 34 in October and 35 in November while everyone else had a freeze. So really I take it as an arbitrary official freeze this year. Unlike the past few years when it hardly even froze outside the urban core before the official freeze. I read that only Phoenix had a warmer central core to outter temp difference growth rate. Not surprisingly the two are among the top in fastest population gains.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#712 Postby lrak » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:33 pm

If it snows like Christmas 2004 in CC TX the fins come off the surfboard and my 4 wheeler will pull you around. Only need about an 1" to accomplish this winter fun. CC TX is completely flat except for the downtown area which has a park on the bay with about a 50 yard ride down hill. Come on snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#713 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:54 pm

Sleet reports all over southern East Texas. Dry here is Tyler, but precip is trying to fall. I am thinking that it will overcome the dry air here fairly soon for a bit allowing Tyler to see some rain/sleet early this afternoon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#714 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:01 pm

I wonder if Victoria is going to be too far north for any suprises?? I remember Christmas 04 we were only supposed to see a few flakes that night and it drastically turned into a blizzard... Whats the difference with this storm? Could a low form over mexico and come across again like back then?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#715 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:04 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:I wonder if Victoria is going to be too far north for any suprises?? I remember Christmas 04 we were only supposed to see a few flakes that night and it drastically turned into a blizzard... Whats the difference with this storm? Could a low form over mexico and come across again like back then?

Every event is different, but the set ups do appear similar so we will see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#716 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:07 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?


Warm and Cold phases run for decades, counting this Dec this will be 9 of the last 20 winter seasons that the first freeze didn't occure till Dec (1998-2017) This is much like 1921-1935 where 11 of 15 winter seasons 1st freeze was in Dec.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#717 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:09 pm

Interesting GFS sounding for 18Z tomorrow over central Houston. Lots of precip, and all precip is occurring in a deep sub-freezing air column. However, relatively dry conditions in the lower couple thousand feet with a surface temp in the upper 40s.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#718 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:10 pm

Wxman do you think i have a better shot here in Victoria
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#719 Postby wxman57 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:15 pm

jaguars_22 wrote:Wxman do you think i have a better shot here in Victoria


According to the 12Z GFS, the warm air (above 32F) extends up to about 6000 ft over Victoria tomorrow, which encompasses the lower few thousand feet of the precip column. This means less of a chance of any sleet or snow there. However, the NAM is much colder aloft over Victoria (and all of southeast Texas) than the GFS, and it's later with the precip (Thursday night vs. mid day). Perhaps what eventually happens will be somewhere in between. It does look, interesting...

Slim to no chance of seeing anything non-liquid accumulating, with the warm ground and above-freezing temps. Fair chance of seeing sleet or even some snowflakes that quickly melt.

Note that it's not even winter yet and I'm already making good on my promise after last winter that this winter will be colder and icy across Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#720 Postby jaguars_22 » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:30 pm

I just dont think its cold enough this time around...
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