Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z ECMWF from Ryan Maue's new website. Band of snow across Texas Thursday night. Too dry for precip north of the coastal counties.

Link to his page: http://weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa_3hr.php

[Snowman67]

Wxman do you think i have a better shot here in Victoria

According to the 12Z GFS, the warm air (above 32F) extends up to about 6000 ft over Victoria tomorrow, which encompasses the lower few thousand feet of the precip column. This means less of a chance of any sleet or snow there. However, the NAM is much colder aloft over Victoria (and all of southeast Texas) than the GFS, and it's later with the precip (Thursday night vs. mid day). Perhaps what eventually happens will be somewhere in between. It does look, interesting...

Slim to no chance of seeing anything non-liquid accumulating, with the warm ground and above-freezing temps. Fair chance of seeing sleet or even some snowflakes that quickly melt.

Note that it's not even winter yet and I'm already making good on my promise after last winter that this winter will be colder and icy across Texas.

Weatherman 57 - If the NAM should verify (colder and later with the precip), would this give us in SE Texas a shot at seeing a few sleet pellets and/or snow flakes?

[Tireman4]

According to the 12Z GFS, the warm air (above 32F) extends up to about 6000 ft over Victoria tomorrow, which encompasses the lower few thousand feet of the precip column. This means less of a chance of any sleet or snow there. However, the NAM is much colder aloft over Victoria (and all of southeast Texas) than the GFS, and it's later with the precip (Thursday night vs. mid day). Perhaps what eventually happens will be somewhere in between. It does look, interesting...

Slim to no chance of seeing anything non-liquid accumulating, with the warm ground and above-freezing temps. Fair chance of seeing sleet or even some snowflakes that quickly melt.

Note that it's not even winter yet and I'm already making good on my promise after last winter that this winter will be colder and icy across Texas.

How do we know this is you? How do we know you have not been hijacked sir? We need proof. You have steered us wrong before...

[wxman22]

12z Euro is very interesting indeed, this setup looks very similar to the Christmas Eve 2004 snow event.

[Ralph's Weather]

Here's the 12Z ECMWF from Ryan Maue's new website. Band of snow across Texas Thursday night. Too dry for precip north of the coastal counties.

Link to his page: http://weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa_3hr.php

Thanks for that link. Very useful.

[stormlover2013]

just remember models have a hard time down here, usually when it snows down here it's always a surprise !!

[Brent]

The nam has the full length of the Texas coast with snow

[jaguars_22]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

[Theepicman116]

Can y’all send some of that snow up here to North Texas? Please and thank you

[Brent]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

[davidiowx]

Man that is like 4 NAM runs in a row showing snow down here and other models are hinting at it. Going to be very interesting tomorrow evening into Friday morning!

[Ralph's Weather]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

A large portion of our posters are from North Texas

[Brent]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

A large portion of our posters are from North Texas

I will admit I'm not totally convinced on accumulations down on the coast, flakes falling sure but widespread accumulations like on the NAM just seems so hard to believe... heck its not even that cold really. Christmas 2004 analog is well and good but its warmer here(admittedly had the same skepticism too though)...

[Rgv20]

18zNAM consistent on showing a couple of inches of snow Thursday Night/Friday Morning! Latest run has 4" of snow for my area! Pattern resembles that of Christmas 04 but with less cold at the surface.

[jaguars_22]

RGV whats your guess on my area in Victoria?? Is this something that will only be for CC to Brownsville??

[weatherdude1108]

That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?

DFW airport is in the midst of big urban development. It did manage 34 in October and 35 in November while everyone else had a freeze. So really I take it as an arbitrary official freeze this year. Unlike the past few years when it hardly even froze outside the urban core before the official freeze. I read that only Phoenix had a warmer central core to outter temp difference growth rate. Not surprisingly the two are among the top in fastest population gains.

That's unfortunate. It's like comparing apples to broccoli. One could argue that years of data sets in the same area are skewed because of surrounding development around the sensors. At the same time, I don't know how you would change that to make the readings more accurate to represent historical data at the site. It's like you can say the planet is heating up, yet it can be argued that the sensors have gotten progressively more surrounded by concrete, asphalt, and vehicles, producing inaccurate, unrepresentative biased-warm readings of the true background state of the atmosphere and vegetation.

It's almost like you need to have a dedicated large acreage grassy field in the urban core to be as representative as possible. San Antonio's official observation station is visible from the highway near the airport when you drive by it. It is in a field with a white box, with sensors on it to measure wind speed, direction, temperature, rainfall, etc. Austin's weather station is Camp Mabry, which is usually biased-warm because of surrounding urbanization, whereas Bergstrom airport is usually biased cool because it is a natural low spot where cold dense air accumulates.

Anyway, that has always bothered me with temperature observations and how true and accurate they really are in a populated area. We need sensors all over the ocean and Antarctica for a true analysis. Sorry, going on a tangent.

It's been chilly and rainy here all day today! 41 at both Mabry and Bergstrom at 3:20pm.

[Brent]

yeah the urban development in DFW in general it just makes me wonder if we're gonna see new normals on temperatures... it seems like every week something new is built here... my parents were here at the end of March and so many things have changed just since then lol

I can hear from my room crews starting to build houses in an open field as i type

[Rgv20]

RGV whats your guess on my area in Victoria?? Is this something that will only be for CC to Brownsville??

My best guess would be some mix precipitation from SE Texas all the way down to Brownsville. Going to be interesting seeing the observations tomorrow evening/night to see if temperatures drop to the low to mid 30s as the NAM/CMC/ECMWF suggest or stay in the low 40s as the GFS suggest.

[Ntxw]

That blows my mind that DFW hasn't had a freeze yet. With a few days in November with lows in the 20s here, its crazy that not even a light freeze occurred down that way. What is the date of the average first freeze in DFW?

DFW airport is in the midst of big urban development. It did manage 34 in October and 35 in November while everyone else had a freeze. So really I take it as an arbitrary official freeze this year. Unlike the past few years when it hardly even froze outside the urban core before the official freeze. I read that only Phoenix had a warmer central core to outter temp difference growth rate. Not surprisingly the two are among the top in fastest population gains.

That's unfortunate. It's like comparing apples to broccoli. One could argue that years of data sets in the same area are skewed because of surrounding development around the sensors. At the same time, I don't know how you would change that to make the readings more accurate to represent historical data at the site. It's like you can say the planet is heating up, yet it can be argued that the sensors have gotten progressively more surrounded by concrete, asphalt, and vehicles, producing inaccurate, unrepresentative biased-warm readings of the true background state of the atmosphere and vegetation.

It's almost like you need to have a dedicated large acreage grassy field in the urban core to be as representative as possible. San Antonio's official observation station is visible from the highway near the airport when you drive by it. It is in a field with a white box, with sensors on it to measure wind speed, direction, temperature, rainfall, etc. Austin's weather station is Camp Mabry, which is usually biased-warm because of surrounding urbanization, whereas Bergstrom airport is usually biased cool because it is a natural low spot where cold dense air accumulates.

Anyway, that has always bothered me with temperature observations and how true and accurate they really are in a populated area. We need sensors all over the ocean and Antarctica for a true analysis. Sorry, going on a tangent.

It's been chilly and rainy here all day today! 41 at both Mabry and Bergstrom at 3:20pm.

Above the surface is not much different. Air is constantly moving, the biggest effects is near the ground where the concrete jungle is. So it effects highs and lows but not so much if the air column is cold enough for snow.

Really DFW should have been at single digits superbowl week, most surrounding areas were but that 5+ degree urban heat island helped prevent

[Portastorm]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

Oh please ... don't even ...