Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Ok so the nam is on steroids... now shows 3 inches for central texas coast??!! So which one will win GFS- nothing, or Euro,CMC, Nam,- trace to 3 inches

Why is it so quiet on here??

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

Oh please ... don't even ...

I knew that would get a response...

at least Dallas has seen snow more recently than Austin

BTW where's all the snow the NAM had today?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Referring to Wxman sounding, thats what ive found interesting. Very cold above the surface and below freezing for most of the column except the closest to the surface. In 1994 we had a snow event here in Houston where it snowed for about 8 hours and temps started at 42 degrees. Temps will be around the same temperature tomorrow evening and i am now buying into the possibility. I dont think it will stick but snow falling seems to be a real possibility.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX stated they have a "very complicated short term period". I don't know the last time the Austin area saw snowflakes before Christmas. Anyone know? Not to say it will happen tomorrow. If it does, won't stick. It was in the 80s on Monday.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
341 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
A very complicated short term period in regards to winter weather
prospects overnight and through Thursday. The rain shield currently
observed across South Central Texas will evolve to include snow mixed
in this evening and overnight for locations mainly on the Plateau and
Hill Country but could reach as far east as the I-35 corridor.
Exhaustive interrogation of forecast soundings have not made things
much easier either. While surface temperatures will struggle to fall
due to an extensive cloud shield over the region, they will come very
close to the freezing threshold across western Val Verde, much of
Edwards and Real counties, and into Gillespie and Kerr counties.
However, low level temperature profiles have been trending colder
lending more credence to the possibility for snow/rain mix, and
perhaps even all snow for periods of time after midnight until
daybreak for these same areas. Farther to the southeast, reaching the
I-35 corridor, rain should be the most dominant precip type, but
still cannot rule out some snowflakes mixed in as well.

Regardless, with surface temperatures likely to hover at or just
above freezing for these areas, and still quite a bit above freezing
elsewhere, little to no accumulations are expected. If accumulations
do occur, they will likely be dustings at best, likely in far western
Val Verde and across our northern CWA border to Gillespie county.
Perhaps more of a concern is any standing water due to today`s
rainfall activity freezing on bridges and overpasses where
temperatures will be the coldest, again in the Hill Country and
Plateau areas.

Tomorrow morning, some folks may wake to find a few snowflakes still
before transitioning back to all rain late in the morning and into
the afternoon hours. The rain shield is expected to push slowly
southward over the course of the day and likely south of San Antonio
shortly after the noontime hour. Have trended PoPs down over the
course of the day tomorrow closely following the trends of the TTU-
WRF and HREF.

Even colder temperatures are expected Thursday night and overnight
into Friday morning and if lingering rain activity continues in the
southern zones when temperatures begin to fall to near freezing, some
wintry mix could be seen in our southwestern zones, but again, no
accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
As the shortwave responsible for this cold front passes over Friday,
it will begin a trend of warming through the weekend, reaching highs
in the 60s over the weekend and through the first half of next week.

By mid week, a broad and weak low over the Gulf of California is
expected to slowly traverse over the US/Mexico border. While a dry
forecast is expected through the week during this transition, our
next best shot at PoPs could be Friday as this low further weakens
into a shortwave as it passes over Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

yeah the urban development in DFW in general it just makes me wonder if we're gonna see new normals on temperatures... it seems like every week something new is built here... my parents were here at the end of March and so many things have changed just since then lol

I can hear from my room crews starting to build houses in an open field as i type

Please don’t take this wrong way, but I don’t think the Urban development has a ton to do with it, and I think some of y’all are just a tad impatient.

The Winters from 2008-2014/15 was a damn impressive run of Winters. The Winters from 2001-2007 were kinda meh with spotty moments. The 1990s absolutely sucked for Winters. The 1980s were decent. The 1970s were fantastic. The 1950s and 1930s were horrid decades for Winter Weather and there was minimal urbanization then.

Point is we have climate optimums from time to time, and we are in a mini one with the occasional highlight. We will see a 2012-2014 again soon IMO.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Frank Billingsley is in, IM IN! Snow possible friday morning he thinks

[Portastorm]

Because we live in Dallas where it doesn't snow

Oh please ... don't even ...

I knew that would get a response...

at least Dallas has seen snow more recently than Austin

BTW where's all the snow the NAM had today?

You troll!

Brent, I'll tell you what ... I haven't posted on our thread about the actual models but from what I have seen ... the NAM has been too cold and too wet. Now it's usually too wet and that is a known bias but with this event and around my neck of the woods, it's surface representations have been too cold. I'm not buying this snow forecast at all. Yes, many of the short range models (NAM, SREF, HRRR, and Tech's WRF) are suggesting it'll get close to Austin but other than a few scattered reports of a snowflake or two overnight ... I don't think we'll get anything but our usual cold rain here.

Now for areas out west in the Hill Country and SW Texas and maybe even parts of South Texas ... they may get lucky.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

By the way, I’m glad to be back on the forums and do my normal hit and run from november through March and then depart when the weather gets real predictable and depressing from April thru October.

Cheers to Winter!

[Rgv20]

18zGFS went a bit colder for Friday Morning (40F) and on the Precipitation type it has Snow falling for McAllen/Edinburg area.

[lrak]

Frank Billingsley is in, IM IN! Snow possible friday morning he thinks

Who is Frank Billingsley a local weather forecaster? Never mind I Googled it.

[JDawg512]

Rain is finally increasing in areal coverage. I'm satisfied for the time being. Will be a lovely day, looking forward to a nice strole in the park.

Great news! Looks like a nice rain shield in the southern parts of Austin, whereas it has let up here for the time being. My gauge shows an inch since yesterday. Been so dry, this is nice! Hope it keeps up. After tomorrow, no telling when next chance is. Snow would be icing on the cake (so to speak).

So far just after 4 p.m. about 0.80" has fallen here at the Rain Cave. Would like to see that over an inch. The next system in the forecast doesn't look promising at this time.

Was out in the back yard just a while ago watching a couple of poofy tailed squirrels running around picking up some sticks. The white tipped stripes on the sides of their tails is what caught my attention as I have not seen coloration like that in years. Could it be a sign of a possible upcoming snow event this winter??? Hmmm...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Oh please ... don't even ...

I knew that would get a response...

at least Dallas has seen snow more recently than Austin

BTW where's all the snow the NAM had today?

You troll!

Brent, I'll tell you what ... I haven't posted on our thread about the actual models but from what I have seen ... the NAM has been too cold and too wet. Now it's usually too wet and that is a known bias but with this event and around my neck of the woods, it's surface representations have been too cold. I'm not buying this snow forecast at all. Yes, many of the short range models (NAM, SREF, HRRR, and Tech's WRF) are suggesting it'll get close to Austin but other than a few scattered reports of a snowflake or two overnight ... I don't think we'll get anything but our usual cold rain here.

Now for areas out west in the Hill Country and SW Texas and maybe even parts of South Texas ... they may get lucky.

All I know is Portastorm might find something else to kick if this winter season ends with Laredo or Corpus getting even trace amounts of snow and Austin gets noting buy drizzle!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently clearing off up here with a temp of 54. Forecasted low of 29 tonight. Tomorrow, a high of 39 and tomorrow night a low of 22. Chilly weather on tap for sure.

[northjaxpro]

Don't underestimate the NAM. NAM is a pretty decent model pertaining to winter-time synoptics. I definitely would never discount it folks.

[JDawg512]

Currently clearing off up here with a temp of 54. Forecasted low of 29 tonight. Tomorrow, a high of 39 and tomorrow night a low of 22. Chilly weather on tap for sure.

Not often do we see it colder here than up there. Temp is struggling to get above 40.

[Brent]

Currently clearing off up here with a temp of 54. Forecasted low of 29 tonight. Tomorrow, a high of 39 and tomorrow night a low of 22. Chilly weather on tap for sure.

Not often do we see it colder here than up there. Temp is struggling to get above 40.

56 here, not even really cold for December lol

Will be colder tomorrow though

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is it safe to say the models "busted" with this pattern for Texas. Especially South Texas?

Our weather guys had us getting no lower than the upper 50's today into Friday and that was as of Monday.

[Cpv17]

Is it safe to say the models "busted" with this pattern for Texas. Especially South Texas?

Our weather guys had us getting no lower than the upper 50's today into Friday and that was as of Monday.

Every single time we get a significant front through our region where there’s overrunning and post frontal precipitation, the forecast always has high temperatures too warm especially 3+ days out. I remember just 3 days ago they were calling for highs in the low to mid 50’s across southeast TX for today and it’s in the low to mid 40’s instead. It happens every year. You would think by now they would know better, but apparently they haven’t caught on yet.

[jaguars_22]

I wonder why there is no special statement out yet for central texas coast and lower... If theres a chance of snow and sleet wouldnt they issue something??

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Is it safe to say the models "busted" with this pattern for Texas. Especially South Texas?

Our weather guys had us getting no lower than the upper 50's today into Friday and that was as of Monday.

Every single time we get a significant front through our region where there’s overrunning and post frontal precipitation, the forecast always has high temperatures too warm especially 3+ days out. I remember just 3 days ago they were calling for highs in the low to mid 50’s across southeast TX for today and it’s in the low to mid 40’s instead. It happens every year. You would think by now they would know better, but apparently they haven’t caught on yet.

I hate to say it, but instinct and real world observation of past events has gone out the window thanks to model reliance. I'm not saying throw out the models, but like with Hurricanes down in this part of the country when a model says a storm might be a Cat 1, you better prepare for a 3 or 4 or worse. That's what I like about this board because you have some seasoned pros and wantabee pros warning people to keep a watch for Harvey as it unfolded. Twitter was a valuable tool as well for Harvey.

Back before the net became the standard to get info, I always used the old timer Weather forecasters at NWS Brownsville as my winter weather alarm. I grew up down there and those guys back in the 80's when we had two severe freeze events filled in by several minor ones were spot on. They would issue a "bears watch" two or three weeks out and then sure enough, a cold event would come about.

[Brent]

I wonder why there is no special statement out yet for central texas coast and lower... If theres a chance of snow and sleet wouldnt they issue something??

they're obviously at least not right now buying significant snow/sleet

Can't say I'm that surprised

Corpus Christi did put one out for even the city