Texas Winter 2017-2018

[weatherdude1108]

Rain is finally increasing in areal coverage. I'm satisfied for the time being. Will be a lovely day, looking forward to a nice strole in the park.

Great news! Looks like a nice rain shield in the southern parts of Austin, whereas it has let up here for the time being. My gauge shows an inch since yesterday. Been so dry, this is nice! Hope it keeps up. After tomorrow, no telling when next chance is. Snow would be icing on the cake (so to speak).

So far just after 4 p.m. about 0.80" has fallen here at the Rain Cave. Would like to see that over an inch. The next system in the forecast doesn't look promising at this time.

Was out in the back yard just a while ago watching a couple of poofy tailed squirrels running around picking up some sticks. The white tipped stripes on the sides of their tails is what caught my attention as I have not seen coloration like that in years. Could it be a sign of a possible upcoming snow event this winter??? Hmmm...

Interesting! Not familiar with that one. Kind of like the Texas Sage blooming before a rain, or is that after a rain? Anyway. Cool!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Currently clearing off up here with a temp of 54. Forecasted low of 29 tonight. Tomorrow, a high of 39 and tomorrow night a low of 22. Chilly weather on tap for sure.

Not often do we see it colder here than up there. Temp is struggling to get above 40.

Strange isn’t it? Aside from the panhandle we are usually one of the coolest places in Texas. I think it has a lot to do with the Red River

[gboudx]

Currently clearing off up here with a temp of 54. Forecasted low of 29 tonight. Tomorrow, a high of 39 and tomorrow night a low of 22. Chilly weather on tap for sure.

Not often do we see it colder here than up there. Temp is struggling to get above 40.

Strange isn’t it? Aside from the panhandle we are usually one of the coolest places in Texas. I think it has a lot to do with the Red River

If you're in a valley it could definitely be the case. Cold air sinks.

[dhweather]

Probably dead on +324 hours.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Winter Storm will move across TX through early Friday.

Periods of rain mixed with sleet and snow possible tonight and again Thursday night/Friday morning.

Cold surface high pressure has built southward over the region with temperatures hovering in the low 40’s much of the day. Rainfall coverage has been plentiful today, but amounts have been generally light. Will focus on the potential for P-type transition tonight and again on Thursday night and any possible accumulations.

Tonight:

Widespread light rainfall will continue through the night as moisture overruns the cold surface dome. Surface temperatures will slowly fall into the upper 30’s overnight and some slight cooling of the air column could result in some sleet or snow mixed in with the rainfall north of I-10. Since surface temperatures ae expected to remain well above freezing any sleet/snow would melt on contact with the warm ground.

Thursday:

Expect mostly light rainfall through the day, but a strong upper level trough will approach the region Thursday afternoon with large scale lift developing. Near the surface a surge of drier air will be advecting into the region from the NNE and this will likely result in the rain shield sagging southward during the day and gradually ending from the north to the south by the afternoon hours. Will keep temperatures in the 40’s again on Thursday.

Thursday night/Friday AM:

Forecast becomes highly complicated as all winter weather events are in this part of the state. Strong trough approaches the region spring strong lift over the area. Moisture profiles are marginal, but maybe a little wetter than expected yesterday. Temperature profiles are also marginal, but better than tonight so the potential for a rain/sleet/snow mixture is slightly better on Thursday evening into Friday morning. Much will depend on how dry the surface layer becomes and if any precipitation can actually reach the ground. Think the best chances for this will be along the coast and toward Matagorda Bay. Also to be noted is some weak instability in the mid levels which can sometimes result in meso scale banding in these sort of winter weather setups that can locally enhance precipitation rates and cool the air column…we do not have a lot of experience with this down here, but snow events in 2004 and 2009 both had these fingerprints. Appears the best chances for rain mixed with sleet and snow will be along the coast and then across the coastal bend region where models are more aggressive with moisture. Not sure the thermal profiles will be as favorable as shown…meaning there may be more rain…but the trend today has been in all guidance for a higher threat of mixed precipitation especially down SW.

Other aspect that will come into play Friday morning is low temperatures which could reach freezing over portions of the area. Think the best area likely to see freezing temps. or below is along and N of HWY 105, but this is also to likely be the region with the least precipitation if any at all. Where precipitation is the heaviest (south of I-10) surface temperatures will likely remain above freezing. However should any locally enhanced snow/sleet develop then local cooling of the surface temperature toward freezing is possible and this could result in some ability of accumulation.

Overall at this time the factors involved appear to be just slightly enough out of phase to preclude widespread winter precipitation or accumulation over the region, but something that will need to be watched closely on Thursday as the parameters all come into play over the area and model trends become reality

[Cerlin]

Probably dead on +324 hours.

Let's hope this is just a bad run. I'm getting way too excited with this small dwindling morsel of hope of snow and cold air to have it melted away by wall to wall heat.

[gboudx]

Probably dead on +324 hours.

[Brent]

Rick Mitchell just predicted .75" of snow in Dallas this winter



GFS lost the arctic air but also isnt that warm... no 70s on the DFW meteogram

[starsfan65]

Rick Mitchell just predicted .75" of snow in Dallas this winter



GFS lost the arctic air but also isnt that warm... no 70s on the DFW meteogram

when is this?

[Brent]

Rick Mitchell just predicted .75" of snow in Dallas this winter



GFS lost the arctic air but also isnt that warm... no 70s on the DFW meteogram

when is this?

the snow? It's a forecast for the whole winter, had typical la nina, warm and dry

[starsfan65]

Rick Mitchell just predicted .75" of snow in Dallas this winter



GFS lost the arctic air but also isnt that warm... no 70s on the DFW meteogram

when is this?

the snow? It's a forecast for the whole winter, had typical la nina, warm and dry

no the cold air.

[Brent]

when is this?

the snow? It's a forecast for the whole winter, had typical la nina, warm and dry

no the cold air.

there is none on the GFS after this week

[Ralph's Weather]

I'll take my chances with NE Pacific blocking along with Arctic blocking than cold air will find its way down here.

[Ntxw]

I'll take my chances with NE Pacific blocking along with Arctic blocking than cold air will find its way down here.

As I said before, if you were looking for a real warm pattern, look for Pac NW low and ridge up the middle of country, or zonal flow. That's how you blowtorch in winter, in TX.

So aside from a 300+ hour show by the GFS here and there, no support from the ensembles for such a pattern. That's how you know its a false look.

[wxman57]

I've rarely seen the models forecasting such cold air aloft during a precip event as they are for tomorrow night (Texas coastal counties). I don't think there will be road issues, but it could be an interesting night tomorrow night.

[jaguars_22]

It looks like the snow and sleet will be south of Victoria... I just hope I will see snow flakes or sleet mix at least

[Rgv20]

0zNAM Snowfall forecast just

[Snowman67]

I've rarely seen the models forecasting such cold air aloft during a precip event as they are for tomorrow night (Texas coastal counties). I don't think there will be road issues, but it could be an interesting night tomorrow night.

What would have to happen for some of the frozen precip to make it into the Houston area (north of I-10)?

[jaguars_22]

The CMC has doubled its totals as well!!! Wow

[South Texas Storms]

It's important to remember when looking at the model snowfall maps that they are assuming a 10-1 snow-liquid ratio. In this case, it will probably be closer to 5:1, so we should probably cut those totals at least in half.