Texas Winter 2017-2018

[1900hurricane]

I really appreciated having a cold airmass that wasn't bone dry for a change. Lots of people hate on cold rain, but it was icing on the cake for me today for some reason. Up to 0.99" of slow, steady rain on the event here.

[South Texas Storms]

But I will say the trend on the 0z models so far is to hold back the precip a bit longer allowing it to possibly changeover to snow for a few hours tomorrow night before ending across portions of south Texas.

Curious to see what the Euro shows in a few hours.

[JDawg512]

Starting to get some sleet/tiny ice pellets mixed in with the rain here at the Rain Cave.

[JDawg512]

Great news! Looks like a nice rain shield in the southern parts of Austin, whereas it has let up here for the time being. My gauge shows an inch since yesterday. Been so dry, this is nice! Hope it keeps up. After tomorrow, no telling when next chance is. Snow would be icing on the cake (so to speak).

So far just after 4 p.m. about 0.80" has fallen here at the Rain Cave. Would like to see that over an inch. The next system in the forecast doesn't look promising at this time.

Was out in the back yard just a while ago watching a couple of poofy tailed squirrels running around picking up some sticks. The white tipped stripes on the sides of their tails is what caught my attention as I have not seen coloration like that in years. Could it be a sign of a possible upcoming snow event this winter??? Hmmm...

Interesting! Not familiar with that one. Kind of like the Texas Sage blooming before a rain, or is that after a rain? Anyway. Cool!

Not sure if it means much, however as was talked about a couple of pages back about how animals haven't gotten their winter costs in some areas of the state, it seems like the squirrels here have thickened up their coats. Don't normally see thick poofy tails let alone white hair tips along the sides. Usually just brown tails, but these guys definitely had some silver/white on the tails. That's what got my attention. Then again they could just be old squirrels too lol.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro has about a half inch from Corpus up to Houston, up to an inch between Laredo and Corpus. Heaviest snow is almost perfectly on the Mexico side of the border

[Cpv17]

looks like the Euro has about a half inch from Corpus up to Houston, up to an inch between Laredo and Corpus. Heaviest snow is almost perfectly on the Mexico side of the border

Hey that’s better than nothing! Dallas and north Texas will get their turn. Just keep the faith.

[Ntxw]

I've rarely seen the models forecasting such cold air aloft during a precip event as they are for tomorrow night (Texas coastal counties). I don't think there will be road issues, but it could be an interesting night tomorrow night.

Turns out the 2004 storm might have been a good analog after all. If a coastal low does indeed develop then maybe similar totals too.

[Ntxw]

looks like the Euro has about a half inch from Corpus up to Houston, up to an inch between Laredo and Corpus. Heaviest snow is almost perfectly on the Mexico side of the border

Hey that’s better than nothing! Dallas and north Texas will get their turn. Just keep the faith.

You guys enjoy it down south! North Texas has had its fair share almost every winter while you all got nil for years so it is about time. Aside from 2015-2016 we've at least seen snow fall every season since 09, while Porta and gang have yet to see a flake.

[Brent]

looks like the Euro has about a half inch from Corpus up to Houston, up to an inch between Laredo and Corpus. Heaviest snow is almost perfectly on the Mexico side of the border

Hey that’s better than nothing! Dallas and north Texas will get their turn. Just keep the faith.

You guys enjoy it down south! North Texas has had its fair share almost every winter while you all got nil for years so it is about time. Aside from 2015-2016 we've at least seen snow fall every season since 09, while Porta and gang have yet to see a flake.

it is kind of weird how north and south of Austin gets more snow than Austin Christmas 2004 now this.

I should remember that the next time I hate Dallas weather.

[Ntxw]

Hey that’s better than nothing! Dallas and north Texas will get their turn. Just keep the faith.

You guys enjoy it down south! North Texas has had its fair share almost every winter while you all got nil for years so it is about time. Aside from 2015-2016 we've at least seen snow fall every season since 09, while Porta and gang have yet to see a flake.

it is kind of weird how north and south of Austin gets more snow than Austin Christmas 2004 now this.

I should remember that the next time I hate Dallas weather.

That's the freezing drizzle capital for ya. Sits in a void, if its snowing in Dallas it is probably too warm in KAUS, if its snowing in Houston, coastal low robs them of moisture...the stars aligning isn't enough

Will be interesting east of here too. I'm waiting to see if LA, MS, GA sees snow out of this fairly far to the south.

[Ntxw]

I looked at the numbers for Austin, the last greater than 1" (pure snow, not mix of sleet and ice) was in Feb 2004 valentines day that gave the northern half of Texas a snowstorm. Before that you have to go back to 1985 (the big cold snap) for 3"+

[Brent]

meanwhile the 6z NAM has a band of 6-9 INCHES from Corpus Christi SSW to the Mexican Border...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've rarely seen the models forecasting such cold air aloft during a precip event as they are for tomorrow night (Texas coastal counties). I don't think there will be road issues, but it could be an interesting night tomorrow night.

Turns out the 2004 storm might have been a good analog after all. If a coastal low does indeed develop then maybe similar totals too.

You really think so? Those totals were WAY higher than what they are forecasting. That event was not expected at all. Some of the dynamics are similar, but also, some are different. The ULL was a little more on its own then it is in this case. Able to go negative tilt at the right time.

NWS has a 90% chance of wintry mix for us tonight....

[Ntxw]

I've rarely seen the models forecasting such cold air aloft during a precip event as they are for tomorrow night (Texas coastal counties). I don't think there will be road issues, but it could be an interesting night tomorrow night.

Turns out the 2004 storm might have been a good analog after all. If a coastal low does indeed develop then maybe similar totals too.

You really think so? Those totals were WAY higher than what they are forecasting. That event was not expected at all. Some of the dynamics are similar, but also, some are different. The ULL was a little more on its own then it is in this case. Able to go negative tilt at the right time.

NWS has a 90% chance of wintry mix for us tonight....

Synoptically they are close I think. Not as negative tilt as 2004 so maybe not the precip shield coming back in from the gulf like back then for monster totals but impressive still

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont know how much warm air it takes to melt snow aloft, but if the short range models are showing such cold air aloft at noon today like they are, i dont see why we cant get snow falling in north houston today. Parts of me want to say we can see it much further south as well since the column is so cold, but im not sure. This event could happen today I think and go through the evening.

[richtrav]

Has anyone compared this to December 1997? It was also early in the season and brought a lot of snow to northern Mexico.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok they are very similar. Also, temps aloft i bet are very similar too. Surface temps, the 2004 event was much cooler. 10-15 degrees cooler.
So what does it all mean for us? Possible we get much more moisture than we are currently anticipating?

[Ntxw]

It is possible to get cooler. You never know with these systems. They can bring down colder air if precip is heavy enough.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: It is possible to get cooler. You never know with these systems. They can bring down colder air if precip is heavy enough.

True. Specifically with 2004, the forecast was so far off at that time. They werent optimistic for hardly any snow at all.
The bullseye for that event was around Victoria, TX.
When will the gulf low develop?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Something is off. Either the cold air aloft, or the surface temps. I think they both could be some. Of course im biased, but the surface temp seems much too warm. I dont see the temp climbing at all today with precip falling. This sounding is for this afternoon.