BOB: 04B - Depression

[doomhaMwx]

Between Borneo and Peninsular Malaysia...

93W INVEST 171128 0000 4.2N 107.2E WPAC 15 NA



*Edited to update thread title.

[doomhaMwx]

This is the one that GFS and ECMWF have been developing into at least a Tropical Storm over the Andaman Sea or Bay of Bengal, after crossing Peninsular Malaysia or Southern Thailand.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N
104.0E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM NORTH OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 290213Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC WITH WEAK BANDING. A 290212Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT WEAK CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WINDS NEAR
THE CENTER AND 20 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE
MALAY PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL WITH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
AFTER THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER NEAR TAU 48 TO 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[1900hurricane]

Not much organization at the moment. Looks like it's starting to basin hop.

[doomhaMwx]

06Z JTWC coordinates has it centered west of the Malay Peninsula.

93W INVEST 171130 0600 6.2N 98.0E WPAC 20 1005

[doomhaMwx]

93W INVEST 171202 0000 4.7N 95.4E WPAC 25 1006

[doomhaMwx]

IMD now classifies 93W as a Depression.
The system should remain weak, with intensification into a Cyclonic/Tropical Storm looking less likely now.

Latest observations and satellite imageries indicate that the well marked low pressure
area over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighbourhood concentrated into a Depression and
lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 06 December, 2017 near Latitude 8.5º N and
Longitude 88.5 ºE, about 1160 km to the southeast of Machillipatnam and 1250 km southsoutheast
of Gopalpur ...

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Deep Depression by IMD...

The Deep Depression over central Bay of Bengal moved further north-northwestwards
with a speed of about 33 kmph during past 6 hours, and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today,
the 08th December, 2017 over westcentral Bay of Bengal near Latitude 15.0 ºN and
Longitude 86.8 ºE, about 510 km south-southeast of Gopalpur and 610 km east-southeast of
Machilipatnam. It is likely to maintain intensity of deep depression for about 12 hrs and
weaken gradually into a depression during subsequent 12 hrs. The system is very likely to
move north-northwestwards and reach north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts
around 9th December morning as a depression.

[1900hurricane]

JTWC has classified it as 04B now.

[doomhaMwx]

Weakening off the Odisha coast... JTWC has issued final warning, while IMD also downgrades to Depression from Deep Depression.




IMD:

The Depression over northwest Bay of Bengal moved north-northeastwards with a
speed of about 11 kmph during past 6 hours and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the
09th December, 2017 over northwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 19.5 ºN and Longitude
86.7 ºE, about 90 km south of Paradip and 280 km south-southwest of Digha. The system is
very likely to move north-northeastwards along & off Odisha coast towards West Bengal and
adjoining Bangladesh coast. It is very likely to maintain its intensity during 24 hours &
weaken gradually into a well marked low during subsequent 12 hours.

[doomhaMwx]

00Z GFS and ECMWF 48hr rainfall accumulation...
Rainfall accumulations in some places may reach/exceed 100mm.