Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

Thanks. Funniest thing is our local TV Mets down played this up through last night. Said we could possibly get up to 1/2 an inch to 1 inch locally at best. Guess I can't blame them though, in years past when all models were showing us getting hammered we received next to nothing so they probably just played the odds. Know it's not an official measuring board but this is our hammock about 2 hours before it tapered off

http://i294.photobucket.com/albums/mm10 ... 1kwi60.jpg

None of your pictures displays. I get a message "Please update your account to enable 3rd party hosting". Photobucket won't let you use the links on this forum unless you upgrade your account.

[Ntxw]

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account
@BigJoeBastardi
3m3 minutes ago
More
Tweet from yesterday explaining GEFS did not make sense at 12z with trough near Hawaii and eastern ridge. Correction evident now but still not enough Model run yesterday vs now. Euro even more bullish for cold plains east Christmas week ( that includes Texas)

[bubba hotep]

long range GFS for Christmas(subject to huge changes)

70s December 21st, 22nd and 23rd(warmest temps the entire run here, fortunately its 2 weeks out) then a cold front and rain and much cooler leading into Christmas Eve

Not really anything else noteworthy this run

The next 7 to 10 days look lame for DFW with a return of the mild & dry pattern (not that the Dry ever left). However, there has been a pretty significant shift in the ensembles heading into Christmas. Thursday the EPS had a dramatic flip in just 12hrs from 00z to 12z:



The EPS has maintained the switch since then and now seem to support another cold shot around Christmas. A lot depends on the MJO and if it actually maintains and propagates. The models earlier in the week were trying to kill it off but now are trying to move it around into P7 & 8. If the MJO fails, then the warm pattern probably persist with decreasing AAM and the Nina background state flexing.

[Ntxw]

There is a modeled storm next weekend. Guidance do not have much cold air with it as it keeps the northern stream separate but it is a potent ULL with a lot of time to change. If there is a colder air mass coming, then that might be a candidate storm to lead the edge. It could phase with a system to the south of it, meaning at least a good opportunity for rain.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks. Funniest thing is our local TV Mets down played this up through last night. Said we could possibly get up to 1/2 an inch to 1 inch locally at best. Guess I can't blame them though, in years past when all models were showing us getting hammered we received next to nothing so they probably just played the odds. Know it's not an official measuring board but this is our hammock about 2 hours before it tapered off

http://i294.photobucket.com/albums/mm10 ... 1kwi60.jpg

None of your pictures displays. I get a message "Please update your account to enable 3rd party hosting". Photobucket won't let you use the links on this forum unless you upgrade your account.

Well crap i see that, they were showing yesterday. Guess will have to figure out another way to try and get them back up

[KatDaddy]

Going to in Ft Worth for Christmas week. Perhaps I will see my second snowfall this year.

[Ralph's Weather]

There is a modeled storm next weekend. Guidance do not have much cold air with it as it keeps the northern stream separate but it is a potent ULL with a lot of time to change. If there is a colder air mass coming, then that might be a candidate storm to lead the edge. It could phase with a system to the south of it, meaning at least a good opportunity for rain.

I've been waching that storm for a couple weeks, we have continually referred to a mid month storm. It looks tobe a pretty strong southern stream system. Models at least as of yesterday were keeping it pretty dry and no cold air involved. We will see if that hold true. Upper lows crossing the state in winter always will have my attention though.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Here you go wxman57

[wxman57]

Not bad for a fall snowstorm.

[Brent]

beautiful pictures

Now what does the actual winter hold. Still cant believe its December 9th...

[northjaxpro]

Very impressive snow cover. Those pictures are great Cyclone Mike!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

beautiful pictures

Now what does the actual winter hold. Still cant believe its December 9th...

Knowing our luck, warm and dry.

[Brent]

beautiful pictures

Now what does the actual winter hold. Still cant believe its December 9th...

Knowing our luck, warm and dry.

That's certainly the euro through the week before Christmas. Lot of 70s and zero rain

[TheProfessor]

New Avatar. We will probably finish near an inch here(unless we get under a lake enhanced ban) the snow was the lovely big and fluffy type.

[TheProfessor]

Wow, it's so amazing how frigid cold with really good lift can over achieve. We were predicted to have 15:1 ratios, but it was probably close to 20:1, I measured 1.5 inches of snow on a day I would have been satisfied with a trace.

[hamburgerman7070]

Hi guys. I'm from ne Arkansas. I've posted before but its been a while. Have a few questions, mainly for ntxw or bubba hotep. What phases are the cold stormy phases of the MJO for this time year? The MJO dacula weather link is tough to figure out, not so much with the phase diagram, but the composite stuff. Also, what about the chances of a SSW? Is it too early for one and I know we have had minor disturbances so far.

[orangeblood]

Euro and GFS Ens are beginning to see the potential for a Major Arctic Outbreak into the lower 48 around Christmas....might be time for a "McFarland Watch" as the McFarland Signature or "backward S" is beginning to show up in the long term quite consistently!!

[weatherdude1108]

Wxman57 hooked me up with getting pics on here. Finally getting around to share a few of mine here from Thursday and Friday. We didn't get as much as some posted, but most since 2014 here!

[Brent]

0z GFS has a very wet pattern before Christmas then a cold unsettled pattern for Christmas with a cold rain Christmas Eve and an ice storm Christmas Day in DFW and snow along the Red River