WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

FXXT03 EGRR 091611

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.12.2017

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.4N 131.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.12.2017 11.8N 133.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.12.2017 14.0N 134.1E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.12.2017 15.8N 133.5E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

916 mb over Samar

[doomhaMwx]

It appears that this will be a slow-moving system over the Philippine Sea during the next several days.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO only peaks this at 998 mb before a luzon landfall...

[cycloneye]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N
135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101203Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PARTIAL PASS SHOW A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED FLARING
CONVECTION. A 101202Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH PRIMARILY 5-10 KNOT WINDS AND ISOLATED 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO
THE WEST. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), BUT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS). NAVGEM AND GFS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT ARE DIVIDED AS
TO WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW
INTENSIFICATION AND ARE DIVIDED AS TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

Upgraded to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 135.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7N 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 165
NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN
110038Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FEEDER BANDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP TO
THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MOSTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS), AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR (PTKR) SHOW
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 11 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1005.7MB AND A 24-HOUR
SLP DECREASE OF ABOUT 1MB. NAVGEM AND GFS INDICATE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SYSTEM, WHICH SLOWLY DRIFTS POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[doomhaMwx]

GFS and ECMWF ensemble tracks for 96W...

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 110905
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 11/0830Z

C. 7.8N

D. 132.1E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN CENTER FIX POSITION BUT LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
APPEAR TO BE ROTATING UNDER THE EAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SHEARED
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPIRAL/LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LOCATED UNDER THE EAST EDGE OF A LARGE COLD OVERCAST. DT=1.5 MET=1.0
PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET SINCE THIS IS THE INITIAL CLASSIFICATION THAT
NEEDS FT=1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...VELASCO

[euro6208]

NAVGEM and GFS pretty strong on this. NAVGEM takes it out to sea, EURO likes Luzon but on a weakening phase, and GFS peaks this out at sea and brings its remnants down to Visayas.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a broad monsoon depression.

[ManilaTC]

JMA has upgraded this to a <30kt Tropical Depression

WARNING AND SUMMARY 111800.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08N 131E WNW SLOWLY.

[1900hurricane]

Was just about to post the same thing.

[cycloneye]

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 112123
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (96W)

B. 11/2030Z

C. 7.9N

D. 128.6E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF LESSS THAN 1.0. MET
IS 1.0 AND PT IS LESS THAN 1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WHICH DO NOT
ALLOW ENDING A STORM AT NIGHT IN THE FIRST 24-HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...WHISNANT

[cycloneye]

JMA.

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 12 December 2017

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 12 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N8°40' (8.7°)
E130°30' (130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 13 December>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°00' (9.0°)
E131°00' (131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle

[1900hurricane]

ASCAT again got most of the circulation.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.7N 135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 193
NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 120101Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE BEING LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (5-
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH DECENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) WILL
SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT
TO 24-48 HOURS, BUT WILL ACCELERATE IN DEVELOPMENT BY TAU 72 AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]