Texas Winter 2017-2018

[wxman57]

I wouldn't trust any specifics in the long-range GFS. One thing that looks like a good bet is that some cold air will move southward down the Plains around Christmas. How cold the air will be is uncertain. Whether or not there will be any precipitation in the cold air is quite uncertain. You can start believing the GFS forecast by around next Friday (10 days from now). It's almost pointless analyzing the model runs that far out, as they're sure to have major changes over the next 10 days. I'll try to get Dallas some snow this time, though.

[orangeblood]

More and more confidence is building for a sustained cold period lasting well into the New Year...right on cue, the East QBO affect for Strat Warming events is unfolding

[weatherdude1108]

[Tireman4]

I wouldn't trust any specifics in the long-range GFS. One thing that looks like a good bet is that some cold air will move southward down the Plains around Christmas. How cold the air will be is uncertain. Whether or not there will be any precipitation in the cold air is quite uncertain. You can start believing the GFS forecast by around next Friday (10 days from now). It's almost pointless analyzing the model runs that far out, as they're sure to have major changes over the next 10 days. I'll try to get Dallas some snow this time, though.

But you said more snow for us dang it sir. Come on...sheesh.

[wxman57]

I wouldn't trust any specifics in the long-range GFS. One thing that looks like a good bet is that some cold air will move southward down the Plains around Christmas. How cold the air will be is uncertain. Whether or not there will be any precipitation in the cold air is quite uncertain. You can start believing the GFS forecast by around next Friday (10 days from now). It's almost pointless analyzing the model runs that far out, as they're sure to have major changes over the next 10 days. I'll try to get Dallas some snow this time, though.

But you said more snow for us dang it sir. Come on...sheesh.

You'll have to wait your turn. I may be able to get Houston some freezing rain and sleet with this event. We'll see.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't trust any specifics in the long-range GFS. One thing that looks like a good bet is that some cold air will move southward down the Plains around Christmas. How cold the air will be is uncertain. Whether or not there will be any precipitation in the cold air is quite uncertain. You can start believing the GFS forecast by around next Friday (10 days from now). It's almost pointless analyzing the model runs that far out, as they're sure to have major changes over the next 10 days. I'll try to get Dallas some snow this time, though.

Oh, I think most of us know that ... at least those of us who have been burned multiple times by the GFS during the winter season. My earlier comment was in reference to the increasing likelihood of cold weather for Christmas. You once counseled me many years ago to pay more attention to the projected 500mb flow pattern and the "coldness" of the projected source regions of the air. I still do that.

For a Heat Miser, you're not a bad fellow. You've taught many of us a lot. And yes I know that we will owe you Spring and Summer 2018 after you've delivered all of these goodies during Winter 2017-18. I'm sure you'll be making it nice and toasty.

[Tireman4]

I wouldn't trust any specifics in the long-range GFS. One thing that looks like a good bet is that some cold air will move southward down the Plains around Christmas. How cold the air will be is uncertain. Whether or not there will be any precipitation in the cold air is quite uncertain. You can start believing the GFS forecast by around next Friday (10 days from now). It's almost pointless analyzing the model runs that far out, as they're sure to have major changes over the next 10 days. I'll try to get Dallas some snow this time, though.

But you said more snow for us dang it sir. Come on...sheesh.

You'll have to wait your turn. I may be able to get Houston some freezing rain and sleet with this event. We'll see.

As long as we do not have a Summer 2011 and I will be ok sir.

[Ralph's Weather]

While we are enticed by the Christmas storm possibilities do not sleep on the winter storm potential for early next week. As I expected the GFS and Euro are both now lifting the SW low through Texas this timeframe.

Also maybe a flurry late this week over N TX? The shortwave is looking more and more potent late this week.

After these we can start looking at specifics for Christmas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

:eek:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_51.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... cus_52.png

oh my! I know....... waaaaay the heck out in fantasy land.... But if it verified, the end of the worlders will be out in force going into the new year. That would be beyond historic in some areas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

But you said more snow for us dang it sir. Come on...sheesh.

You'll have to wait your turn. I may be able to get Houston some freezing rain and sleet with this event. We'll see.

As long as we do not have a Summer 2011 and I will be ok sir.

I didn't mind that summer so much down here only because it was a dry heat vs the humidity we commonly have here on the coast. Evenings were actually enjoyable and I'm using that term loosely because it was still fricken hot. Yea the air was so dry it shredded an incoming tropical storm. All our local mets were stunned.

[Brent]

Very cold and stormy Christmas again on the gfs

I dont usually trust the gfs at this range but the consistency is amazing

That southeast ridge is almost as incredible

[Ntxw]

30s at DFW while arctic front passing panhandle and Oklahoma in single digits end of the run. Nearly -30s in Montana with 1050+ hp

[Ralph's Weather]

Very cold and stormy Christmas again on the gfs

I dont usually trust the gfs at this range but the consistency is amazing

That southeast ridge is almost as incredible

I do not recall ever seeing the 300+ GFS this consistent for this long, still hard to trust but the consistency makes you pay attention. Plus it makes sense with the expected pattern for this winter from pre-season so that adds additional credibility. Once we get within 240 hours and can really compare vs other models we will get more clarity.

[ronyan]

30s at DFW while arctic front passing panhandle and Oklahoma in single digits end of the run. Nearly -30s in Montana with 1050+ hp

-12F in Amarillo at long range.

[Cheyenne ridge]

I like it

30s at DFW while arctic front passing panhandle and Oklahoma in single digits end of the run. Nearly -30s in Montana with 1050+ hp

I like it a lot.

[orangeblood]

30s at DFW while arctic front passing panhandle and Oklahoma in single digits end of the run. Nearly -30s in Montana with 1050+ hp

MJO Phase 8 this time of year is the money slot for widespread winter across the lower 48 (and doesn't happen that often in December from the records I've looked at)...Models are going bananas right now. Lots of variables appear to be aligning if you're a winter weather enthusiast!!!

[orangeblood]

As Ralph has been eluding to, that system early next week looks interesting as well...temps are cold aloft but surface temps appear way too warm at this point. Canadian is going towards the GFS for late next week as well!!

[ronyan]

As Ralph has been eluding to, that system early next week looks interesting as well...temps are cold aloft but surface temps appear way too warm at this point. Canadian is going towards the GFS for late next week as well!!

Yeah it looks like the front is also moving too slowly through TX.

[gpsnowman]

Question for a knowledgeable one. In order to get a true McFarland Sig over Texas, do we need a stout southeast ridge?

[orangeblood]

As Ralph has been eluding to, that system early next week looks interesting as well...temps are cold aloft but surface temps appear way too warm at this point. Canadian is going towards the GFS for late next week as well!!

Yeah it looks like the front is also moving too slowly through TX.

I was referring to the S/W moving through early next week, the front propagation doesn't appear to be the problem with that one - it's there doesn't appear to be enough cold air around to produce much of anything. Now, the next front around Christmas weekend is a different story - yes, that front appears way too slow on the models