Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

[gboudx]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

Without looking at the model, my guess is because it’s bad at handling cold, dense air masses.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

Without looking at the model, my guess is because it’s bad at handling cold, dense air masses.

This. The upper air pattern doesn’t support the front movement at the end. That and the AO isn’t forecasted to be overly positive which could slow the front down if it were.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

Without looking at the model, my guess is because it’s bad at handling cold, dense air masses.

I havent looked either but if its in the rockies, the trough is likely west coast based. Allows alot of cool air to seep into the valleys in the Rockies. If the trough is a bit further east, it will allow the large HP's to essentially get stuck outside of the Rockies and slide down into the plains.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

Without looking at the model, my guess is because it’s bad at handling cold, dense air masses.

I havent looked either but if its in the rockies, the trough is likely west coast based. Allows alot of cool air to seep into the valleys in the Rockies. If the trough is a bit further east, it will allow the large HP's to essentially get stuck outside of the Rockies and slide down into the plains.

PNA is basically neutral, maybe slightly negative, so a West Coast trough doesn’t seem likely.

[Ntxw]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

The upper pattern is not a deep cold one. It is one that signifies shallow, dense air mass. Models handle things better when the atmosphere lines up vertically top to bottom, however that is not always the case. It sees westerly winds a loft and thinks the jet stream keeps the cold at bay, when really if cold enough, gravity and sliding down the slopes of the front range is much easier. This is why Wxman57 above emphasize wait to see how cold the air really is. If it's real cold, it will move, if it's so so then it won't. The cold isn't even there yet to really get a good handle.

Such patterns is how you get ice storms that catch up by surprise. The cold undercuts the overrunning moisture from the SW trough and it's 25 when the model thinks its 35.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone explain to me why on the GFS the cold is being locked up into the plains and Rockies and not making a push south into south and southeast TX?

The upper pattern is not a deep cold one. It is one that signifies shallow, dense air mass. Models handle things better when the atmosphere lines up vertically top to bottom, however that is not always the case. It sees westerly winds a loft and thinks the jet stream keeps the cold at bay, when really if cold enough, gravity and sliding down the slopes of the front range is much easier. This is why Wxman57 above emphasize wait to see how cold the air really is. If it's real cold, it will move, if it's so so then it won't. The cold isn't even there yet to really get a good handle.

Such patterns is how you get ice storms that catch up by surprise. The cold undercuts the overrunning moisture from the SW trough and it's 25 when the model thinks its 35.

Looking at the region the Alaskan ridge should tap and it’s currently -30s...

[gpsnowman]

Does the snow cover increase above us between now and Christmas? I would really dislike the cold arctic air to modify as it crashes south.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Does the snow cover increase above us between now and Christmas? I would really dislike the cold arctic air to modify as it crashes south.

Snow pack thru 240 as the front moves south

[sphelps8681]

How far south could this go? Not saying it will happen but just in case.

[Brent]

Does the snow cover increase above us between now and Christmas? I would really dislike the cold arctic air to modify as it crashes south.

if the GFS is right it should... looks like there'd be a decent snow along/behind the front but we are speaking about 10-12 days out

0z GFS blasts the front through DFW right around 240 hours(Friday December 22nd)... drops nearly 30 degrees

CMC has a sizable front too a little faster

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man, it drops the hammer a lot faster and colder.

[Brent]

DFW daytime temps in the 20s December 23rd

Highs below freezing to the beach on Christmas Eve!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

[Brent]

this run is ridiculous... ice down to Brownsville

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Houston stays below freezing from the 23rd to 28th... oh my heart be still!!!

[Texas Snow]

I seriously need to stop looking at the models for a good week. They are way too fascinating to be true.

[Texas Snow]

I seriously need to stop looking at the models for a good week. They are way too fascinating to be true.

But I won't

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Houston would get two ice storms in a matter of days