Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Rgv20]

Damn what a crazy 0zGFS run! That would be some long lasting cold

Meanwhile it looks like down here that Friday should be a cold rainy day with temperatures in the low 50s to upper 40s with total rainfall amounts of 1.5-2''

[gpsnowman]

The fam and I are supposed to head to Uncertain Texas for Christmas late on the 23rd returning on the 26th. I love and want some winter weather but thiis could put a serious dent in many peoples holiday plans.

[Brent]

The end of the Euro definitely has a major front through DFW... Highs well in the 70s next Thursday(December 21st) then temps steady in the low/mid 40s on Friday which is the end of the run. No extreme cold yet or precip, but it barely goes out to when the GFS/CMC had the front.

There's a Cutoff low over AZ/NM at the same time

So all three globals at 0z have a clear frontal passage around next Friday(December 22nd) which is likely the beginning of the real cold air coming down

[gpsnowman]

A front will pass Sunday night into Monday but temperatures will
warm a little each day through at least next Wednesday. The models
are showing another strong front arriving late next week, possibly
bringing arctic air to North and Central Texas. However, as to be
expected, there are differences in the upper air patterns between
the models late in the week. Based on raw model output (mostly
from the GFS), talk is already being generated about a possible
wintry mix around Christmas. As a reminder, it is much too early
to predict with confidence if any winter precipitation will occur
around the holiday. However, we will closely be watching this
potential in the models over the next 7-10 days and changes are
likely to occur.

JLDunn

From Nws Fort Worth morning discussion

[wxman57]

The end of the Euro definitely has a major front through DFW... Highs well in the 70s next Thursday(December 21st) then temps steady in the low/mid 40s on Friday which is the end of the run. No extreme cold yet or precip, but it barely goes out to when the GFS/CMC had the front.

There's a Cutoff low over AZ/NM at the same time

So all three globals at 0z have a clear frontal passage around next Friday(December 22nd) which is likely the beginning of the real cold air coming down

Euro does have a cold front in Texas at 240 hrs, but the 500mb flow is quite different from the GFS, and surface temps are about 20 degrees warmer. No freezing temps all the way up through Oklahoma. Upper 30s in the TX panhandle vs. 10-12 degrees in the GFS.

[bubba hotep]

5 day Avg to end 00z Euro EPS

[Ntxw]

The end of the Euro definitely has a major front through DFW... Highs well in the 70s next Thursday(December 21st) then temps steady in the low/mid 40s on Friday which is the end of the run. No extreme cold yet or precip, but it barely goes out to when the GFS/CMC had the front.

There's a Cutoff low over AZ/NM at the same time

So all three globals at 0z have a clear frontal passage around next Friday(December 22nd) which is likely the beginning of the real cold air coming down

Euro does have a cold front in Texas at 240 hrs, but the 500mb flow is quite different from the GFS, and surface temps are about 20 degrees warmer. No freezing temps all the way up through Oklahoma. Upper 30s in the TX panhandle vs. 10-12 degrees in the GFS.

No need to worry wxman57 about the Euro. Just creeping into it's range now and the EPS says it will convert shortly

Pretty good pattern setting up for multiple threats of ice and snow in Texas. Even before any cold there is a train of system after system the next week to week and a half (just models are dry but the 500mb storms are there). Then the hammer comes down Christmas week or so. Perfect timing.

Travelers should probably start to think about hazardous weather if you have plans.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

6z keeps the theme... that’s 14 model runs in a row and 15 of 17.

Keeps multiple rounds of wintry weather in the forecast. If the GFS nails this, I will never speak ill of it again.

[Ntxw]

And you don't really have to look in LaLaland.

Within 200 hours the big arctic high is descending western Canada.

[BigB0882]

Gosh, I hate to miss out on winter fun but if it is going to be as cold as the GFS says then I might end up preferring to be in Florida from the 21-30. I will be upset if I miss a big snow event but not super cold and especially not ice!

[wxman57]

Not perfect timing for me. If we do get a major ice storm (not snow) across Texas near Christmas, then I have to cancel our trip to see my sister in Baton Rouge Christmas weekend. It's still 10+ days out, so I suspect there will be changes in the model output over the next 7-10 days.

[Ntxw]

Not perfect timing for me. If we do get a major ice storm (not snow) across Texas near Christmas, then I have to cancel our trip to see my sister in Baton Rouge Christmas weekend. It's still 10+ days out, so I suspect there will be changes in the model output over the next 7-10 days.

Yeah not so fun for travelers.


It likely sits where the arctic front is. That's where the overrunning will likely take place. Impulses from the western trough may kick out in pieces and ride the baroclinic zone. Classic ice storm kind of pattern.

[gboudx]

Not perfect timing for me. If we do get a major ice storm (not snow) across Texas near Christmas, then I have to cancel our trip to see my sister in Baton Rouge Christmas weekend. It's still 10+ days out, so I suspect there will be changes in the model output over the next 7-10 days.

We always go home to New Orleans for Christmas. It seems most years, I've had to sweat the possibility of driving back in some form of frozen precip anywhere from Natchitoches to Shreveport to Dallas. The past 2 years have had no such concerns with way above normal temps. I guess I'll be watching carefully this year, even though we don't come back until the 27th. Whatever happens near Christmas should be melted off the roads by then, assuming no further wintry mischief closer to the 27th. I can drive in cold temps, but not cold temps with ice. My wife and I did that once in the late 90s before we had kids. Probably the dumbest thing I've ever done in my life.

On a separate topic, with all this model consistency, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift away from this as we get into the mid-term? It seems to be par for the course for the models to show one thing, lose it in the mid-term and then come back to it in the short-term.

[spencer817]

If you go back and look at the 0z GFS, one night the wind chills go to about 0 F, maybe even negatives.

[Portastorm]

What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.

[Ntxw]

On a separate topic, with all this model consistency, I wonder if we'll start to see a shift away from this as we get into the mid-term? It seems to be par for the course for the models to show one thing, lose it in the mid-term and then come back to it in the short-term.

You might get a run or two of models try to hold the air up in Kansas or Oklahoma. But that's about as drastic a change you might get since ENS clustering is quite impressive. It's not the surface details of wintry precip that we are concerned with, that will play out as long as there is an arctic front and is a matter of when and where. As long as the broad 500mb ridge is in Alaska, big changes likely won't happen in modelling world.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.

Champ is thirsty for more!

[vividchasers]

Pretty impressive models so far.

[EnnisTx]

What’s with the 0z and 6z GFS runs and their Day After Tomorrow look for Texas?!

Wow ... can’t recall such an extreme wintry look for our state from the models.

Porta,
How about posting some of those for the folks that don't know what everyone is talking about.

[Tireman4]

Shall we hoist the Bear Watch?



S000
FXUS64 KHGX 131014
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
414 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure is centered just to our west early this morning
and is bringing light/calm winds to our entire area. After a cold
start to the morning with some high clouds streaming across the area
from the west, look for temperatures to warm into the 60s and winds
to come back around to the south and southwest this afternoon as the
surface high moves off to the east. Tonight will be not as cold as
we await for the arrival/passage of our next cold front during the
day tomorrow. There will be no rain with the front, but some rain
might develop behind the boundary late Thursday through Friday with
the lowest chances near the coast (dry well inland) and the higher
chances offshore. Cooler temperatures can be expected behind the
front as high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. Eyes
then turn toward our southwest and west over the weekend as a storm
system organizes and moves across the area. Models differ on the
timing/strength of this system with some solutions keeping the best
lift/dynamics near and off the coast Saturday through Saturday night
while other solutions bring some impressively strong lift/dynamics
across parts of our area Saturday night through Sunday morning (see
SPC`s Day 4-8 Convective Outlook). Went ahead and raised weekend
rain chances a little bit more with this morning`s forecast package,
and we`ll probably end up needing to carry much higher POPs. At
this time, it looks like the first half of next week will be mostly
on the dry side with near normal temperatures. Some models are
showing a arctic cold/wintry mix moving into the state over the
holiday weekend. Model changes are likely, and we`ll be watching
to see how everything evolves. 42

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient weakens today and expect a continued decline in
winds/seas through Thurs. A cold from twill push off the coast Thurs
evening and northerly winds will gradually increase to around 25kt
after midnight into Friday morning. Small Craft Advisories will be
required. Look for areas of ran to develop behind the front as well.

Unsettled wx continues in the waters into the weekend. A quick,
strengthening onshore flow is expected early Sat. Elevated winds,
seas and increasing shower/storm coverage is expected in advance of
an approaching upper disturbance. (Can`t rule out some sea fog in
advance either). This disturbance should trek off to the east early
Sunday taking most of the precip with it and allowing a weak
training frontal boundary to make its way into the waters. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for the next 30+ hours. Just some cirrus streaming overhead. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist once again today with RH`s bottoming out
between 25-30% this afternoon. Winds speeds will be 5-15mph, so Red
Flag Warnings are not anticipated. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 41 63 37 58 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 63 44 65 41 57 / 0 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 60 53 67 47 57 / 0 10 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

42/47