Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

All I want for Christmas is 4 hours of heavy thunder sleet followed by a topping of 2 inches of snow.

That and Verlander granting me a night with Kate Upton.

I'll see what I can do about the sleet. You're on your own for the other. That's quite an 18Z GFS run for SE TX. Major freezing rain event (not snow) on Christmas Eve. If that actually happened, we'd be without power for weeks across Houston and much of Texas.

You’re a scholar and a gentleman!

[Cpv17]

According to the GFS, it looks like the heart of the cold will be sliding more ese out of Canada vs straight down the plains south. Great Lakes and Midwest look to take the brunt of the cold

[starsfan65]

According to the GFS, it looks like the heart of the cold will be sliding more ese out of Canada vs straight down the plains south. Great Lakes and Midwest look to take the brunt of the cold

i thought it was coming straight south.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Think he’s referring to the initial shot... it eventually lines up in the plains with the 2nd and 3rd fronts

[Brent]

the Christmas front is plenty cold Ice to the Gulf

The cold next week before that does go mostly east yeah

[orangeblood]

Safe to say the GFS Ensemble members are going all in for the Holidays....It's been awhile since I've seen them this aggressive, I think it was Dec 2013 to be exact

[Cpv17]

According to the GFS, it looks like the heart of the cold will be sliding more ese out of Canada vs straight down the plains south. Great Lakes and Midwest look to take the brunt of the cold

i thought it was coming straight south.

Heart of the cold remains well north and east of Texas.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS 5 day avg is shifted West vs 00z but that gets more precipitation into Texas. I would almost rather take my chances with a wetter look and hope to time up the cold.

[Ralph's Weather]

that snow ensemble map is insane.
I expect the coldest anomalies at 850mb to stay to our north. The surface temps will be plenty cold here though with 1050+mb surface highs to our north.

[starsfan65]

According to the GFS, it looks like the heart of the cold will be sliding more ese out of Canada vs straight down the plains south. Great Lakes and Midwest look to take the brunt of the cold

i thought it was coming straight south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_42.png
Heart of the cold remains well north and east of Texas.

You want enough cold air to get winter weather.

[JayDT]

Safe to say the GFS Ensemble members are going all in for the Holidays....It's been awhile since I've seen them this aggressive, I think it was Dec 2013 to be exact
http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2017 ... _tx_65.png

I would not mind this map at all.. Would be better for the highest totals to be right over the DFW area

[Cpv17]

i thought it was coming straight south.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_42.png
Heart of the cold remains well north and east of Texas.

You want enough cold air to get winter weather.

It’s cold enough for that, but nothing crazy cold. 20’s and 30’s is not crazy cold here.

[Brent]

if its too cold though it'd probably be dry

I'd rather have precip

It's gonna be plenty cold with the setup anyway

[starsfan65]

It’s cold enough for that, but nothing crazy cold. 20’s and 30’s is not crazy cold here.[/quote]I want the light and fluffy snow than the wet stuff.

[Cpv17]

if its too cold though it'd probably be dry

I'd rather have precip

You’re absolutely right. I’d much rather it be 30 degrees and snowing than 10 degrees and dry.

[starsfan65]

if its too cold though it'd probably be dry

I'd rather have precip

me too I want more cold air in the upper levels to get snow.

[Ntxw]

Safe to say the GFS Ensemble members are going all in for the Holidays....It's been awhile since I've seen them this aggressive, I think it was Dec 2013 to be exact

http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2017 ... _tx_65.png

I would not mind this map at all.. Would be better for the highest totals to be right over the DFW area

It's an ensembles mean. Pretty significant to have the means show something that's similar to the northern tier US where it is more common. It means many members have snow/ice etc etc.

[Ntxw]

The GFS is too progressive, The southeast ridge should be in play given Nina climo and tropical forcing imo

Pattern recognition says the "dagger" of cold down the plains

[Ntxw]

500mb CPC super-ensemble analog (ENS) 1983 as top analog



CPC is starting to bite. If past progressions are any guidance, the dark purples should be showing up pretty soon as it gets closer

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just caught up driving all day to SA and back. You guys need to reeeaaally stay calm with the precip maps. Heck, models couldnt get the last storm right till 36 hours out. Lets just be happy we see the pattern looking favorable at the time. Ive seen them disappear even at this stage so still a bit nervous.

You guys keep mentioning the energy near Hawaii being important, i agree. The 12Z seemed strange to me since the trough was weak but the high to its west was stronger in the W Pac. I thought that was strange.

The Euro seemed to have a strong W Pac high but the trough is weak, like the energy was split. I dont know, again, so far out. Almost too early to breakdown.