Texas Winter 2017-2018

[spencer817]

Winter Storm north and west of DFW at 216... cold air flooding in... this is next Friday Night

This run will be big on the winter storm, negative tilt trough coming out.

you called it sir

[Brent]

precip definitely NOT a problem on the 0z GFS lol, icy just NW of DFW barely next Friday Night into Saturday(December 23rd)

[wxman57]

0z GFS looks to be coming in much closer to the 12z Euro so far. Deep trough digging out west.

Compare the 500mb pattern by 12Z Sat, the 23rd. EC is way different from the GFS, particularly across the central U.S., where the EC has a high-amplitude ridge extending through Minnesota up into Canada.

[Ntxw]

You can see the cold air try to slow down with resistance from the SE ridge. It will probably just blast into the gulf anyway.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS looks to be coming in much closer to the 12z Euro so far. Deep trough digging out west.

Compare the 500mb pattern by 12Z Sat, the 23rd. EC is way different from the GFS, particularly across the central U.S., where the EC has a high-amplitude ridge extending through Minnesota up into Canada.

Yeah still some big differences between the 2 models. They are much closer than they were with their 12z runs though. Also generally agree on precip being around here when the colder air is arriving.

[Brent]

more cold air floods in Christmas Eve as the storm lifts out... 20s for highs in DFW

Highs in the single digits in Amarillo

Christmas Day highs in the teens just west of DFW

[Ntxw]

0z GFS looks to be coming in much closer to the 12z Euro so far. Deep trough digging out west.

Compare the 500mb pattern by 12Z Sat, the 23rd. EC is way different from the GFS, particularly across the central U.S., where the EC has a high-amplitude ridge extending through Minnesota up into Canada.

Yeah still some big differences between the 2 models. They are much closer than they were with their 12z runs though. Also generally agree on precip being around here when the colder air is arriving.

They are finding common ground that a major winter storm could kick out from the west as the cold air is on the move to lead way of the arctic air mass sometime early next weekend.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS is showing another risk of frozen precipitation across central Texas on Christmas Eve as the trough reloads across the west.

[Brent]

Major winter storm Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Day this run ice along the 35 corridor

then snow on the day after

[Snowman67]

How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

[Ntxw]

Major winter storm Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Day this run ice along the 35 corridor

then snow on the day after

Snow in the low 20s

[ThunderSleetDreams]

17 in a row and 18 of 20!

[missygirl810]

My daughter and grandson are going to Hearne the 18th and trying to come back to the Dallas area the 23rd. Pretty sure they will be delayed either way at this point lol.

[Cpv17]

How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

Central TX. Doesn’t make it to the Gulf Coast like on the 18z. Very cold in west TX. Not nearly as cold in the eastern part of the state.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS keeps reloading the trough across the west with very cold air across Texas through the end of December. Unreal cold spell this run.

[Ntxw]

How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

S-Central Texas and western/northern SE Texas.

Given nature of dense arctic air mass, I would not book that as gospel. The air could be much colder than modeled by OPs.

[Ntxw]

HIghs at DFW would struggle to get to 20. Almost 2011 redux.

100+ hours at or below freezing for the airport on the run

[Brent]

How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

Central TX. Doesn’t make it to the Gulf Coast like on the 18z. Very cold in west TX. Not nearly as cold in the eastern part of the state.

the southeast ridge is much more prominent this run

[Cpv17]

How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

S-Central Texas and western/northern SE Texas.

Given nature of dense arctic air mass, I would not book that as gospel. The air could be much colder than modeled by OPs.

I’m fairly confident the air will be cooler. Wouldn’t be surprised if DFW and Houston both have a white Christmas.

[Brent]

DFW close to single digits on the morning of December 27th