Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1501 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:57 pm

Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:How far south does it show freezing precipitation on this run?

Central TX. Doesn’t make it to the Gulf Coast like on the 18z. Very cold in west TX. Not nearly as cold in the eastern part of the state.


the southeast ridge is much more prominent this run


Yeah that ridge is going to be key in how far south and east this air goes I would imagine. DFW looks to be a safe bet. Houston, not so much.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1502 Postby Ntxw » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Cpv17 wrote: Central TX. Doesn’t make it to the Gulf Coast like on the 18z. Very cold in west TX. Not nearly as cold in the eastern part of the state.


the southeast ridge is much more prominent this run


Yeah that ridge is going to be key in how far south and east this air goes I would imagine. DFW looks to be a safe bet. Houston, not so much.


It will pass Houston, I'm fairly certain. Too far west for the cold air not to win. The question is the ejection of the western trough. For Houston, and more Dallas snow, you'd want a bit slower ejection and trough to go negative a little later.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1503 Postby Brent » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:59 pm

Wow the extreme cold just keeps going... three days in a row DFW is near single digits in the morning and struggling to get out of the teens for highs behind the storm after Christmas :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1504 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:02 am

Hell of a Rex block that run
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1505 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:07 am

Brent wrote:Wow the extreme cold just keeps going... three days in a row DFW is near single digits in the morning and struggling to get out of the teens for highs behind the storm after Christmas :froze:

Will be interesting to see what the Euro says in a couple hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1506 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:10 am

Wow... look at the MJO and the 8 hammer

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1507 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:24 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Wow... look at the MJO and the 8 hammer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif


So good to see the MJO cooperate. Hard to get everything aligned but things may be coming together.

It's going to start the end of next week. By Friday we should all be watching an Arctic front swing down. If the trough is indeed that strong, there will likely be a blizzard somewhere in the southern plains. Arctic fronts don't come down in the breath of a fan. Needless to say the severe option is on the table, trajectory is our heading more likely than not. 850mb temps to the north are well below -30C or more, sufficient for most major outbreaks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1508 Postby JayDT » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:29 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:Major winter storm Christmas Eve Night into Christmas Day this run ice along the 35 corridor

then snow on the day after


Snow in the low 20s

I really do hope this verifies lol. It would be PERFECT :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1509 Postby Cerlin » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:49 am

It's insane how many people have suddenly shown up in the last couple days because of these models. I'm not a usual poster but it's been insane how many lurkers have been compelled to post as a result of these exciting runs. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1510 Postby TexasSam » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:02 am

Hello all, I guess it's time for me to come out of the wood work again. I have been reading the increasing posts for the last 2 days. Looks like all of Texas could get hammered.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1511 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:21 am

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Wow... look at the MJO and the 8 hammer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif


I am a bit suspicious of that amp. The bias corrected and Euro EPS aren't nearly as enthusiastic.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1512 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:39 am

0z Euro much closer to the GFS at 168... trough digging in the west

Big trough in the west still at 216, low over AZ/NM, still warm for most, drastic cold is further NW than the GFS, looks like a more gradual cool off on the Euro

and at 240 it's raining near 50 degrees in Dallas. Looks like the real cold is starting to plunge down the Rockies, slower than the GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1513 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 2:59 am

Brent wrote:0z Euro much closer to the GFS at 168... trough digging in the west

Big trough in the west still at 216, low over AZ/NM, still warm for most, drastic cold is further NW than the GFS, looks like a more gradual cool off on the Euro

and at 240 it's raining near 50 degrees in Dallas. Looks like the real cold is starting to plunge down the Rockies, slower than the GFS

The Euro is late to the party, but it’s starting to catch up.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1514 Postby JDawg512 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:53 am

I sense rain coming in a couple of days. Glad that chances have improved.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1515 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:18 am

06Z GFS showing 3 to 9 inches of precip in the Arctic air between next Friday and the following week. It shows multiple inches of liquid over other areas of Texas. It has temps a bit warm though so i expect previous runs showing less precip are more likely to pan out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1516 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:19 am

I figured Gfs would start changing !!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1517 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:23 am

stormlover2013 wrote:I figured Gfs would start changing !!



It’s upper air pattern didn’t. As a matter of fact the 6z upper air pattern is More conducive to harsher temps but the output went 5-8 degrees warmer.

Regardless, that’s 18 in a row and 19 of 21
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1518 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:32 am

Even though I don't want to see an Ice storm, I do like the signs pointing towards cold air. Winter Break 2015 was hard for me due to it being warm in Texas and then having to go back to Ohio where is was cold and snowy, If we can get some 20s and teens for temps then there won't be much of a difference for me :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1519 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:36 am

I am all with the euro right now and a blend of cmc
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1520 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:48 am

Latest model runs would indicate another warm Christmas in the cards for SE Texas and South LA. Let's hope this changes after two years in a row in the 80's on Christmas day :grr: :roll:
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