Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

[Portastorm]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

[CaptinCrunch]

February of 2011

For DFW, I believe that was the longest stretch of sub-freezing temps since December '83. It also snowed about 4 inches while while temps hung in the teens, a rare occurrence indeed.

Most Consecutive Hours at or Below Freezing for DFW
295 hrs--- 7 am Dec 18 - 2 pm Dec 30, 1983 (La Nina)
211 hrs--- 3 pm Jan 15 - 10 am Jan 23, 1930 (N/A)
178 hrs--- 1 am Jan 23 - 11 am Jan 30, 1948 (N/A)
170 hrs--- 9 am Feb 1 - 11 am Feb 8, 1905 (N/A)
163 hrs--- 5 pm Jan 16 - 12 pm Jan 23, 1978 (Neutral)
158 hrs--- 12 am Jan 27 - 2 pm Feb 2, 1951 (El Nino)
139 hrs--- 5 pm Jan 3 - 12 pm Jan 9 1942 (N/A)
137 hrs--- 5 pm Jan 30 - 10 am Feb 5, 1996 (Neutral)

[ThunderSleetDreams]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

Coast to coast cold anomalies minus Florida and south Bama and Georgia

[bubba hotep]

12Z Euro is a beautiful set up assuming that low digs SW a bit more then ejects over Texas injecting some deeper cold and bringing precip with it.

That is nearly a dream setup for Texas winter weather lovers. However, the Euro has been cutoff happy beyond D5 the last few months. I'll remain very skeptical until we get inside D5.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

[quoteJoe Bastardi‏Verified account
@BigJoeBastardi
Follow Follow @BigJoeBastardi
More
GFS a fun run every 6 hours Latest temps Christmas eve and day and snow depth by 7 pm Christmas evening. Pattern to me has not changed Major cold Christmas week in plains fights east and some wild options on table. Non winter will turn around dramatically central/northern plains][/quote]

According the map he attached to the tweet, our friend PORTASTORM would piss off Lucy for a second time this winter season!

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS is plenty wet and cold for Texas in the long range, just need to get lucky on timing.

[Brent]

12z Euro EPS is plenty wet and cold for Texas in the long range, just need to get lucky on timing.

Heh, even a widespread rain would be a big deal given how dry its been

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

[sphelps8681]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

I would rather see 80 and sunning than 36 and raining (miserable). Had enough rain from Harvey.

[SoupBone]

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/eq18qb.jpg

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

I just reported your account to admins for hacking. Whoever this is, get off this man's account!

[sphelps8681]

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

I would rather see 80 and sunny than 36 and raining (miserable). Had enough rain from Harvey.

[Cheyenne ridge]

Here are the first 10 days of February 2011 for Dallas.
http://i66.tinypic.com/eq18qb.jpg

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

Have you been hacked?

lol right!!!!I have never in 6 years heard these words lol.I do recall in Feb 2011 while I still lived in Sugarland,before moving to Wyoming him uttering the words this one is gonna hurt.

[Tireman4]

:D

Ha! That doesn't look cold, to me. When I think of cold (1983, 1989) I think of single-digit temps in Houston with the high <32F for 5 straight days. Highs here only in the mid 20s. That's cold! And I love it cold, by the way.

Have you been hacked?

lol right!!!!I have never in 6 years heard these words lol.I do recall in Feb 2011 while I still lived in Sugarland,before moving to Wyoming him uttering the words this one is gonna hurt.

He did. That was when a cold front was moving through the Houston Metro area. We were already at 37-38 degrees. The front dropped into the upper 20's. That was interesting for him to admit it.

[Cpv17]

It’s looking to me right now that the core of the cold will go more towards central and west TX and the eastern half of the state will just get a glancing blow.

[wxman57]

@BigJoeBastardi -- GEFS and Canadian day 11-16.
I have no words

That must mean 80s and sunny for most of Texas.

I just looked at both of those. GFS predicts slightly below-normal temps in SE TX while the Canadian predicts normal temps in SE TX. Much of the country, though, below normal. Keep in mind that the models always are terrible at forecasting Arctic air this far out. Heck, they're not too good 48 hours out...

Here's the Canadian surface temperature anomaly:


Here's the GFS:

[Brent]

Long mention about Christmas in the FWD AFD

The big weather story is the forecast leading up to Christmas.
For several days we've been seeing indications of a long-wave
pattern shift across North America with virtually all of the
guidance showing a flip from an East Coast trough to either a
West Coast or Plains trough. The latter solutions certainly spell
colder temperatures for our region. Model guidance is clustered
around a strong frontal passage in about 1 week (Thursday night).
Upper level ridging across the Canadian Pacific coastline will
induce strong anti-cyclogenesis and tap into a pool of arctic air
and send it southward into the northern Plains. Just how much of
this Arctic air makes it into our region is uncertain and highly
dependent upon the exact configuration of upper level pattern and
how it evolves.

Over the past several days we've seen wild run to run variations
of the upper level pattern so it is much too early to say with
confidence just how cold it will get or whether there is a threat
of wintry precipitation. A stronger and slower evolving trough
like what the ECMWF has been showing for several runs means a more
shallow and modified cold airmass will succeed the front for the
22nd and 23rd. While a solution like the GFS which quickly digs
the upper trough into the Desert SW would bring in a very shallow
but arctic airmass right behind the front. Both the GFS and ECMWF
forecasts raise our concern for wintry precipitation. The GFS
continues to indicate a risk of freezing rain on the 23rd and the
ECMWF is now indicating mixed precip on the 24th and 25th.
Obviously those forecasts are 8-10 days out and we would be
shocked to see a perfect forecast from either model. However the
verifying forecast could be in that ballpark, or it could look
like the Canadian and most of the ensembles means which are much
faster and farther east with the upper level trough. This would
bring a deep and very cold airmass into the region with clear
skies and no chance of precip.

In summary, the key points:
1) Confidence in colder weather arriving in about 1 week is high.

2) There is tremendous uncertainty regarding the post-frontal
precipitation potential.

3) As always, more confidence will come with subsequent
forecast data. The sooner all computer models settle on a
solution the sooner we can provide more difinitive forecast
guidance. At this time, model spread remains MUCH too high to
"sound the alarm" for a winter event.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Very good explanation

[ThunderSleetDreams]

One thing that has stayed very consistent on the GFS and is within 5 days (now) is the temps in our source region... widespread -20s to -30s

[Brent]

Winter storm breaking out on the 18z GFS at 198 hours(next Friday Night) along and west of 35 corridor

Major ice storm at 204 DFW just NW of Austin