Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man it really digs down into Baja

[South Texas Storms]

Looks like this run is gonna show lots of ice in DFW.

[Brent]

This run is nasty... long duration. Major ice storm next Saturday

[Brent]

and its still an ice storm on Christmas Eve Though DFW warms a little closer to freezing

Precip ends Christmas morning and DFW Is in the 20s Christmas Day in the afternoon

[Cpv17]

The air modifies quite a bit the further south and east it gets. Stays above freezing in southeast TX pretty much the whole time.

[Brent]

another winter storm at 372 hours, ice storm in South Texas. Austin/San Antonio, north side of Houston. An incredible 1049 mb high is over Oklahoma

[South Texas Storms]

another winter storm at 372 hours, ice storm in South Texas. An incredible 1049 mb high is over Oklahoma

Yep remains quite cold through the end of the year. We could see a long period where temperatures are well below normal across much of Texas.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Anyone chuckle at the 1047 High entering Texas at the end?

[Brent]

1 to 2 inches of freezing rain for DFW down to Austin on the Christmas storm this run

[Ralph's Weather]

This run is great for precip as it breaks tbe sw low off into a cut off that just sits and spins. The source region never develops a large pool of cold air, but the extereme -EPO makes the most of it the available small pool. If the SW low stays attached to the main trough then the cold would be more impressive as north central Canada is where the large cold pool is.

[Stormcenter]

Too early still to get excited. IMO

[Cpv17]

This run is great for precip as it breaks tbe sw low off into a cut off that just sits and spins. The source region never develops a large pool of cold air, but the extereme -EPO makes the most of it the available small pool. If the SW low stays attached to the main trough then the cold would be more impressive as north central Canada is where the large cold pool is.

The GFS has a warm bias in the short to mid range. It handles temps better in the longer range with these artic blasts imo. The temps that it’s showing now in the mid range will likely be 5 to 10 degrees colder.

[Brent]

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Too early still to get excited. IMO

Agree, but the trend and pattern have been there and aren’t budging. That’s something like 20 or 21 runs in a row showing this pattern.

Precip map is just for enjoyment purposes until we get to Tuesday.

[JayDT]

Well this was one heck of a GFS run... Wow

[ThunderSleetDreams]

That’s certainly one way to do it ...

[orangeblood]

This run is great for precip as it breaks tbe sw low off into a cut off that just sits and spins. The source region never develops a large pool of cold air, but the extereme -EPO makes the most of it the available small pool. If the SW low stays attached to the main trough then the cold would be more impressive as north central Canada is where the large cold pool is.

The source region is plenty cold enough as it originates in the Arctic Circle. Now, it's not necessarily "cold" for that north latitude but with little modification from snow cover and coldest time period of the year, it's cold enough for plenty of frozen precip at this latitude. The extreme cold is definitely on the table towards the end of the year, the analogs continue to show this potential

[Brent]

DFW almost stays below freezing the entire Christmas week

[wxman57]

I wouldn't wish that 18Z GFS ice storm on my worst enemy.

[Lagreeneyes03]

What does this mean for any severe weather chances pre-cold front?