Texas Winter 2017-2018

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TexasF6
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1661 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:20 pm

Anyone, oohhhh, notice the BLIZZARD on top of AUSTIN and nearby AUSTIN two (GFS) runs in a row now? I know its too early, but something is afoot this evening. Thoughts? Is it ice? I hope not. Porta? Could it be possible? WxMan57? I will admit the FD totals scare me in Central Texas on the last few runs as well.... :cold: :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1662 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:34 pm

TexasF6 wrote:Anyone, oohhhh, notice the BLIZZARD on top of AUSTIN and nearby AUSTIN two (GFS) runs in a row now? I know its too early, but something is afoot this evening. Thoughts? Is it ice? I hope not. Porta? Could it be possible? WxMan57? I will admit the FD totals scare me in Central Texas on the last few runs as well.... :cold: :cold: :froze:

The GFS is showing almost all ice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1663 Postby TexasF6 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:35 pm

I looked at the snow depth measure & the FD run as well. The ice is frightful....
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1664 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:36 pm

TexasF6 wrote:I looked at the snow depth measure & the FD run as well. The ice is frightful....

It sure is scary to think what that would do to the state if it were to play our that way.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1665 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:38 pm

GFS is running. I noticed the 18z GEFS cluster were more intense on the -EPO block. Curious to see if the 0z GFS goes that way.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1666 Postby spencer817 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:40 pm

I cant even imagine DFW with 1-2 inches of ice, some of our blockbuster events were 0.25-0.5...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1667 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:50 pm

I’m curious which model gets the source region right. Canadian has widespread -30s in NW Canada while the GFS has the -30s more in West-Central Canada and -10s and spotty -20s in far NW Canada
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1668 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:59 pm

There hasn't been much coverage, but near the Sea of Okhotsk bombogenesis in a few days. Kickstarts the pieces to tank the EPO. Really in a sense, it isn't that much different than Nuri but a little more west.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1669 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:23 pm

CMC has the Christmas storm but looks to be a cold rain through 240 hours

GFS just drove the front past the coast Friday morning. No evidence of the storm yet Friday Night.
Last edited by Brent on Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1670 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:26 pm

GFS is positive tilt with the trough next Friday/Sat, so less if any precip this run
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1671 Postby spencer817 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:26 pm

Who knows, reality might be coming in, the cold doesnt really look that cold this run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1672 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:27 pm

GFS definitely warmer overall
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1673 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:28 pm

0z GFS is backing off on the cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1674 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:28 pm

I wonder if this is the "lose the cold" GFS phase :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1675 Postby spencer817 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:29 pm

I cant say I'm surprised considering how many times we've gotten trolled w cold before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1676 Postby spencer817 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:29 pm

spencer817 wrote:I cant say I'm surprised considering how many times we've gotten trolled w cold before.

But it's one run, not a trend.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1677 Postby Ntxw » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:30 pm

Brent wrote:I wonder if this is the "lose the cold" GFS phase :lol:


I don't think so. Its the GFS wanting to progress the trough. 1048mb high up in NW Can after the trough swings. It's been meandering back and forth on this every few runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1678 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:31 pm

spencer817 wrote:
spencer817 wrote:I cant say I'm surprised considering how many times we've gotten trolled w cold before.

But it's one run, not a trend.


it also has done this before only to bring it back
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1679 Postby Brent » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:32 pm

lol temps above normal in Kansas at 210
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#1680 Postby starsfan65 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:33 pm

Brent wrote:lol temps above normal in Kansas at 210

I hope this is a bad run.
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