Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z very similar on timing and strength of the front, as well as placement of precip when compared to 06z, maybe some consistency coming soon.

Big ice storm developing w of DFW hour 180.

Has the same theme of "too warm in DFW at first" that 06z had, then 06z brought the frozen precip later on...2 runs in a row, interesting...

Models are always too warm with these fronts...

[MississippiWx]

The ECMWF is usually more trustworthy in MJO-world. Hopefully, the trend towards the circle of death doesn't continue. Like you said, it may be trending there due to climo.

Edit: Just look how it basically hits a wall in Phase 8 and goes to the circle of death. Kind of screams climo to me..."this isn't supposed to be this strong in this phase this time of year. I better kill it off."

What does the circle of death refer to?

The circle of death refers to the inner circle on the MJO chart bubba posted. If the lines come into the middle that means the MJO is weak or non-existent.

[spencer817]

Big ice storm developing w of DFW hour 180.

Has the same theme of "too warm in DFW at first" that 06z had, then 06z brought the frozen precip later on...2 runs in a row, interesting...

Models are always too warm with these fronts...

True, hour 216 frz precip moves its way into dfw

[Brent]

Ice Storm in DFW Christmas Eve

[Ntxw]

Ice Storm in DFW Christmas Eve

Temps aloft looks colder than previous runs, sleet and snow

[MississippiWx]

500mb at 222 hours on the GFS makes little sense. Looks like a +PNA pattern with a strong SE Ridge.

[Brent]

CMC has snow and ice just NW of DFW Christmas Morning

[stormlover2013]

gfs keeps this away setx thank goodness.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

gfs keeps this away setx thank goodness.

As Mississippi stated, you can discard this operational run... the 500 mb pattern makes no sense past 200 hours.

[spencer817]

gfs keeps this away setx thank goodness.

As Mississippi stated, you can discard this operational run... the 500 mb pattern makes no sense past 200 hours.

I was confused as to why the temps were hovering around freezing for so long lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL, where to begin...

[MississippiWx]

gfs keeps this away setx thank goodness.

As Mississippi stated, you can discard this operational run... the 500 mb pattern makes no sense past 200 hours.

Yeah, the highly amplified pattern with such a strong +PNA on this run should have a very deep trough in the eastern half of the country. That pattern is not likely. Strong -EPO ridge is likely with a deep trough Western half fighting against stubborn SE ridge.

[Ntxw]

LOL, where to begin...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_38.png

That is actually what the Euro has been doing.

[wxman22]

Yes i wouldn't buy into those temps on the Gfs the freezing line never leaves the i-35 corridor even once any potental warm nosing ends as the precip ends. I find it hard to belive with such a strong front.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

LOL, where to begin...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_30.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _us_38.png

That is actually what the Euro has been doing.

I haven't seen the Euro do what the GFS is doing past 200 hours.

Edited*** Nevermind, I see the Euro Operational and its 240 frame. Regardless, I don't see this situation playing out. I would side with the ensembles.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville Morning Discussion......small tidbit for the forecast near Christmas.

Beyond the end of the official forecast period, long range model
guidance suggests another frontal passage and overrunning
precipitation event for the weekend before Christmas. Stay tuned

[texas1836]

I know this doesn't have to do with Texas, but could you imagine this happening in Texas?!?!?!

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather ... -per-hour/

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I know this doesn't have to do with Texas, but could you imagine this happening in Texas?!?!?!

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather ... -per-hour/

I would be in Heaven.

[orangeblood]

GFS is becoming much more bullish on ground zero developing across Central Texas next weekend into Christmas. There are some wild members on this run ...if ENS Members are underestimating cold push, this battleground could be even further South, maybe all the way to the Coast

Absolutely incredible to see a ENS MEAN map across Texas like this

[spencer817]

I still think DFW will see some if this event were to happen. 3 of those ensembles show close to 2 ft equivalent for DFW, thats just crazy.