Thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- terstorm1012
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1314
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Millersburg, PA
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.
IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.
IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.
4 likes
my posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just my opinion (to which I welcome challenges!) and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
terstorm1012 wrote:While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.
IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.
It didn't have a global effect, since 1992 was hyperactive in the Pacific, even though it was quiet in the Atlantic (but even a quiet season can be catastrophic - Andrew, anyone?).
1 likes
- terstorm1012
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1314
- Age: 42
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Millersburg, PA
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
CrazyC83 wrote:terstorm1012 wrote:While I think it's much too early to prognosticate on next year's season---I'd keep an eye on Mt. Agung on Bali.
IF Agung suffers a Pinatubo-style (or bigger) eruption, that could make next summer interesting around the world.
It didn't have a global effect, since 1992 was hyperactive in the Pacific, even though it was quiet in the Atlantic (but even a quiet season can be catastrophic - Andrew, anyone?).
I meant more the weather effect---it did cool the earth by about a degree. also Cerro Hudson in Chile exploded at roughly the same time too in an equally large eruption----there are a few other big volcanoes rumbling in the tropics right now, along with a couple in Iceland. It is worth looking at.
2 likes
- gigabite
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 916
- Age: 71
- Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 4:09 pm
- Location: Naples, Florida
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
New Moon Analog 2017 Review
The hurricane season analog for 2018 is 1999. My final guess is 16/8/5 final
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This year this analog based guess hit at 88%/80%/83%. The 9-year trend is about 91%/63%/47%.
The standard deviation in the difference between my guess and the end of season
numbers for the 9 years is 6 for tropical storms, and for the last 5 years it is 4.
The analog year is the New Moon sub point that is closest to the test year sub point.
The sub point for 2018 is very close to where it was for 2017. The assumption is that
hurricanes are an object intensified by atmospheric eddies following the lunar sub-point,
and that the New Moon Path for similar years is similar. There are no climate or weather
values in the assumption. As global atmospheric water vapor varies so does the number,
and intensity of storms.
The hurricane season analog for 2018 is 1999. My final guess is 16/8/5 final
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This year this analog based guess hit at 88%/80%/83%. The 9-year trend is about 91%/63%/47%.
The standard deviation in the difference between my guess and the end of season
numbers for the 9 years is 6 for tropical storms, and for the last 5 years it is 4.
The analog year is the New Moon sub point that is closest to the test year sub point.
The sub point for 2018 is very close to where it was for 2017. The assumption is that
hurricanes are an object intensified by atmospheric eddies following the lunar sub-point,
and that the New Moon Path for similar years is similar. There are no climate or weather
values in the assumption. As global atmospheric water vapor varies so does the number,
and intensity of storms.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/938549157295304704
Note that the AMO index in November '17 has actually increased compared to the previous month, October—the first such occurrence on this chart, which goes back to January '14. This is the first time since at least 2013 that we have seen the AMO go up as we head into the early winter months. Since the NAO is going negative over the upcoming week, the tropical Atlantic should remain warm or even warm up further, as trade winds are likely to slacken. Waters have already warmed up over the past several days, according to NESDIS SST data. Interestingly, the last times the AMO was at +0.4 or greater were in August 2016 and from August–October 2014, which makes the recent increase even more notable.
Note that the AMO index in November '17 has actually increased compared to the previous month, October—the first such occurrence on this chart, which goes back to January '14. This is the first time since at least 2013 that we have seen the AMO go up as we head into the early winter months. Since the NAO is going negative over the upcoming week, the tropical Atlantic should remain warm or even warm up further, as trade winds are likely to slacken. Waters have already warmed up over the past several days, according to NESDIS SST data. Interestingly, the last times the AMO was at +0.4 or greater were in August 2016 and from August–October 2014, which makes the recent increase even more notable.
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
If I were to make an early prediction right now, with all the data we have:
Named storms: 15 to 21
Hurricanes: 9 to 13
Major hurricanes: 4 to 8
ACE: 145 to 225
Named storms: 15 to 21
Hurricanes: 9 to 13
Major hurricanes: 4 to 8
ACE: 145 to 225
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html
Let's see how well the tropical Atlantic will retain its warmth over the next week, as the NAO trends to the positive, meaning stronger trades and higher sea-level pressure. I would expect the +AMO value to drop a bit, owing to stronger westerlies near Greenland. Those conditions would tend to induce a cooling of SSTs over the tropical Atlantic basin, in conjunction with the recent fall in SSTs over the far North Atlantic. It is easy to conclude the +AMO is strong on the basis of a few weeks' suppressed (negative) NAO and warmer tropical-Atlantic SSTs (slackened trade winds). On the other hand, a +NAO in early winter is a good test of the subsurface conditions in the far North Atlantic and could prove just how resilient and stout the +AMO really is, if indeed it is still in place.
1 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Phil Klotzbach just issued his preliminary outlook. Basically, a 60% chance of an above-normal season in 2018. I agree.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf
2 likes
- NotSparta
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 1660
- Age: 22
- Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
- Location: Naples, FL
- Contact:
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
wxman57 wrote:Phil Klotzbach just issued his preliminary outlook. Basically, a 60% chance of an above-normal season in 2018. I agree.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2017/12/2017-12.pdf
Imo, it's already becoming clear that next season has a good chance of being active, if there aren't major changes. The question is how much so
0 likes
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33399
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
I think there will be another "quality" type season in 2018 at this rate - nothing exceptional in terms of named storms, but the numbers of hurricanes and majors far above normal, which racks up ACE. While 17 named storms is definitely above normal, it is not exceptional (normal seems to be about 14 adjusted for reanalysis and modern technology).
1 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
If I had to make an extremely early guess on the numbers and ACE for next season I'd go with 16/8/4 and an ACE of 150-175 units. The same final numbers I went with for the 2017 season too back in late-May. Of course there is PLENTY of room and time for major adjustments up or down. What really concerns me as stated before is another 2004/2005 high impact combo season shaping up with this season being just as bad if not worse in terms of land impacts when compared to 2017.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Atlantic hurricane forecast 2018
December 16 2017
Looking at all the factors here are what could shape the hurricane season
Positives
A negative pdo has started to show up which could keep the Pacific from heating up in the MDR leading to a lower shear environment than even 2017 in the Caribbean and similar conditions as this year in the rest of the Atlantic
A La Niña seems to be happening right now with forecasts models showing -neutral to weak La Niña by summer which could lead to lower shear than 2017 which is a scary thought
The AMO seems to want to stay really positive which is another thing that’s scary as that would mean possibly conditions in the MDR similar to this year
All other factors we won’t know until spring or summer but based on what I’m seeing it could be quite ugly for landfalls and here are my numbers which could be adjusted up or down depending on how the factors come together
23/15/7 ace 270
As always I am making an educated guess and could be wrong
December 16 2017
Looking at all the factors here are what could shape the hurricane season
Positives
A negative pdo has started to show up which could keep the Pacific from heating up in the MDR leading to a lower shear environment than even 2017 in the Caribbean and similar conditions as this year in the rest of the Atlantic
A La Niña seems to be happening right now with forecasts models showing -neutral to weak La Niña by summer which could lead to lower shear than 2017 which is a scary thought
The AMO seems to want to stay really positive which is another thing that’s scary as that would mean possibly conditions in the MDR similar to this year
All other factors we won’t know until spring or summer but based on what I’m seeing it could be quite ugly for landfalls and here are my numbers which could be adjusted up or down depending on how the factors come together
23/15/7 ace 270
As always I am making an educated guess and could be wrong
0 likes
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricaneman wrote:Atlantic hurricane forecast 2018
December 16 2017
Looking at all the factors here are what could shape the hurricane season
Positives
A negative pdo has started to show up which could keep the Pacific from heating up in the MDR leading to a lower shear environment than even 2017 in the Caribbean and similar conditions as this year in the rest of the Atlantic
A La Niña seems to be happening right now with forecasts models showing -neutral to weak La Niña by summer which could lead to lower shear than 2017 which is a scary thought
The AMO seems to want to stay really positive which is another thing that’s scary as that would mean possibly conditions in the MDR similar to this year
All other factors we won’t know until spring or summer but based on what I’m seeing it could be quite ugly for landfalls and here are my numbers which could be adjusted up or down depending on how the factors come together
23/15/7 ace 270
As always I am making an educated guess and could be wrong
THOSE would be some pretty prolific numbers indeed
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
lets tap the brakes a bit
no cue at all what ENSO will be next year. Anyone who says we do is selling beach front property in Arizona. Models have shown ZERO skill until about June
It is also going to be quite hard to have the tropical Atlantic more favorable than last year. Afterall, the tropical Atlantic may have been the most favorable ever in recorded history last year. 2 cat 5's striking the Leeward Islands in 15 days when the previous cat 5 may have been as far back as 1781?
Now, I could see the Gulf and western Caribbean more favorable. That would be a possibility, same with the subtropical western Atlantic. Those areas actually underperformed a bit last year, especially the western Caribbean
no cue at all what ENSO will be next year. Anyone who says we do is selling beach front property in Arizona. Models have shown ZERO skill until about June
It is also going to be quite hard to have the tropical Atlantic more favorable than last year. Afterall, the tropical Atlantic may have been the most favorable ever in recorded history last year. 2 cat 5's striking the Leeward Islands in 15 days when the previous cat 5 may have been as far back as 1781?
Now, I could see the Gulf and western Caribbean more favorable. That would be a possibility, same with the subtropical western Atlantic. Those areas actually underperformed a bit last year, especially the western Caribbean
5 likes
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Are you referring to San Calixto, which was in October 1780? If not, then I'm not sure which system you are referring to from 1781.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Alyono wrote:lets tap the brakes a bit
no cue at all what ENSO will be next year. Anyone who says we do is selling beach front property in Arizona. Models have shown ZERO skill until about June
It is also going to be quite hard to have the tropical Atlantic more favorable than last year. Afterall, the tropical Atlantic may have been the most favorable ever in recorded history last year. 2 cat 5's striking the Leeward Islands in 15 days when the previous cat 5 may have been as far back as 1781?
Now, I could see the Gulf and western Caribbean more favorable. That would be a possibility, same with the subtropical western Atlantic. Those areas actually underperformed a bit last year, especially the western Caribbean
I agree it's not likely the MDR will perform to the level it did in 2017, particularly September (July and August were not even very favorable in the MDR). Two C5s in the MDR is rare, and possibly even unprecedented, especially after the lack of many MDR hurricanes from 2012-16. If El Niño does not form by next summer then I think we could see a more active Caribbean than 2017 (it was quite unusual to see no hurricanes in the Western Caribbean in a year like this). It is still very early so we are still a long way off from determining what sort of season we will have in 2018. I am not going to issue numbers at this extended range but I am going to take an educated guess on the probabilities of each activity level:
Above normal season 60%
Near normal season 20%
Below normal season 20%
I see some people are already speculating another hyperactive season in 2018. Even though long range indicators look quite favorable for next season, I still think it's too early for me to think that we will see a season as active as or more active than this year.
1 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
1900hurricane wrote:Are you referring to San Calixto, which was in October 1780? If not, then I'm not sure which system you are referring to from 1781.
yeah, 1780
1 likes
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
I've been hearing around that next season could be a strong follow-up to 2017, similar to how the 2005 season did after the 2004 season. 1995-1996 and 1998-1999 are other good examples of this phenomenon, basically hurricanes tend to come in bunches and two back-to-back active seasons is a fairly common occurrence.
Based on this, it will be likelier than normal for 2018 to be very active on the heels of 2017. However, there is an outside chance that the active duo was 2016-2017 instead, and this would make the chances go down for 2018 a bit maybe to "normal". We'll see...
Based on this, it will be likelier than normal for 2018 to be very active on the heels of 2017. However, there is an outside chance that the active duo was 2016-2017 instead, and this would make the chances go down for 2018 a bit maybe to "normal". We'll see...
2 likes
Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
My numbers are based on current conditions plus model predictions but do think that I will probably adjust down on later forecasts, I don’t see any reason to go up and if indeed an El Niño pops it could be a significant reduction
0 likes
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: Very early thoughts on the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season
Hurricaneman wrote:My numbers are based on current conditions plus model predictions but do think that I will probably adjust down on later forecasts, I don’t see any reason to go up and if indeed an El Niño pops it could be a significant reduction
There's also a possibility that if El Niño develops we could see a season not far from average (like 1979 and 2002) or even above average if we somehow got a Modoki El Niño. Chances of a super El Niño like 1997-98 or 2015-16 seem very unlikely, though.
0 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, cheezyWXguy, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricane2022, JaviT, Pas_Bon, SFLcane and 44 guests