Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JDawg512]

Ha! This GFS run has 2.5" of freezing rain around Austin. I don't think Portastorm would like that. I wouldn't. Hopefully, it's wrong.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=zr_acc&rh=2017121600&fh=204&r=us_sc&dpdt=

I for one would not like it. I love rain as long as it stays liquid. Looking forward to tomorrow!

[Ntxw]

Ok, dumb question, but going to ask anyway, is Hunt Co considered North TX or Northeast Tx, or Central TX? I have heard all three for my area lol

Hunt Co is a part of the DFW CSA so North Texas but north and northeast Texas is an interchangeable term at times. Since technically the area that is "north" Tx is also in the northeastern chunk of the state. But when we say northeast Texas we usually mean an area from Tyler to Texarkana

[Rgv20]

Pattern recognition screams Cold Weather for all of Texas! Now as for details well we have to wait on that....


0zGFS Ensemble Mean 500mb Anomalies forecast for next Saturday


forecast for Christmas morning

[Brent]

alright I made some notes from the 12z Euro when the 13" of snow fell so I'm ready for the play by play to compare around 12:30

[rolldamntoad]

Just to preface this, I am by no means a meteorologist, just enjoy the weather. I’m in San Antonio - looks like it’s set up to be smack dab in the middle of an ice storm. Snow ok, ice, bye bye!

If this keeps going the way it's going, we're gonna have to have a serious conversation with my in-laws about possibly cancelling our trip to San Antonio. It's not so much getting down there that I am worried about—I don't want to get stuck anywhere.

[missygirl810]

Ok, dumb question, but going to ask anyway, is Hunt Co considered North TX or Northeast Tx, or Central TX? I have heard all three for my area lol

Hunt Co is a part of the DFW CSA so North Texas but north and northeast Texas is an interchangeable term at times. Since technically the area that is "north" Tx is also in the northeastern chunk of the state. But when we say northeast Texas we usually mean an area from Tyler to Texarkana

Got ya!!! Thanks!!!

[Brent]

Euro has another decent rain Tuesday, curious to see how that goes. GFS is mostly to the SE

[Brent]

144 hours Euro looks like we're setting up for a big storm again

[Texas Snow]

144 hours Euro looks like we're setting up for a big storm again

Well crap, just when I caught up on the thread (late Star Wars showing) now the Euro is running. Guess I’m gonna have to stay up a little later, again.

[Brent]

a little bit of very cold rain Friday in DFW, temps in the 30s all day

Also a little cold rain in Austin Friday, no ice yet

The snowy time on the 12z Euro was mostly Saturday Night into Sunday

[SnowintheFalls]

144 hours Euro looks like we're setting up for a big storm again

Yes it does and it even looks like it includes us up by the river in on the snow this run.

[South Texas Storms]

Much less precip this run on the Euro. Think the trough is too far east.

[Brent]

Euro is much drier Saturday than last run, looking at the 500 mb chart, system seems to be moving faster to the east?

[Brent]

yeah I dunno if there's even gonna be a real storm this run, it started promising then moved too fast

[Cpv17]

yeah I dunno if there's even gonna be a real storm this run, it started promising then moved too fast

Less of a SE ridge so it advances to the east more quickly or what?

[Brent]

yeah I dunno if there's even gonna be a real storm this run, it started promising then moved too fast

Less of a SE ridge so it advances to the east more quickly or what?

there's just flat out no storm at 192, just a trough, the SE ridge may be a tad weaker

no snow at all this run or anything else really

its not even really that cold, DFW barely touches 32 the morning of Christmas Eve

bit colder Christmas morning but dry

[Cpv17]

yeah I dunno if there's even gonna be a real storm this run, it started promising then moved too fast

Less of a SE ridge so it advances to the east more quickly or what?

there's just flat out no storm at 192, just a trough, the SE ridge may be a tad weaker

no snow at all this run or anything else really

its not even really that cold, DFW barely touches 32 the morning of Christmas Eve

Long ways to go! It’ll change back again to colder and wetter again most likely at some point.

[TwisterFanatic]

Gotta love the winter precip flip flops. Gonna have about 4 more days of that.

[cheezyWXguy]

yeah I dunno if there's even gonna be a real storm this run, it started promising then moved too fast

Less of a SE ridge so it advances to the east more quickly or what?

there's just flat out no storm at 192, just a trough, the SE ridge may be a tad weaker

no snow at all this run or anything else really

its not even really that cold, DFW barely touches 32 the morning of Christmas Eve

It seems off to me. That bowling ball of a low seems to completely shear out after hour 144, and it just overall seems that the trough is too far east. The majority of the runs in the past seemed to have that low dropping south of California before it swings east, and given the strength of the SE US high (although it does appear slightly weaker this run), the trough seems to be too quick to pull out.

[Cpv17]

Just about all guidance is pointing towards a wetter solution right now so I think I’m gonna stick to that till guidance backs off it. One operational run of a model shouldn’t change anything. Even if it’s the Euro.