Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Portastorm]

About a foot of snow for Abilene (includes sleet), wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow at DFW on Christmas eve. No ice storm in S Texas this run

12z GFS cuts the difference in terms of temps for south central Texas. It's not as cold for the Christmas Eve ice storm as the 0z run was but it's also not as warm as the 6z was. Has temps in the upper 30s and a cold, cold rain for Austin. I'd be ok with that.

[Ntxw]

It seriously boggles my mind as to why it avoids DFW on this run and many others.

12z GFS is a pretty close run for DFW, it's all a matter of temps as the precip shield is still fairly robust

Yeah, we all know the models struggle with surface temps with these fronts. It’ll also be interesting to see if they trend colder as we get closer. 2-3 days ago, the GFS was showing some very cold temps. The good news (or bad depending on ice) is that precip seems more likely.

We can hash that out with the HI RES come Wednesday when we see the air move. There are interactions upstream that varies on different runs. Heck the Canadian sends another big storm right behind it (where did that come from?)

[DonWrk]

Almost 48 hours straight of frozen precip in some areas. Incredible.

[bubba hotep]

I know everyone is focusing on the upcoming potential for winter weather in Texas but I can't help but be pleased by the 00z Euro EPS for the New Year. WCAN is reloading with cold and it looks like we could see another dump heading into the 1st of the year.



Also, even before that, the EPS mean high for DFW is below 50 from the 22nd until the end of the run. The mean QPF shows nearly an inch falling during that time period providing multiple pathways to winter wx for DFW.

[Ntxw]

Looks like GFS is going to break out with wintry weather on Christmas Day with the second storm (Canadian? lol)

[JayDT]

Is there still a good chance that the GFS is underestimating the cold?? Or losing the cold that it had a few days ago like it usually does in the mid-range if im correct??

[Ntxw]

I know everyone is focusing on the upcoming potential for winter weather in Texas but I can't help but be pleased by the 00z Euro EPS for the New Year. WCAN is reloading with cold and it looks like we could see another dump heading into the 1st of the year.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121 ... am_360.png

Also, even before that, the EPS mean high for DFW is below 50 from the 22nd until the end of the run. The mean QPF shows nearly an inch falling during that time period providing multiple pathways to winter wx for DFW.

Yeah, it does look good. Hard to focus on that though with wintry weather potential in 5-7 days~!

[snowballzzz]

Good morning, all. I've been following this forum for over 5 years and I'm an amateur in all aspects of reading weather, but thought I'd chime in and say hello to everyone. I live in Justin (north of Fort Worth). Looking forward to the potential Christmas storm and following very closely like the rest of you!

[spencer817]

It seriously boggles my mind as to why it avoids DFW on this run and many others.

I retract this statement

[Ntxw]

Good morning, all. I've been following this forum for over 5 years and I'm an amateur in all aspects of reading weather, but thought I'd chime in and say hello to everyone. I live in Justin (north of Fort Worth). Looking forward to the potential Christmas storm and following very closely like the rest of you!

Welcome! Glad you decided to dip your toes in. The details are going to be messy but we will get it right at some point

[Ntxw]

Snow in DFW and Austin on Christmas day per 12z GFS

[Texas Snow]

Good morning, all. I've been following this forum for over 5 years and I'm an amateur in all aspects of reading weather, but thought I'd chime in and say hello to everyone. I live in Justin (north of Fort Worth). Looking forward to the potential Christmas storm and following very closely like the rest of you!

Welcome. Hang on tight, its gonna be a crazy ride.

[Portastorm]

Good morning, all. I've been following this forum for over 5 years and I'm an amateur in all aspects of reading weather, but thought I'd chime in and say hello to everyone. I live in Justin (north of Fort Worth). Looking forward to the potential Christmas storm and following very closely like the rest of you!

Welcome!! Thanks for posting and feel free to chime in whenever you like. The more, the merrier around here.

[Ntxw]

And then the motherload of cold descends the northern plains as the system passes



1058mb

[Texas Snow]

It seriously boggles my mind as to why it avoids DFW on this run and many others.

I retract this statement

[Ntxw]

DFW gets to single digits

[Yukon Cornelius]

Anything I should warm my Oklahoma friends that are coming down for a hunt here on Christmas Eve about? From what I’ve seen and I could be totally wrong but most of Oklahoma looks clear until maybe about Lawton.

[spencer817]

My gosh highs in teens lows in the singles 2 consecutive days..

[hriverajr]

What I'm noticing so far (through 192 hrs) about this 12z GFS run is that the upper low out west is not as well organized as in previous runs. Looks more like a deep upper short-wave trough and not a bowling ball upper low like previous runs showed.

However Snow does break out over southwest and Central Texas right around the start of christmas. The trough is not a bowling ball.. it is a little bit more progressive and deeper.... Many runs to go

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi -- I hold with long standing idea of large scale snow/ice threat Texas to northeast at Christmas week. MJO rotation into 7,8 lights the match. Negative EPO/WPO couplet develops and very tough for cold not to win out with that as troughs cant hit and hold in west. Cold pushes