Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Temp output on this run is trash... next run

Front stalls as for 4 days on the TX/LA border... yeah, no, that isn’t happening

The models have pretty much been consistently showing that the coldest anomalies have a very hard time making it east of the I-35 corridor. Coldest anomalies have been confined to the hill country and west TX.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Temp output on this run is trash... next run

Front stalls as for 4 days on the TX/LA border... yeah, no, that isn’t happening

The models have pretty much been consistently showing that the coldest anomalies have a very hard time making it east of the I-35 corridor. Coldest anomalies have been confined to the hill country and west TX.

Your statement is different than what I’m questioning. I think the anomalies will be more extreme. Arctic fronts just don’t hang up on the gulf coast. They slide right into it.

[iorange55]

The mid-range curse is real.

On a serious note: It’s all still there. Precip, cold air, two storms...the temps will go up and down for the next few days until we get closer.

[ronyan]

This looks fairly extreme. Also no hint of +PNA in this forecast.

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing that bothers me is that the GFS loses all consistency on its handling of the ULL once it reaches Arizona. It has been rather consistent up until that point, but afterward, the evolution is dramatically different with each run. Back to back runs have showed it either swinging through, immediately shearing out, or even retrograding SW until its well off the coast of California.

[Cpv17]

Temp output on this run is trash... next run

Front stalls as for 4 days on the TX/LA border... yeah, no, that isn’t happening

The models have pretty much been consistently showing that the coldest anomalies have a very hard time making it east of the I-35 corridor. Coldest anomalies have been confined to the hill country and west TX.

Your statement is different than what I’m questioning. I think the anomalies will be more extreme. Arctic fronts just don’t hang up on the gulf coast. They slide right into it.

Oh I totally agree with you. It makes no sense for an Artic airmass to just hang up like that. I was just stating what the models have been showing.

[Ntxw]

This looks fairly extreme. Also no hint of +PNA in this forecast.

-400s for the ESRL is fairly rare. I think only one instance has it gone -4SD or more for the EPO, I'd have to go back and look at the daily values.

[ronyan]

https://preview.ibb.co/kZOZ76/4indices_1.png

This looks fairly extreme. Also no hint of +PNA in this forecast.

-400s for the ESRL is fairly rare. I think only one instance has it gone -4SD or more for the EPO, I'd have to go back and look at the daily values.

Decmeber 2009 is the last time I see for -4SDs. -5SD occurred in December 1983. Is there a way to query this data? If not I may build a page for efficient search of the daily values.

[stormlover2013]

Gfs new run isn’t anything special

[JDawg512]

Rain has really picked up in intensity over the last 30-45 min. Heavy rain falling. It's a good thing it's not at or below freezing today. As I said lastnight, love rain as long as it stays liquid...

[JDawg512]

So far just passing an inch here at the Rain Cave. Keep it coming!

[Ntxw]

https://preview.ibb.co/kZOZ76/4indices_1.png

This looks fairly extreme. Also no hint of +PNA in this forecast.

-400s for the ESRL is fairly rare. I think only one instance has it gone -4SD or more for the EPO, I'd have to go back and look at the daily values.

Decmeber 2009 is the last time I see for -4SDs. -5SD occurred in December 1983. Is there a way to query this data? If not I may build a page for efficient search of the daily values.

Unfortunately the EPO is not one records are kept as well as others that benefit the east coast (Atlantic indexes )such as NAO/AO. You will get a variety of NAO data and pages but not so much the EPO.

[Cpv17]

Gfs new run isn’t anything special

That’s because it’s in the mid range. The GFS has been horrible with the mid range forecast. Every single time it gets within 5 to 10 days from happening the GFS completely loses the storm and the cold air. That’s why we shouldn’t really take it seriously right now. By Wednesday we will know a lot more. Literally from hours 240 to 384 the GFS will have the brutal cold and then once it gets under 240 it will slowly start to lose it with each passing run. This is normal. Nothing surprising. For example, at hour 276 on the latest run of the GFS it has the DFW area at 29 degrees. If we forward the clock to Monday evening, 48 hours from now would be at hour 228 & I bet that 29 degrees will be more like in the mid 30’s.

[aggiecutter]

Can you say southern plains major winter storm. Yes, you can:

[Cpv17]

You beat me to it lol I was just about to post that.

[Ntxw]

While we wait for the 0z runs

From Dr. Ventrice

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/942110852039274506

[SnowintheFalls]

Is it sad that here it is Saturday night and all I can seem to think about is what the 0z will bring?? The anticipation for each run is brutal at this point!

[South Texas Storms]

Is it sad that here it is Saturday night and all I can seem to think about is what the 0z will bring?? The anticipation for each run is brutal at this point!

No I think most of us feel the same way!

[wxman57]

Is it sad that here it is Saturday night and all I can seem to think about is what the 0z will bring?? The anticipation for each run is brutal at this point!

No I think most of us feel the same way!

I will sleep just fine. I can wait until Thursday for the mesoscale models to come into play. Nothing that comes in overnight will mean anything as far as next weekend.

[Tireman4]

Is it sad that here it is Saturday night and all I can seem to think about is what the 0z will bring?? The anticipation for each run is brutal at this point!

No I think most of us feel the same way!

I will sleep just fine. I can wait until Thursday for the mesoscale models to come into play. Nothing that comes in overnight will mean anything as far as next weekend.

And that my friends are the wise words of a grizzled vet. He knows not to even worry until late week. I totally agree with him. This is all just eye candy until the later week models come in.