Texas Winter 2017-2018

Winter Weather Discussion

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2321 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:36 pm

Even our local news weatherman has been talking about all the social media postings of this potential wx event. As I post on one of their Facebook pages, don't hate on the postings, we here in this part of the country are sick of the warm winters, and we all wish for the polar opposite. My friends in the NE hate their winters, not because of the snow and travel issues, but because of how long their winters last, and the back breaking job of shoveling the driveway and sidewalks.

I love weather, I love watching the models and wondering what will happen, but I also know I live in Texas, and I have a better chance of seeing a Tornado on Christmas than snow. Don't hate player, hate the game.... Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2322 Postby utweather » Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:52 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Step away from the GFS till Wednesday to cut down on potential anger management issues. :lol:


Yeah in the late 90s I would watch the GFS 10 days out in the winter time and it would show ice age type high pressures systems. After a couple of years of disappointment I learned to stop looking that far out.

Edit: It would always be 10 days away until spring came :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2323 Postby OKMet83 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:17 pm

I have not posted in here in sometime but wanted to add to all the comments remember guys/gals Today is ONLY Sunday... Plenty of time for Change you were warned earlier in the week it could disappear and come back... It's typical of potent changes (Models don't handle well) If we don't see change by Wednesday then you can panic... I still suspect a Winter storm likely Ice not Snow will occur across portions of the SRN Plains next weekend..
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2324 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:35 pm

and now the Euro is coming in warm Christmas Eve

Oh these models... :lol:

Light snow in Dallas on Christmas along the front
Last edited by Brent on Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2325 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:50 pm

Brent wrote:and now the Euro is coming in warm Christmas Eve

Oh these models... :lol:

I understand that it’s most likely not correct, but why is euro showing that with such a strong western trough and high pressure cell over Alaska? Is it backing off on the cold temps in the source region?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2326 Postby SnowintheFalls » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:51 pm

This is from Steve McCauley. Not looking good as far as winter weather.


"We still have a few patches of mist and drizzle off to our east, but sunshine is coming in from the west. We could see additional breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon, but the clouds will roll back in this evening.

The next chances of rain for north Texas will be tomorrow and Tuesday. The best - though perhaps NOT ALL - of the rain, however, will be to the SE of the Metroplex on Monday, but then a 100% coverage of rain is expected for north Texas on Tuesday! And this time, a few thunderstorms will also be possible, but nothing severe is likely.

And finally, the Stat Method continues to show NO sleet, NO freezing rain, and NO snow through Christmas Day.

And now to finish my shoppin' !"
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2327 Postby spencer817 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:53 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:This is from Steve McCauley. Not looking good as far as winter weather.


"We still have a few patches of mist and drizzle off to our east, but sunshine is coming in from the west. We could see additional breaks in the cloud cover this afternoon, but the clouds will roll back in this evening.

The next chances of rain for north Texas will be tomorrow and Tuesday. The best - though perhaps NOT ALL - of the rain, however, will be to the SE of the Metroplex on Monday, but then a 100% coverage of rain is expected for north Texas on Tuesday! And this time, a few thunderstorms will also be possible, but nothing severe is likely.

And finally, the Stat Method continues to show NO sleet, NO freezing rain, and NO snow through Christmas Day.

And now to finish my shoppin' !"

Better luck next year. :/
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2328 Postby iorange55 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:57 pm

Euro showing some precip around on Christmas as cold pushes in.

Y’all giving up too early...I’m telling ya!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2329 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:58 pm

iorange55 wrote:Euro showing some precip around on Christmas as cold pushes in.

Y’all giving up too early...I’m telling ya!


Looks like the cmc some ice or maybe snow as it ends
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2330 Postby starsfan65 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:59 pm

iorange55 wrote:Euro showing some precip around on Christmas as cold pushes in.

Y’all giving up too early...I’m telling ya!

We have a week until this system come in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2331 Postby OKMet83 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:07 pm

Christmas Eve Blizzard 2009 showed up in Long-Range and on 12/17-12/18ish it went away if I recall correctly showed a warmer pattern and once again reappeared a few days prior to the event. The extent of it of course was not fully known until it commenced... MODELS Do NOT handle big pattern changes well.... Hang tight and let's give it time!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2332 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:10 pm

Brent wrote:
iorange55 wrote:Euro showing some precip around on Christmas as cold pushes in.

Y’all giving up too early...I’m telling ya!


Looks like the cmc has some ice or maybe snow as it ends


Yeah, some sleet up around the Red River on the 27th. It also has temps in Houston into the upper 70s on Christmas. I'll be in Baton Rouge next weekend. None of the models is handling the long-range pattern very well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2333 Postby Ntxw » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:13 pm

Euro went from +PNA eastern trough to severe -PNA western trough in one cycle :lol:

So euro went to GFS, then switched, followed by the GFS caving to Euro, then Euro going the opposite way...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2334 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:16 pm

Oh those games the models play...... :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2335 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:23 pm

If the cold never materializes and just keeps getting "pushed" 5-10 days or so, isn't that typical of a La Nina scenario anyways? Kind of what happened the past two winters we were La Nina as well. Climo says the cold "should" get here, but La Nina says not so fast. A few months ago were we not forecast to be in El Nino then all of a sudden things started flipping back to Nina?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2336 Postby CaptinCrunch » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:38 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:If the cold never materializes and just keeps getting "pushed" 5-10 days or so, isn't that typical of a La Nina scenario anyways? Kind of what happened the past two winters we were La Nina as well. Climo says the cold "should" get here, but La Nina says not so fast. A few months ago were we not forecast to be in El Nino then all of a sudden things started flipping back to Nina?


No, the model solutions have nothing to do with it being La Nina or El Nino. The last 2 winters were El Nino and Weak La Nina/Neutral, and both record warm winters.

As I have said before, La Nina & El Nino have more to do with precipitation or the lack of than they do with temperatures.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2337 Postby Brent » Sun Dec 17, 2017 2:40 pm

La nina can still have extreme cold though see 2010-2011 its just that overall warmth prevails. All it really takes is one setup working out around here to make a winter
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2338 Postby dhweather » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:06 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro went from +PNA eastern trough to severe -PNA western trough in one cycle :lol:

So euro went to GFS, then switched, followed by the GFS caving to Euro, then Euro going the opposite way...


Instead of cross-polar flow, we get bi-polar model runs? :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2339 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:23 pm

Why am i not surprised. I hope the storm comes back in the guidance, but still time for changes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#2340 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Dec 17, 2017 3:32 pm

There is still a lot to like about the 12z Euro runs, plenty of rain for C & E Texas and a loaded up source region by the end of the EPS run.

Image
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