Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

In other news, DFW only had a high of 53F today which is slightly below normal. Forecast and models had us brushing 60s, above normal. Socked in clouds next few days so may end up low side with highs. For once we take the under vs the over! Small wins at a time..

I noticed that there has been a lot of overrunning of moisture/clouds from the Pacific lately. That would bode well for a winter storm I would imagine?

[South Texas Storms]

In other news, DFW only had a high of 53F today which is slightly below normal. Forecast and models had us brushing 60s, above normal. Socked in clouds next few days so may end up low side with highs. For once we take the under vs the over! Small wins at a time..

I noticed that there has been a lot of overrunning of moisture/clouds from the Pacific lately. That would bode well for a winter storm I would imagine?

We have had an active subtropical jet lately which has been helping to keep us in an active pattern with lots of clouds and rain chances. So if this pattern persists, yeah it would lead to an increasing risk of frozen precip when the cold air arrives.

[katheria]

Will someone message me when it actually starts snowing where i can look out the windows?

Don't think ive ever seen this many outcomes from the gfs model....lol 70s to single digits blahh

[EnnisTx]

00z GFS has a couple inches of snow across DFW at 162 hours.

[Ntxw]

In other news, DFW only had a high of 53F today which is slightly below normal. Forecast and models had us brushing 60s, above normal. Socked in clouds next few days so may end up low side with highs. For once we take the under vs the over! Small wins at a time..

I noticed that there has been a lot of overrunning of moisture/clouds from the Pacific lately. That would bode well for a winter storm I would imagine?

We have had an active subtropical jet lately which has been helping to keep us in an active pattern with lots of clouds and rain chances. So if this pattern persists, yeah it would lead to an increasing risk of frozen precip when the cold air arrives.

Agreed. We have string of -SOI and Westerly Wind Burst near the dateline. Tropics wise not very Nina esque moisture pattern short term

[Brent]

Euro is a bit colder Friday too and wet, temps fall into the 40s during the rain

Saturday starts cold but is warmer with temps near 60 in DFW Cold air totally retreats back into Oklahoma

[Cpv17]

Euro is a bit colder Friday too and wet, temps fall into the 40s during the rain

Saturday starts cold but is warmer with temps near 60 in DFW Cold air totally retreats back into Oklahoma

Yeah that makes zero sense lol not happening

[Brent]

Christmas Eve morning starts near 50 in DFW

I think the Euro is lost...

Houston well into the 70s on Christmas Eve

[somethingfunny]

I wouldn't trust a model run that shows cold air retreating northward as a warm front underneath a 1050mb+ high. That is not something that ever happens. Surface temperatures will be colder with this weekend's front than the models (even the cold runs IMO) are showing, the only thing that's really in question for me is moisture and lift.

[Brent]

I'm about to just stop looking at the Euro but I wanna see Christmas.

Front finally struggles in Christmas Eve night lol

Christmas Day... Dallas below freezing all day... maybe even in the 20s. No precip.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro looks kinda similar to the Canadian. Some light freezing rain developing across central TX on Christmas Day.

[Brent]

Houston just barely above freezing with rain on the day after Christmas

DFW dry, barely gets above freezing

[Tammie]

Latest thoughts on our Christmas system from the Fort Worth NWS:
"Finally, while it`s apparent that a major ice and snow event is
becoming increasingly UNLIKELY for the Friday-Saturday period,
robust troughing and associated baroclinicity will likely be
lurking to our north by Sunday and into Christmas Day. The past
several runs of the GFS and Canadian have indicated the potential
for banded precipitation to develop in the cold airmass in
response to intense mid-level frontogenetic circulations. Should
precipitation develop, it would fall to the surface as light snow.
Far too much uncertainty exists in this potential, however, to
mention this in the official forecast grids at this time, but this
scenario certainly bears close attention."

[Yukon Cornelius]

Very dense fog up here this morning. I haven’t seen it like this in quite a while.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our local forecasting office is mentioning snow but is keeping the chance of it in Oklahoma. This is the first time they’ve discussed it. Also in the forecast, Thursday with a high of 72...

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has snow for me in Baton Rouge Christmas Eve. I'm sure it's correct.

[orangeblood]

Well it appears Santa is bringing more than just presents with him, he's bringing the entire North Pole climate with him as well. The Long Range Ensembles are putting the entire North American Continent in the Ice Box, I'd imagine, this time period starting next week might be the multi-day coldest relative to normal we'll see all winter - hopefully we can get a storm or two out of it

[1900hurricane]

I feel like there is a good chance the Madden-Julian forecasts whiffed due to the failure of tropical development in the Tropical Western Pacific with 97W. The invest is getting squashed right now by surging trades and drier air. That may have lost some of the upward momentum in the upper portions of the troposphere, collapsing the Madden-Julian signal prior to arriving in the Western Hemisphere.

[DonWrk]

The 6z GFS clobbers Oklahoma after Christmas and before New Years.

[snowballzzz]

What is the difference in this upcoming potential winter weather event and the storm of December 2013? Didn't the models lose track of that, just like what we are experiencing now? What is the main difference?