WPAC: KAI-TAK - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ONCE AGAIN UNDERGONE A DEEP
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM CYCLE CHARACTERIZED BY OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MSI LOOP SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BEFORE IT WAS OBSCURED BY THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 152222Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WHICH LINED
UP WELL WITH THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND SATCON DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. TS 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 32W WILL FLATTEN TO A WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THE UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE VISAYAN ISLANDS
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, THE
CYCLONE WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) WEST OF PALAWAN AND
RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS IT INTERACTS WITH A
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS. THE WIND SURGE WILL ALSO
EXPAND THE 35-KNOT WIND RADII.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING STR IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND DRIVE
TS KAI-TAK TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED AFTER TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW AND STRONG VWS PERSISTS. DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS
REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Quite a difference between JTWC and KNES.

TPPN10 PGTW 160300

A. TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)

B. 16/0230Z

C. 12.61N

D. 125.82E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


DREW


TXPQ27 KNES 160204
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 32W (KAI-TAK)

B. 15/2030Z

C. 12.4N

D. 126.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR CI NUMBER BASED ON REANALYSIS. SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR, TIGHTLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS
IN A DT OF 2.0 USING THE SHEAR PATTERN. MET OF 2.5 BASED ON 24 HOUR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND WAS ADJUSTED DOWN IN DEFINING THE PT OF 2.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...ZHU

[xtyphooncyclonex]

One terrifying analog: Uring/Thelma of 1991



Kai-tak has been dumping around 780 mm of rain in Guiuan, 400 mm in Borongan and 200 mm in Tacloban for the past 24 hours

[mrbagyo]

[ejeraldmc]

At least 3 dead, 6 missing due to #UrdujaPH - NDRRMC


Kai-tak is moving erratically and slowly.

[mrbagyo]

Kai-Tak/ Urduja has made landfall around 1:30PM (PST) in San Policarpio, Samar according to Pagasa

[euro6208]

The drenching continues...

WDPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO WEST NOW
PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T2.0 TO T3.5 (30 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
DIVERGENCE TO WEST OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER, STRONG EASTERLIES ARE
CREATING A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE SUPPORTIVE NEAR 28 TO 29 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TS 32W IS
TRACKING WESTWARD AS STEERING TRANSITIONS FROM THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST TO ANOTHER RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE NORTHWESTERN STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS TS 32W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
STRONG WIND SHEAR PERSISTS AND THE LOW LEVER CIRCULATION TRACKS OVER
VISAYAN ISLANDS. AROUND TAU 48 TS 32W WILL REEMERGE AND
RECONSOLIDATE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. AROUND
THIS TIME A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO FEED INTO THE
REGION IMPARTING ENERGY TO LLCC. WIND SHEAR AROUND THIS TIME IS
FORECAST TO RELAX SOME BUT REMAIN OVERALL MARGINAL. DUE TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TS 32W WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AND
TS 32W WILL REINTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS. THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL
EXTEND THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK
SPEED. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Center fully exposed near/over Samar and Masbate, with the bulk of convection displaced well to the west. A relief to those in Eastern Visayas, which received high rainfall amounts these last few days.

[euro6208]

No longer expected to strengthen.

WDPN31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY
EXPOSED AS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED AND SHEARED
WESTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND ON A COMPOSITE
REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ON
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED WITH STRONG
(30+ KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A WESTWARD
OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 32W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS. TD 32W WILL
STRUGGLE AS STRONG VWS PERSISTS AND THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
VISAYAN ISLANDS. AT BEST, IT WILL MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY. BY TAU 36,
TD 32W WILL EMERGE AND RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST WEST OF PALAWAN. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO A NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE EVENT IN THE SCS
WHICH WILL ABSORB AND ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SPREADING AT THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
WEST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25
KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5 (25 TO 35
KNOTS), NOTING MINIMUM PRESSURE OBSERVED FROM NEARBY MASBATE CITY
REPORTING 1004MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF STRONG
DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF TD 32W, HOWEVER, PROMINENT SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS CREATING STRONG (25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS
REMAIN WARM AND CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR 27 TO 28 CELSIUS,
ALTHOUGH RECENT LAND INTERACTION AND THE HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT HAS
SEVERELY WEAKENED THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY TD 32W IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 32W GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 24 TD 32W
WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RECONSOLIDATION, AND LIKEWISE, SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION TO 30 KNOTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES UNOBSTRUCTED BY
LAND AND WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO RELAX. AROUND THIS TIME A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL BRING GALE FORCE WINDS COVERING A VAST
REGION OF THE SCS AND IN THE VICINITY OF TD 32W. WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48, AND ACTING IN CONCERT WITH THE
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, TD 32 WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ONLY SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AND TRAJECTORY, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

EURO has Kai-Tak restrengthening and peaking at 989 mb and makes a beeline for Southern Vietnam and the Malay Peninsula.

GFS at 971 mb and misses Vietnam and dissipates before reaching the Peninsula.

[doomhaMwx]

Crossing, or has just crossed, the northern portion of Palawan island. It appears that it will remain off the coast of Vietnam.
Models still show it reaching the Malay Peninsula in about 5 days from now as a weak system, and possibly moving into the NIO basin.

TS 1726 (Kai-tak)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 18 December 2017

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 18 December>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°35' (10.6°)
E119°05' (119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 9.1N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 118.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T1.0 FROM PGTW. TD 32W IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL
CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE CAUSING INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH
WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z
IS 7 FEET.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 180851
TCSWNP

A. 32W (KAI-TAK)

B. 18/0830Z

C. 10.7N

D. 118.7E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY SPIRAL CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY GREATER THAN 1.25 DG, SMALL SIZE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

TPPN10 PGTW 180908

A. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)

B. 17/0840Z

C. 10.72N

D. 118.63E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT YIELD 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LOWE

[euro6208]

Regains TS strength.

WDPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 591 NM
EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
181800Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS 35 KNOTS WHICH IS BASED ON AN 181420Z ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TS 32W WIND FIELD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TS 32W
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TS
32W AT THIS TIME. THIS MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST REASONING
FOR THE REGENERATED SYSTEM.
B. TS 32W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING STR LOCATED TO
THE NORTHWEST. THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURGE EVENT. THE DIFFERENTIATION
BETWEEN THE SURGE WINDS AND THE OUTER EDGE OF TS 32W IS DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE. REGARDLESS, IN THE VICINITY OF TS 32W THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH
BOTH THE SURGE EVENT AND TS 32W. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING THAT A WARM CORE CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN COHESION AS
IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE BRIEFLY PEAKING AT 40
KNOTS AT TAU 48. TS 32W WILL THEN DECREASE IN INTENSITY.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND WEAKEN TS 32W AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TS 32W
WILL DECREASE IN SIZE BUT THE SURGE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK MOTION. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL UNABLE TO
DIFFERENTIATE THE SURGE EVENT WIND FIELD FROM THE TS 32W WIND
FIELD. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

With Kai-tak back at TS strength, the ACE count resumes.

System: KAI-TAK (32W)
Date & Time Vmax ACE PDI Class
(kt) Inst Sum Inst Sum
------------------------------------------------------------------------
12/13/2017 18Z: 25, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, XX
12/14/2017 0Z: 30, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, XX
12/14/2017 6Z: 30, 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.000000, 0.000000, XX
12/14/2017 12Z: 35, 0.1225, 0.1225, 0.042875, 0.042875, XX
12/14/2017 18Z: 40, 0.1600, 0.2825, 0.064000, 0.106875, XX
12/15/2017 0Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.4850, 0.091125, 0.198000, XX
12/15/2017 6Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.6875, 0.091125, 0.289125, XX
12/15/2017 12Z: 45, 0.2025, 0.8900, 0.091125, 0.380250, XX
12/15/2017 18Z: 45, 0.2025, 1.0925, 0.091125, 0.471375, XX
12/16/2017 0Z: 50, 0.2500, 1.3425, 0.125000, 0.596375, XX
12/16/2017 6Z: 45, 0.2025, 1.5450, 0.091125, 0.687500, XX
12/16/2017 12Z: 40, 0.1600, 1.7050, 0.064000, 0.751500, XX
12/16/2017 18Z: 35, 0.1225, 1.8275, 0.042875, 0.794375, XX
12/17/2017 0Z: 30, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/17/2017 6Z: 25, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/17/2017 12Z: 25, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/18/2017 0Z: 25, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/18/2017 6Z: 25, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/18/2017 12Z: 25, 0.0000, 1.8275, 0.000000, 0.794375, XX
12/18/2017 18Z: 35, 0.1225, 1.9500, 0.042875, 0.837250, XX
------------------------------------------------------------------------

[doomhaMwx]

More than 40 people dead, dozens missing and more than 90,000 displaced, mostly in Eastern Visayas.
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/scitech/ ... gasa/story

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 22//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES
SHOWING SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 190143Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN EDGE OF
SWATH CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND
IS ALSO BASED ON THE OSCAT IMAGE SHOWING A REGION OF GALE FORCE
WINDS RELATED TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT EXTENDING A SUBSTANTIAL
DISTANCE WESTWARD WITH A REGION OF 35 KNOT BARBS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINNING TO RELAX
WITH ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. SSTS IN THE REGION
ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 28 CELSIUS. TS 32W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 32W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS EXPANDING THE REACH OF GALE FORCE WINDS
AND IMPARTING ENERGY INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. TS 32W WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN MARGINAL HELPING TO MITIGATE WARM CORE CONSOLIDATION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RELAX AND WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE. TS 32W WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER EAST OF THE MALAY PENINSULA, AND FULLY
DISSIPATE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER MALAYSIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO WAIVER AS THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN MORE
SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT THAN EXPECTED, SUGGESTING SOME STEERING INFLUENCE
FROM THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE
ACCOUNTING FOR. OVERALL THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 32W (KAI-TAK)
WARNING NR 26//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF
AN AREA OF INTENSE CENTRAL CONVECTION, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. MSI ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW
STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL SURGE FLOW
ADVECTING STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS OF
THE SYSTEM. A 200138Z ASCAT IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE FLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THIS ASCAT DATA.
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, SST
VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27 TO 28C. TS 32W IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SURGE FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE.
B. TS 32W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE
EAST-WEST ORIENTED, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSUMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR AND AFUM, THE
BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TS 32W
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WEAKENS AND
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HINDERS DEVELOPMENT. TS KAI-TAK WILL
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN