Texas Winter 2017-2018

[MississippiWx]

So how cold could we be talking if those mega highs did verify??

Depends on how cold the air actually is Canada when it happens. Currently large area of -10s, some -20s in the northwest territories. -40s are just north of the Canadian archipelago. As the dome of high pressure builds, the air will get colder and get pushed further south out of the Arctic. The stronger the high the more intense the push.

If we start seeing -30s sink south along the Canadian Prairies then it will get quite cold, should such a high develop.

If there is a 1060HP+ high pressure dome sitting in Montana early next week, DFW will be in the single digits no question. Big IF

I don’t care who you are... that’s cold!

Would be very hard to get precip to stick around with that kind of push of cold. Maybe on the back end once the high pressure has relaxed a bit.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/942821145711169536




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/942475035092176896

[JayDT]

So how cold could we be talking if those mega highs did verify??

Depends on how cold the air actually is Canada when it happens. Currently large area of -10s, some -20s in the northwest territories. -40s are just north of the Canadian archipelago. As the dome of high pressure builds, the air will get colder and get pushed further south out of the Arctic. The stronger the high the more intense the push.

If we start seeing -30s sink south along the Canadian Prairies then it will get quite cold, should such a high develop.

If there is a 1060HP+ high pressure dome sitting in Montana early next week, DFW will be in the single digits no question. Big IF

Single digits would be insane! I have been so focused on wanting a winter storm that i hadn’t even paid much attention to the extreme cold potential lol

[Quixotic]

Single digits unlikely. It’s been 21 years. Urbanization hasn’t helped the cause.

[Ntxw]

Single digits unlikely. It’s been 21 years. Urbanization hasn’t helped the cause.

There were 4m+ people in 1996 when it last happened. It's not like urbanization didn't exist back then. I think it's overall warmer climate regime doesn't help. 2011 really should have done it. But snowstorm on the back end brought in clouds and halted the cooling.

[Brent]

Personally i think the gfs is probably overdone on cold but if it did become a real trend to see a high pressure like that if we were clear and calm single digits could easily happen i see no reason urbanization would stop it

But thats a lot of big ifs and I'll be skeptical til the timeframe gets closer

[Quixotic]

Single digits unlikely. It’s been 21 years. Urbanization hasn’t helped the cause.

There were 4m+ people in 1996 when it last happened. It's not like urbanization didn't exist back then. I think it's overall warmer climate regime doesn't help. 2011 really should have done it. But snowstorm on the back end brought in clouds and halted the cooling.

I hope you and the models are right. I’ll just say that in 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2015 I hit single digits and I’m 20 miles NE of DFW. I lived two miles away from DFW for 6 years and while everybody else got crushed with cold and winter precip I was always at the bottom. It’s really a tough nut to crack. If I’m wrong, I will get on here and admit it, but it’s going to take some 1989, 1983 and 1899 type stuff to get there now. Right up on 8 MM people now.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, I know it will get cold for a while, but what do we need for a decent shot at a winter storm? We supposedly have an active stj, but I guess the timing is off? I'm not sure

[Ntxw]

Single digits unlikely. It’s been 21 years. Urbanization hasn’t helped the cause.

There were 4m+ people in 1996 when it last happened. It's not like urbanization didn't exist back then. I think it's overall warmer climate regime doesn't help. 2011 really should have done it. But snowstorm on the back end brought in clouds and halted the cooling.

I hope you and the models are right. I’ll just say that in 2009, 2011, 2014 and 2015 I hit single digits and I’m 20 miles NE of DFW. I lived two miles away from DFW for 6 years and while everybody else got crushed with cold and winter precip I was always at the bottom. It’s really a tough nut to crack. If I’m wrong, I will get on here and admit it, but it’s going to take some 1989, 1983 and 1899 type stuff to get there now. Right up on 8 MM people now.

Neither me or models could be right . It's hard to get low in the central core no doubt. If we even get a 1060hp. That's like the equivalency of a cat 5. The odds of one forming are pretty low, and getting one to move in your direction even less.If you were playing odds 1046-1048 is usually ballpark for a potent blast, which would be your automatic guess. 1055+ are probably once every few years. 1060+ maybe 30 years?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, I know it will get cold for a while, but what do we need for a decent shot at a winter storm? We supposedly have an active stj, but I guess the timing is off? I'm not sure

We need a low to dig into the southwest, preferably along the US/MX border as cold air is moving in. That's what the model had prior but has since shifted further north and more sheared as the models got colder. Still time for it to change but the cutoff in the SW is probably gone.

The closest model for a storm right now is the Canadian. It digs furthest south and holds it together longest. Use that and hope the timing is perfect,

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy moly. Im saving pics from this run.

Question, do all arctic 1060 MB highs essentially hold the same cold temps, or dry air?

[Ntxw]

Holy moly. Im saving pics from this run.

Question, do all arctic 1060 MB highs essentially hold the same cold temps, or dry air?

I think so. Seldom is one not if any. I think there have been 2 since 1950. 1962 and 1983. DFW was single digits in both, multiple days.

[Ntxw]

Getting to the NAM range. It says front comes through DFW between midnight and 3AM Friday. 60s to 40, looks mostly dry.

[TexasBreeze]

Could the 1060+ highs be the winter time equivalent of the gfs model over strengthening sub 900 hurricanes the model showed off/on this past hurricane season?

[bubba hotep]

00z 3k NAM is showing widespread 2.5-3" totals for the DFW area with this rain event. This would be a big deal, if it weren't for the models trolling us with slim snow chances in the long range.

[Brent]

00z 3k NAM is showing widespread 2.5-3" totals for the DFW area with this rain event. This would be a big deal, if it weren't for the models trolling us with slim snow chances in the long range.

It's got something resembling a squall line... I can't even remember the last squall line

much less in the daytime!!

[wxman57]

There is still no cold air in the source region of northern and western Canada. Temperatures up there are in the teens and 20s (some 30s).



By Christmas Eve, there is some cold air in central Canada, but nothing extreme. Minus 20s and 30s. That wouldn't support any massive high center. Something's not right...

[Brent]

GFS nothing exciting through Christmas Eve, even the snow upstream is pretty much non-existent this run

[Yukon Cornelius]

0z GFS says no snow for Oklahoma either.

[iorange55]

“Something’s not right” is correct. I can honestly say I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Cold

Extreme cold

Snow

Ice

60s and sunny

Zombies? Possibly.