Texas Winter 2017-2018

[hriverajr]

Last 5 or 6 runs of gfs...trof continues to get more progressive. It is a trend....

[Ralph's Weather]

Friday does still look interesting with a bit of lingering post frontal precip and temps in the 30s. NAM shows much more moisture than GFS, I lean towards more moisture considering the active STJ. NAM very close to showing some freezing rain with surface temps in the 30s and 850 temps near 50.

[stormlover2013]

looking more and more like it will be warmer.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS brings warming southerly winds into Texas by late Christmas Day. Steadily warming temps the 26th-28th. Ice storm pushed north into northern Missouri and Iowa. OK, I'm sure THAT'S correct...

Getting more confident that Friday's front will only bring seasonably-cold temps to Texas. No major Arctic front. Frozen precip looks unlikely through Christmas. Still no really cold air in west and NW Canada, and the air across the Pole in Siberia is a good bit warmer than normal (still cold, though). Can't get really cold here unless it's cold to our north (source region).

It's almost funny. From ice storm to temps well above normal across Texas on the 28th. Lows in the mid to upper 60s...

[Ralph's Weather]

looking more and more like it will be warmer.

During what time period?

[wxman57]

looking more and more like it will be warmer.

During what time period?

Post-Christmas, warmer. Of course, that assumes that today's GFS run is correct. Big assumption. I tried to get you guys some snow for Christmas but it didn't work out.

[starsfan65]

looking more and more like it will be warmer.

During what time period?

Post-Christmas, warmer. Of course, that assumes that today's GFS run is correct. Big assumption. I tried to get you guys some snow for Christmas but it didn't work out.

It better not warm up after Christmas.

[iorange55]

Interesting trends in the 12z models so far. Looks like most are shifting the trough axis a bit farther west for the storm system around Christmas. Could bring back frozen precip chances across portions of North TX as the disturbance lifts out.

And now that wxman57 has declared no snow for Christmas, we’re definitely going to see snow. It never felt right having a heat lover on our side.

[ronyan]

looking more and more like it will be warmer.

During what time period?

Post-Christmas, warmer. Of course, that assumes that today's GFS run is correct. Big assumption. I tried to get you guys some snow for Christmas but it didn't work out.

Playing a bit of reverse psychology there? Snow miser shouldn't say that 'it didn't work out' six days prior to Christmas.

[stormlover2013]

just think this time last week, we were talking about ICE Storm and etc, now we are talking about it not really getting all that cold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

These models are more bipolar than some of my ex girlfriends...

[Brent]

These models better be out to lunch

What's the point of the long range gfs anyway? Might as well just throw darts at a dartboard to forecast

[stormlover2013]

EURO anD CMC also warmer

[Ralph's Weather]

If we can get a surface low to form over Louisiana on Friday we will have to watch for backside freezing rain. There is a good amount of moisture modeled as winds are out of the SW above 850mb. The NAM looks stronger with the reinforcing shot at it moves into Montana on Friday. The Canadian, Japanese and Navy are holding onto the idea of a SW cutoff low. THe GFS and Euro ensembles hold the SW energy back a bit more than the op runs.

[orangeblood]

CMC continues its trend towards a deeper/stronger S/W moving through Friday night...hasn't everyone learned their lesson from the last event earlier this month ?? Way too early to declare anything beyond 3 days

[Portastorm]

Yep orangeblood, that is true. The Great Austin Snow Event of 2017 wasn't even a "thing" until the NAM locked on to it about 24 hours prior. The GFS and Euro certainly didn't have it.

[Ralph's Weather]

Following the history of our recent systems this month I think you have to lean towards a stronger SW system, now temps are a huge wildcard.

[DonWrk]

Following the history of our recent systems this month I think you have to lean towards a stronger SW system, now temps are a huge wildcard.

And it’s funny that temps looked like the most solid bet of all lol. Go figure.

[Brent]

never thought we'd be worried about temperatures... like come on.

at least the GEFS looks cold through 192.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Yep orangeblood, that is true. The Great Austin Snow Event of 2017 wasn't even a "thing" until the NAM locked on to it about 24 hours prior. The GFS and Euro certainly didn't have it.

I went back and saved the model data from prior to that snow event. The GFS caught on about 48-60 hours in advance of the snow. Of course, it was way too dry. However, the vertical profiles were quite right 2-3 days prior to the event, meaning the entire precip column was predicted to be sub-freezing (snow).

Just took a look at the 12Z GFS through 384 hrs. Not even a freeze for central Houston through 16 days. Coldest is Christmas morning with a low of 33-35. It's amazing how much the models can change leading up to an event. About 4 straight days of every run predicting a major ice storm, followed by forecasts of normal to above-normal temps and no precip.